Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[Oakvale]

Ideologically speaking, someone like myself would be most similar to Fine Gael, right? I wouldn't be with Labor and I read that Gael is generally considered to be to the right though it seems to be a little more complex than that.

It's strange. Fianna Fáil have no ideology, veering from hard-right Thatcherism to populist psuedo-socialism (Bertie Ahern being the last real socialist in Irish politics, of course).

Fine Gael have traditionally not been all that different, but their Dublin TDs (Leo Varadkar et al) tend to be more right-wing in a European liberal kind of way. The glimmers of an actual ideology are there, you just have to look a bit.

So yeah, probably Fine Gael. maybe the PDs when they were around.

[Oakvale]

As something of a Labour hack I'm somewhat disappointed in the poll, but I'm almost adopting that old FF line of "the only poll that matters...".

I'm actually thinking the swing is from Labour to Fine Gael. Could be helped by the fact that Noonan performed very well in the last couple of weeks.

Anyway, hopefully it's just a blip...

EDIT: Also, the Independent's headline is going to be something like "FIANNA FAIL SURGE AHEAD OF SINN FÉIN".

[Oakvale]

As a postscript - the leader's debate will help Labour, assuming Kenny and Cowen are still around.

Also, I can't help but thinking that the muzzle FG have put on Kenny seems to be paying off... maybe Michael Noonan could be making a comeback some time soon.

[/Labour hack]

[Oakvale]

Plus - bonus question - if SF continue polling in the mid-teens or better, can Adams be reasonably excluded from the leadership debate when FF are polling around the same level?

Depends whether it's RTÉ hosting the debate or not. Assuming it is, they'll squirm their way out of allowing Adams to participate. If TV3 do one, though, I'd imagine Adams would be invited, providing their polling holds.

[Oakvale]

Plus - bonus question - if SF continue polling in the mid-teens or better, can Adams be reasonably excluded from the leadership debate when FF are polling around the same level?

Depends whether it's RTÉ hosting the debate or not. Assuming it is, they'll squirm their way out of allowing Adams to participate.

Simple - just have a debate between the two front runners only.

I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if they tried to organise a simple Cowen-Kenny debate. Even if Fianna Fáil are in fourth place and Labour or Sinn Féin are still riding high.

EDIT: Incidentally, have the media come up with their "Doherty [word beginning with D]" yet to describe Sinn Féin's surge?

[Oakvale]

There's apparently a poll out tomorrow showing FF at 8%, which was great until I realised it's apparently a Sunday Independent poll, and those are lousy.

[Oakvale]

Hopefully the slight FF bounce (and Martin's depressingly high ranking) is just a brief honeymoon effect and I won't have to flee the country.

Although given that the election's so soon a "honeymoon" period would probably save Fianna Fáil from annihilation.

[Oakvale]

It feels wrong to steal Jas' thunder by posting this (), but the traditionally most accurate Irish Times/MRBI poll shows -

FG 33%
Labour 24%
FF 15%
Sinn Féin 12%
Green 1%
Other 15%

Seems to be more or less the currrent state of things - very close to the MB poll.

[Oakvale]

There's not really much justification for a three-way debate instead of a five-way one, IMO. I mean, it's reasonable enough considering that they're the three biggest parties, etc, etc, but Martin's got as much hope of being Taoiseach as Gormley or Adams do.

Logically if RTÉ want to have a more limited debate it should really only be between Kenny and Gilmore, since the election's more or less going to be about jostling for influence in the inevitable FG/Labour coalition.

[Oakvale]

I actually quite like Fianna Fáil's proposal there. *feels unclean*

[Oakvale]

[/thread]

[Oakvale]

So Fine Gael is leading the polls and Epic Fail could remain the second party ? Ireland really depresses me...

That's pretty unlikely to happen.

[Oakvale]

I'm of the opinion that the best thing for the country in the long term is for either Fine Gael or Labour to go into government with a (near or otherwise) majority, with the second party becoming the opposition, so I'm perversely happy to see Fine Gael nearing majority levels of support, in purely political terms.

Because that basically consigns Fianna Fáil to the ash heap of history - a FG/Lab coalition allows FF to rebuild as the deault opposition party. People have short memories, and the pessimist in me thinks Fianna Fáil would be back in government far sooner than anyone would think once the next administration gets down to the fiscal dirty work that's necessary.

But with (as the most likely of these hypotheticals) Fine Gael + Independents in government versus a sizeable Labour, the situation's a win for both parties.

There's the long sought left/right divide, Fianna Fáil are an irrelevancy, and Fine Gael take their place as the centre-right party. As an admitted Labour hack, I also wouldn't be too distraught to see the next election been fought between Taoiseach Kenny and leader of the opposition Gilmore. [1]

That's just me being politically cynical, but I do think such a result would effectively end Fianna Fáil as a major player in Irish politics. They are not a party built for being in third place.

[1] I'd imagine there'd be some calls for Gilmore to go if he ended up as leader of the opposition instead of being in government, but I think that'd be silly considering Labour are likely to have their best performance ever.

[Oakvale]

I don't know if you can watch from outside Ireland, but someone here might find the TG4 debate amusing. There are subtitles.

Streaming.

[Oakvale]

Kenny being schooled on the core subjects of the Leaving Cert.



The debate is actually the best one yet.

[Oakvale]

Is there a certain percentage target where Fine Gael is likely to win a majority of seats?  I'll be interested to see how a wide spread between the first and second placed parties effects the proportionality of the Irish STV system. 

Most people place it in the high 30s. Around 38% could do it.

[Oakvale]

Going into hibernation until Election Day based on the latest Red C poll. Enda Kenny with an overall majority? *shudders*

[Oakvale]

Election day 2016?

I'll awake next Friday to spend the night wandering the streets drinking rum and shouting at things.

[Oakvale]

My gut prediction for my own constituency, Dublin Central, before Jas gets to it -

2 Labour

Joe Costello will probably top the poll, and my instinct is that Aine Clancy will get in, too, just about.

1 Fine Gael

Paschal Donohoe will almost certainly win - he's ran a couple of times now, and did reasonably well in the by-election to replace Tony Gregory.

1 Independent *

It's hard to predict the final seat - there's no way of telling if Gregory's vote will hold up to re-elect O' Sullivan, for example. Normally you'd expect Sinn Féin to win this one, but Mary Lou McDonald isn't exactly a stellar candidate. If I had to pick I'd gamble on O' Sullivan keeping her seat and McDonald, rather than Clancy, losing out accordingly. You should probably bear in mind that I'm biased since I really, really can't stand Mary Lou McDonald.

Bertie's human surplus, Cyprian Brady (Fianna Fáil) is one of the deadest incumbents imaginable. His inter-party rival, Mary Fitzpatrick, hasn't got a chance either, although her prospects are better than Brady's.

The usual gaggle of independents are also running. Christy Burke, recently of Sinn Féin, will probably do respectably well.

* Orange is apparently the colour of independent candidates.

[Oakvale]

http://www.finegael2011.com/game/


Jesus Christ.

[Oakvale]

I've been playing that Super Enda game. It was going pretty well, but Joan Burton killed me after I'd collected a bunch of votes.

[Oakvale]

Ha, there's probably going to be some pretty sad people in Dublin once the Irish hero Gadaffi falls. If I lived in Massachusetts I'd love to observe the reaction in South Boston.

Has Sinn Fein issued any statements yet about how much of a glorious freedom fighter he is?

A representation of this post.

[Oakvale]

On the off chance anyone wants to take a look at tonight's final debate...

EDIT: To summarise -

Kenny being pretty average, but not making any major gaffes so he's doing just fine. Gilmore's best performance yet, but it's probably too late to matter.

Martin is being smarmy, cheap and unlikeable, but I've thought that about his performance in every debate so far and the public hasn't agreed with me, so....

[Oakvale]

Well, just back from voting. My local polling station was pretty packed, so that's probably a good sign.

[Oakvale]

Obviously past a certain point the preferences become more or less random and divided between fringe independents, so I'll leave them off.

[1] Joe Costello (Lab)
[2] Aíne Clancy (Lab)
[3] Paschal Donohoe (FG)
[4] Maureen O' Sullivan (Ind.)
[5] Phil Kearney (Green)
[6] Christy Burke (Ind.)
[7] Cieran Perry (Ind.)
[8] The incredible John "Pluto" Hyland (Ind.)

As you can imagine it got a bit silly after that.