Irish general election: 25 February 2011

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Any chance that Labour will finish first? Either way, it'll be a FG-Lab grand coalition anyway, right?

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Breaking News: The Irish Green party withdraw from coaltion

Anti-climax

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Wouldn't it be fascinating if this happened?

So... Cowen would become leader again, by default?

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So, Martin well out in front. His supporters reportedly think that it's as good as wrapped up.

I don't know about Ireland, but these things very rarely are.

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The new leaders got a temporary bounce in the polls, but those always wear off pretty fast and there was no time for them to build up any real, solid support. Both parties got their biggest beatings in their history as a consequence

Bit like (but not the same really) Julia Gillard and Gordon Brown's 2007 Election-that-never-was.

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Labour appear to have at least arrested their decline, while SF may have peaked. (Gerry Adams has already been, and will continue to be, questioned in an almost mocking fashion about economic questions in the Republic. Quite a few journalists have caught him out already.)

Don't you think this strategy could backfire though? A lot of working class people don't have the greatest respect for economic experts these days.

True. But it's not that Adams's ideology is viewed as bananas that's the issue, it's that he clearly doesn't seem to actually understand the economic situation as is, and doesn't actually understand some of the simpler matters either (child benefit, VAT, etc.).

The media narrative has taken hold, and I don't see it shifting - every journalist Adams deals with between now and election day will try to further expose his weakness in this area - and more than a few will succeed. He can't be looking forward to debates either - the biggest story to emerge from the debates in 2007 was Adams's economic ignorance and how the others made fun of him.

That said, you're quite right in that I'm not sure how much many people care for this sort of thing - but I do think it will inhibit the potential reach of the Sinn Féin campaign and that Adams may come to be viewed as more of an electoral liability than an asset even if, as it seems, they're on course for their best result in modern times.

Maybe most people aren't big fans of a party so "passionate" about nationalism.

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Eamon Gilmore just Clegged his party.

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Eamon Gilmore just Clegged his party.

Possibly, but there are other possible approaches to coalition government than Clegg's.

True. Let's hope Labour hold their own in this.

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Does it qualify as a 'Grand Coalition'?