Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[patrick1]

Slan abhaile, BIFFO.

[patrick1]

Labour appear to have at least arrested their decline, while SF may have peaked. (Gerry Adams has already been, and will continue to be, questioned in an almost mocking fashion about economic questions in the Republic. Quite a few journalists have caught him out already.)

Don't you think this strategy could backfire though? A lot of working class people don't have the greatest respect for economic experts these days.

[patrick1]

Labour appear to have at least arrested their decline, while SF may have peaked. (Gerry Adams has already been, and will continue to be, questioned in an almost mocking fashion about economic questions in the Republic. Quite a few journalists have caught him out already.)

Don't you think this strategy could backfire though? A lot of working class people don't have the greatest respect for economic experts these days.

True. But it's not that Adams's ideology is viewed as bananas that's the issue, it's that he clearly doesn't seem to actually understand the economic situation as is, and doesn't actually understand some of the simpler matters either (child benefit, VAT, etc.).

The media narrative has taken hold, and I don't see it shifting - every journalist Adams deals with between now and election day will try to further expose his weakness in this area - and more than a few will succeed. He can't be looking forward to debates either - the biggest story to emerge from the debates in 2007 was Adams's economic ignorance and how the others made fun of him.

That said, you're quite right in that I'm not sure how much many people care for this sort of thing - but I do think it will inhibit the potential reach of the Sinn Féin campaign and that Adams may come to be viewed as more of an electoral liability than an asset even if, as it seems, they're on course for their best result in modern times.

Thanks for the reply. While I think a hostile media and opposing parties have successfully been able to paint/prove Adams as economically weak, I just don't think it has much effect beyond making like minded people smirk. I don't think people getting their benefits cut appreciate people like Leo Varadkar  scoffing at someone's economic heft.  And FF is really in a weak position to argue about their economic expertise.

I do agree that that the current leadership does inhibit the parties' growth potential and for some time I would have liked to see leadership changes. SF finally has a chance to make itself a serious all Ireland party again and I don't think the Troubles leadership can make this happen.

[patrick1]

What is the deal with FF's proposals on minister's role in the Dail? It just strikes me as anti Parliamentary and heading toward almost a separate American-like executive branch. Is it really so taxing to be a constituency rep and manage your portfolio at the same time?

[patrick1]

Also, is Fine Gael really running four candidates (none of them incumbent TDs, in spite of Joe O'Reilly being in boldface) in Cavan-Monaghan and Galway West?  They might well win four in Mayo and I guess a "sweeper" in Galway East makes sense (four in Laoighis Offaly is pushing it, as their percentage there in 2007 was less than in Cavan-Monaghan, but with Fianna Fáil being the only other game in town there it may not be crazy), but with a viable opponent "3rd party" in Cavan-Monaghan (SF) and Galway West (Labour), and a viable incumbent independent TD (Noel Grealish) in the latter, why would they run four candidates when winning three seats will be tall order?

Running 4 in C-M is because they are chasing 3 seats (a quite realistic aim), but felt they had to run 2 from each county (same reasoning in Laois-Offaly). Humphreys and O'Reilly are to be favoured, I presume. I'd suggest Conlon will be closer than McVittie - Margaret Conlon's transfers (for surely she shall falter, rather than Smith) will likely stay in Monaghan thus preferring Humphreys and Conlon.

While quite a few tout C-M as an opportunity for a second SF seat, I don't see it happening. It looks like Ó Caoláin only allowed a weak second candidate. I can't see there being sufficient Cavan SF votes to get her really into contention - but I guess SF votes will transfer between the counties better than most other parties will manage, so who knows.

Paddypower and some commentators are calling for another SF pickup with Kathryn Reilly.
 I presume this would make her the baby of the dail.  Funny contrast seeing a cute, mousey 22 year old share the podium with the ex-provos.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0204/1224288986692.html
http://www.newstalk.ie/2011/news/review-of-cavan-monaghan-constituency-by-adrian-kavanagh/

[patrick1]

When you call a female politician "cute", Patrick, it is customary to include a picture.



What would be a standard anglicized spelling of Ó Caoláin? I understand that, spelling aside, he shares a first name with kevinstat.

Haha. Well I will give you video. Skip to :30 mark if you dont like the propaganda.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vkGpka_6FlA

Regarding your second question I am not sure. The anglicization always throws me for a loop- my own Irish language surname is rendered numerous ways into English. The spelling in County Cork bears very little resemblance to my own.

[patrick1]

The SF bump seems to be over?

Possibly. Possibly not.
More data required before calling that I think.

Yeah, things seem a little muddy and I'm not well versed  in Irish polling to recognize a trend or simple MoE blips. The Cork North Central poll had SF doing well though and FF getting lambasted.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0214/breaking4.html

[patrick1]

So Fine Gael is leading the polls and Epic Fail could remain the second party ? Ireland really depresses me...

I wouldn't presume that yet. FF just polled 10% Dublin wide Evening Herald poll.  I think the # of FF seats will ultimately depend on how well local candidates can separate themselves from the national party. FG will win though- I think it is just a matter of if they can reach single party majority- I don't see that happening.

Herald polled 1000 Dublin wide.
LAB 31, FG 29, IND 16, SF 11, FF 10, GRN 3

ULA and SF strength probably a bit understated since they are not running in all constituencies.  

[patrick1]

Thanks for the analysis, fellas. I disagree with Oakvale and think Mary Lou will pull it out. I was thinking about doing my predictions but don't want to embarrass myself.  Really have no clue how independents will swing individual races or how transfers are going to break.

[patrick1]

Ha, there's probably going to be some pretty sad people in Dublin once the Irish hero Gadaffi falls. If I lived in Massachusetts I'd love to observe the reaction in South Boston.

Has Sinn Fein issued any statements yet about how much of a glorious freedom fighter he is?

A representation of this post.

When it comes to these matters BRTD is either dumb, a troll or a dumb troll. Not sure what South Boston has to do with anything,  by product of too many movies I presume.

LOL@Healy- Rae.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPISMWa0SMU

[patrick1]

A poll from Cavan-Monaghan, FWIW, in today's Anglo-Celt (local newspaper in Cavan, carried out last Friday by Cavan Institute students, sample 525, weightings applied for electoral area, social background, gender and age grouping):

Ó Caoláin (SF) 17.6%
O'Reilly (FG) 13.8%
Reilly (SF) 11.4%
Conlon (FG) 11.2%
Smith (FF) 10.9%
Humphreys (FG) 8.9%
Conlon (FF) 5.3%
Forde (Ind) 5.1%
Hogan (Lab) 4.2%
McVitty (FG) 4.2%
Treanor (Ind) 2.7%
Lonergan (GP) 2.3%
McGuirk (Ind) 1.4%
Duffy (Ind) 1.0%

Thanks for posting, Observer. Do you post on politics.ie as well? Welcome to the forum. 
That spread would suggest some good vote management for SF, no? I wonder how toxic FF will be with transfers. Could see 3 FG and 2 SF.

[patrick1]

Which I think should give an overall prediction *get your buckets of salt ready* of something like:
73 Fine Gael
38 Labour
26 Fianna Fáil
16 Sinn Féin
  6 United Left Alliance
  7 Independents
  0 Greens

which looks instinctively wrong. Anyway, I guess we'll how wrong soon enough.

Thanks for the posts, Jas.

A lot of people seem to be calling for slightly more FG and Ind seats than that- which would give them a lot easier chance to govern without Labour.  It should be interesting.

[patrick1]

Which I think should give an overall prediction *get your buckets of salt ready* of something like:
73 Fine Gael
38 Labour
26 Fianna Fáil
16 Sinn Féin
  6 United Left Alliance
  7 Independents
  0 Greens

which looks instinctively wrong. Anyway, I guess we'll how wrong soon enough.

Thanks for the posts, Jas.

A lot of people seem to be calling for slightly more FG and Ind seats than that- which would give them a lot easier chance to govern without Labour.  It should be interesting.

Yeah, I also seem to be more favourable to SF than most.
I rushed through Dublin a bit - might review things.

Yeah, I think SF would be delighted with 16. As long as they get over 7 and speaking rights is the minimum goal, but in this political climate I think it would be a failure if they dont get to at least 12 or 13.

Lewis, regarding your quote. He is a FF voter still- you have to expect  a certain amount of built in delusional thought.

[patrick1]

Which I think should give an overall prediction *get your buckets of salt ready* of something like:
73 Fine Gael
38 Labour
26 Fianna Fáil
16 Sinn Féin
  6 United Left Alliance
  7 Independents
  0 Greens

which looks instinctively wrong. Anyway, I guess we'll how wrong soon enough.

How many seats would SF probably need to win to have 20 seats in the Oireachtas (Dáil Éireann + Seanad Éireann) once the Seanad elections have taken place?  I asssume none will be Taoiseach's nominees.  20 members of the Oireachtas are enough to nominate a candidate for President, and the next Irish presidential election will be held in October assuming Mary McAleese serves out her term.  Could Gerry Adams vote to nominate himself or would SF need to win 20 seats besides his to get him on the ballot without relying on support outside SF?

I am pretty sure you just need 20 members- so I "think" some other member of SF would nominate and then they would just vote for themselves.  It would be a ridiculous move even if they had the #'s.  Personally, I think they should get rid of the Seanad altogether- maybe look at getting rid of the President too. Overall Ireland just seems way over-governed and it perpetuates a lot of the local hero nonsense candidates.

[patrick1]

Hey guys, How is emigrant or absentee voting handled? I can't find much information on it- are you allowed to vote at embassies etc.?

[patrick1]

He's right, of course, but I wonder what he meant by "making sure to shower".

Yeah, surely you usually need the shower on exiting most legislative bodies.