Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[Kevinstat]

For a long time Fianna Fáil didn't form coalitions at all. Fine Gael, on the other hand, has always been the second-largest party in the Dáil, and as a result has always had to form coalitions to take power. Given that Labour has always been clearly the third-largest party in Ireland, they are Fine Gael's traditional coalition partners. Moreover, the Progressive Democrats were originally Fianna Fáil dissidents.

     Why did FF not form coalitions? For any sort of non-ideological, dare I say "American-esque", party, holding power by any means necessary would seem like a logical modus operandi. Lacking ideological convictions & being unwilling to cooperate with other parties seems like a recipe for irrelevancy.

Maybe they feared that forming a temporary coalition to stay in power would change the political dymamic in a way that would prevent them from ever governing on their own (as they had often been able to do, albiet sometimes with a minority of seats in the Dáil and relying on the support of Independents (I'm not sure if any of those were given government positions like now-Independent Mary Harney currently has) and even, at least once, a party outside of government (Fine Gael with its Tallaght Strategy from 1987 to... their entering government and John Bruton becoming Taoiseach in 1994?)).  The Labor Party in Norway long avoided coalitions iirc.  They're leading a coalition government now but I doubt they'll ever govern on their own again (apart from a period of time for no more than a year I'd say after other parties hypothetically leave a Labor-led governrment but for whatever reason there isn't majority support in the main legislative body for either another government (if that's even possible there without an election) or forcing a new election).

[Kevinstat]

A number of leftist groups are coming together for the upcoming election under the United Left Alliance banner.

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They comprise, primarily, the Socialist Party and the People Before Profit Alliance (PBP), along with some leftist independents with reasonable local bases of support (Seamus Healy in Tipperary South; Declan Bree in Sligo).

They should take a handful of seats - best prospects are likely Dublin W & Dublin N for the Socialists; Dún Laoighaire and Dublin SC for PBP; and, Seamus Healy in Tipperary S. After that, who knows...

Anything comperable going on in the right?  Not just Veritas and Cóir, but is there any "neo-PD" movement, fiscally conservative but anti-bailouts and anti-recent government action on the economy and thus at least somewhat anti-ex PD Mary Harney?  It seems like there could be a real opening for such a party or alliance, if only because Edna Kenney, who seems to take roughly that place on the spectrum, is so incompetant.

[Kevinstat]

It's interesting that most of the PD counsellors survived the 2009 locals running as independents - but there is no sign of any effort at revival. Noel Grealish will presumable run again, and has a not unreasonable chance of re-election but that's about it from the ex-PD perspective.

Is Mary Harney likely to run again?  If so, is she doomed to defeat, having all of the hardships of being in an unpopulat Government without the base of a major party like Fianna Fáil?  (In that respect, she's kind of like a Green Party TD.)

[Kevinstat]

What are the chances of Martin, Lenihan or Kelleher voting for Labour's motion of no confidence in the Government if Cowen wins the FF vote?  Negligible, I imagine, but you would know better than I.

[Kevinstat]

The Ministerial portfolios have been reassigned, but it's clear that the Greens have refused to allow the Taoiseach to appoint new people to the posts (presumably threatening otherwise to leave Government immediately).

What's the rationale for the Greens (or the public, which may be why they took that position) opposing new ministers being appointed who were only going to serve for a month or two?  Does it have to do with salaries, pensions or both?  Or (also) something else?  Like expense accounts.

Do ministers get paid (covering all forms of pay here, present and future) per profile, whichever individual profile's compensation is greatest (they may all be the same), or something in between (meaning you get more if you take on additional responsibilities but not as much more as what someone who hadn't held that level of position before, or may have before but otherwise wouldn't have that level of position now... not as much more as what that person would get in payment that he/she wouldn't otherwise get)?  The answer may be different for the different types of pay.  Some of these questions you probably won't be able to answer, but I'm sure you can tell me if my hunch of "What's the bid deal with a few TDs having a prestigeous-sounding gig for a month or two?" is correct.

[Kevinstat]

That's not a day too early.

It would be a shame though if we didn't get to see a PC 1993-style collapse of FF now.

Kim Campbell was supposed to be more popular than Brian Mulroney when she took over as PC leader and PM, and that was only 4 1/2 and 4 months, respectively, before the election.  She may have been clearly poised to lead the PCs into the next election for longer than that, however.

[Kevinstat]

Any chance that Labour will finish first?

Looks increasingly unlikely.

Either way, it'll be a FG-Lab grand coalition anyway, right?

I don't know.  While at first glance it might not seem that how other parties' support breaks down should greatly effect what percentage of the first preference vote a party (for argument's sake, let's say it's Fine Gael ) would need to win a majority of seats, or a large enough minority to form a non-coalition government with the support of Independents (of which there might be a larger number elected this year than in 2007), in reality a scattered non-Fine Gael vote between Labour, Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and several Independents (perhaps with two or more Independents who do well enough to keep their deposits in several constituencies) and the fact that Fine Gael should do well with most transfers other than Sinn Féin transfers, and not as bad as usual even there could all allow Fine Gael to earn a result that would allow them to govern without entering in a coalition with another party even with a first preference vote in the upper 30s.  That is higher than the 35% they got in the last RedC poll on 7 January, and much higher than the 30% they got in the MRBI poll on 16 December, but they seem to be on an upswing and some of the 12% for Independent/Other candidates in the RedC poll should probably be taken off both the numerator and (more relevantly here) the denominator if you're trying to forcast nationwide first-preference results from that poll.

While perhaps not likely, I don't think a Fine Gael majority government, let alone merely a Fine Gael minority government that has the potential to at least get off the ground is out of the question.  Any goverment that doesn't include Fine Gael would seem to be though, although I think some here were talking about the possitility of a Labour-? minority or coalition government without Fine Gael when they were polling in first place and gaining.

[Kevinstat]

So when is the snap election likely to be held?

An election has already been called. For March 11.

No it hasn't.  An election being definitively called (as opposed to it being stated by someone acting as having authority or speaking on behalf of those with authority when the election will be) in a constitutional monarchy or a parliamentary republic like Ireland is, at least in general I believe, synonymous with the disolution of the body for which the election is being called for.  As the Dáil has not been dissolved yet, and the election cannot be more than 30 days after the dissolution, there is still the opportunity, which the opposition parties (now including the Greens) seem likely to take advantage of, for the Dáil to be disolved before February 9 which would force the election to be held before March 11.

[Kevinstat]

Wouldn't it be fascinating if this happened?

So... Cowen would become leader again, by default?

One would assume so, yes.

Would Cowen have a chance in this case after the election to hold a leaderhip election of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party that (a) would be before the election of the Ceann Comhairle for the next (the 31st) Dáil and (b) that Seamus Kirk, as Ceann Comhairle, would be inelligable to vote in?  Also, could the existing Fianna Fáil Senators vote before the new Senators are elected.  Or are Senators not considered members of the "parliamentary party" in such elections?  (i.e. can they not vote for party leader?)

Also, would the new Dáil be able to elect a new Ceann Comhairle even if Kirk wants to remain in that position?  Is the "standing down" that Rory O'Hanlon did in 2007 automatic, just that a Ceann Comhairle can be "reelected" to that position right after standing down?  I believe the answer to both those questions is "yes."  I also assume, though, that Cowen, as 1/2 the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party if Senators are not included (or their aren't any Fianna Fáil Senators by that point), would be able to block any challenge to his leadership for the run of the 31st Dáil, if he was able to unanimously elect himself in a brief interval before that.

[Kevinstat]

Is any incumbent (or resigned since 2007) TD running in a different constituency from that which he or she served from in the 30th (2007-2011) Dáil, counting all constituencies with the same name pre- and post-2007 review the same and counting Kerry North Limerick West, Limerick and Limerick City as the same (for the purpose of this question) as Kerry North, Limerick West and Limerick East, respectively?  Looking at the list of candidates at ElectionsIreland.org, the only "°" indicators for candidates who currently represent a different constituency seem to be for incumbent TDs standing for reelection in the three renamed constituencies, all of whom represented the "main predecessor district" (I can tell from looking at the numbers here and doing the math in my head that every post- and pre-2007 review constituency has the majority of its population coming from or going to a unique pre- or post-2007 review constituency, with the biggest minority portion probably being the Limerick East portion of Limerick) in the 30th Dáil.  I thought I had seen another "°" indicator in the Fianna Fáil column sometime in the last week, but I don't see any outside those three constituencies (all TDs from the main predecessor constituency) anymore.  Had someone been planning on jumping contituencies but changed their mind?  (If it was a Fianna Fáil TD, he or she probably figured it was pointless to try to get elected in a new constituency.)

[Kevinstat]

Also, is Fine Gael really running four candidates (none of them incumbent TDs, in spite of Joe O'Reilly being in boldface) in Cavan-Monaghan and Galway West?  They might well win four in Mayo and I guess a "sweeper" in Galway East makes sense (four in Laoighis Offaly is pushing it, as their percentage there in 2007 was less than in Cavan-Monaghan, but with Fianna Fáil being the only other game in town there it may not be crazy), but with a viable opponent "3rd party" in Cavan-Monaghan (SF) and Galway West (Labour), and a viable incumbent independent TD (Noel Grealish) in the latter, why would they run four candidates when winning three seats will be tall order?

[Kevinstat]

Oh wow, I hadn't noticed that Galway East was only a 4-seater.  FG ran 4 candidates last time though and it didn't hurt them (both they and FF won two seats, with FF narrowly outpolling them on first preference votes).  FF ran three candidates in that election, while this year they are running two, one of them an incumbent while their other incumbent is retiring.

[Kevinstat]

What would be a standard anglicized spelling of Ó Caoláin? I understand that, spelling aside, he shares a first name with kevinstat.

Caoimhghín (Ó Caoláin's first name) is pronounced "Kevin"?  I thought Kevin was an Irish name.

[Kevinstat]

Which I think should give an overall prediction *get your buckets of salt ready* of something like:
73 Fine Gael
38 Labour
26 Fianna Fáil
16 Sinn Féin
  6 United Left Alliance
  7 Independents
  0 Greens

which looks instinctively wrong. Anyway, I guess we'll how wrong soon enough.

How many seats would SF probably need to win to have 20 seats in the Oireachtas (Dáil Éireann + Seanad Éireann) once the Seanad elections have taken place?  I asssume none will be Taoiseach's nominees.  20 members of the Oireachtas are enough to nominate a candidate for President, and the next Irish presidential election will be held in October assuming Mary McAleese serves out her term.  Could Gerry Adams vote to nominate himself or would SF need to win 20 seats besides his to get him on the ballot without relying on support outside SF?