Irish general election: 25 February 2011

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Cowen's left it far too long - a change of leader at this date might bring a few people back, but it may drive others away as such a late change looks like panic (which it almost certainly is).
If Cowen wanted to save his party he should have quit six months ago at least, and preferably a year. A new leader now might give them a bit of a poll bounce, but it won't last long enough (or be substantial enough) to benefit them come polling day.
There was a mention of Brian Mulroney's late departure in 1993 (and Pierre Trudeau's retirement in 1984 also bears similarities) - both parties had been polling abysmally for years (largely because the PM was unpopular) before the leader retired with just a few months to go. The new leaders got a temporary bounce in the polls, but those always wear off pretty fast and there was no time for them to build up any real, solid support. Both parties got their biggest beatings in their history as a consequence, but if the old leaders had quit a year earlier they could have been avoided. It's the same thing in Ireland now - the crash has probably made Fianna Fail's reelection impossible, but their long slide beforehand was mainly due to Brian Cowen's unpopularity. His last-minute departure is not going to help at all. They won't place second, but hopefully they will place ahead of Sinn Fein.

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Seeing that exit (and I suppose as well the first count when it comes) reminds me of when the BBC figures in Britain came out in 1997. This wasn't just another opinion poll, and it really brought home the fact that the great dominant party of government was about to be well and truly screwed, perhaps for good. The Tories have recovered somewhat - I doubt if Fianna Fail will.

Fine Gael gets a lower share here than most polls had forecast, but then RTE's exit last time underestimated it a bit so maybe it's the case here too. I suspect it is.