Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Put it like this... at the last election, Fianna Fail polled 41.6% of the vote. The most recent opinion poll shows them on 17%. Since 1932 the lowest they have ever polled in a general election was 39.1% in 1992; and Ireland has had a remarkably stable party system (and has kept the same basic electoral system) meaning that such comparisons have more value than most places.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bah. Still, even 25% would be more than double the last election and significantly higher than even 1992. In theory, anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour’s recent decline apparently continues. Their worst result since last March (17%). Not sure what this can be attributed to.

Gravity.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are constituency boundaries the same as last time?

Both parts of Ireland having their elections within a couple of months of each other is slightly fun.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, but Labour's organisational weakness in certain parts of the country could easily mean that...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well not many of the incumbent TDs are running for reelection.

Is the gobsh!te?

No: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-12329727

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another poll: FG 35, Labour 22, FF 17, SF 13, Greenies 2%, I/O 11%

Red C/Sunday Business Post

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Or perhaps I´m saying this because I still can´t comprehend the notion of Enda Kenny being taoiseach.

Which would be entirely understandable as it's not a nice thought.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Remember, Labour only polled 10% back in 2007.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The trouble with STV is that it's a good electoral system for electing witless morons who parade around (often less than honestly) as 'local champions' and get rewarded for it. Of course that happens under fptp as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The trouble with STV is that it's a good electoral system for electing witless morons who parade around (often less than honestly) as 'local champions' and get rewarded for it. Of course that happens under fptp as well.

Not always. In Scotland with the move away from FPTP council elections towards larger STV wards many of the 'witless morons' found that their base had been consumed within a much bigger area, they commanded less support and promptly got booted out.

This just means you get witless morons with slightly broader appeal.

Though I suppose there was a decent clearance of witless morons in the Highlands.

Wait.

Is that an appropriate use of figurative language?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quite a few three seaters now, aren't there...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Right has held the Presidency in France since 1995, of course.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well Bremen has been under SPD rule since 1945, Baden Württemberg under CDU rule since 1951 and Bavaria under CSU rule since 1957...

If we're counting provincial/state level a few Swedish provinces has had Social Democrats in power since 1921

If we're counting local government () then the old Durham County Council was Labour from the early 1920s until it was abolished in 1974 and its main successor authorities (the new Durham County Council (now a unitary authority) and large parts (but in no case the largest town) of Sunderland, Gateshead and South Tyneside metropolitan boroughs) have always been run by Labour. I think Buckinghamshire County Council (boundaries a bit more stable) has been Tory ever since it was created at the end of the 19th century, but I'm not entirely sure.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh, what have I done? While German states are a few dozen levels above the units now being discussed in terms of power and constitutional standing, they didn't really belong here and I knew it.

Each post is a few steps down or so. I think the next step is for someone to point out that the X party has had a majority on some town council somewhere since 1868 or whenever.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Please go on, Jas; these are excellent.

^^^

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've always loved the fact that he actually said 'frightfully'.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...and unlock.

Of course we now know most of the results. So don't post anything directly to do with those here.

So why unlock this thread?

For post-election speculation, of course.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So long as Labour defend the interests of well, labour with a small l, within a new government things might not go so badly for them. They are used to working with Fine Gael in government after all.
Of course disaster would loom if they cock it up. So hopefully they don't.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's a major party in the context of Ireland in the year of our Lord 2011? Besides, Fianna Fail is utterly discredited, at least for the time being.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is to be a Fine Gael-Labour coalition, again. Official.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour are used to being in coalition governments with Fine Gael though; which is a big difference. The key thing for them to do if they want to avoid slipping back to their traditional level of support is to protect the interests of labour (with a small 'l') as much as possible and to maintain a profile of their own. As the latter shouldn't be a problem it's the former that matters.