Pennsylvania 2012: Casey's Challenge

[redcommander]

Smith: "...Specter ran in 2010?"

Wow. Rohrer didn't have the biggest gaffe tonight. This is horrible. He doesn't remember candidates he voted for and then asked what Welch had for breakfast three weeks ago. Terrible attempt at a save. Your votes are a little more important, Tom.

I don't trust Welch or his reasons for changing his voter registration. And Rohrer seems to much in the mold of the Buck and Angle, and we all know how their races went. Is there anyone remotely electable even running? What about that former Santorum aide?

Rohrer is a very intelligent and articulate man. That said, I fear a very easy Casey win if he was the nominee. Scaringi - the former Santorum aide - isn't going to come close to winning the primary.

What makes him unelectable?

Scaringi? Doesn't have the funding, big resume or big backers, quite frankly.

I mean Rohrer.

[Keystone Phil]

Smith: "...Specter ran in 2010?"

Wow. Rohrer didn't have the biggest gaffe tonight. This is horrible. He doesn't remember candidates he voted for and then asked what Welch had for breakfast three weeks ago. Terrible attempt at a save. Your votes are a little more important, Tom.

I don't trust Welch or his reasons for changing his voter registration. And Rohrer seems to much in the mold of the Buck and Angle, and we all know how their races went. Is there anyone remotely electable even running? What about that former Santorum aide?

Rohrer is a very intelligent and articulate man. That said, I fear a very easy Casey win if he was the nominee. Scaringi - the former Santorum aide - isn't going to come close to winning the primary.

What makes him unelectable?

Scaringi? Doesn't have the funding, big resume or big backers, quite frankly.

I mean Rohrer.

Comes across as too stiff and far right. His style would kill him in the suburbs. As for his electability in the primary, he has a chance because he probably has the most motivated group of supporters, is more known and is closer to the base but he and Smith are taking from the same group.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Between Rohrer, Smith, and Welch, who do you like the most, Phil?

[Keystone Phil]

Between Rohrer, Smith, and Welch, who do you like the most, Phil?

Well, I've said for months that I'm undecided between Welch and Smith...

Rohrer is a very nice and sincere guy. I like him for other reasons, too, but I fear that he isn't electable. As for Smith and Welch, I think the debate the other night allowed me to finally make up my mind on this one. Barring a major screw up, I'm going with Welch. I have concerns with all of them but I think Welch is extremely intelligent, acceptable ideologically and stands the best chance at giving Casey a real challenge. His aggressiveness against Smith the other night proves to me that he's ready for primetime.

[Keystone Phil]

Keep in mind that it's an internal - http://www.politicspa.com/smith-poll-smith-leads-senate-race/33955/

Smith - 29%
Rohrer - 14%
Welch - 9%
Christian - 7%
Scaringi - 2%
Undecided - 39%

Not surprised at all at the undecided number even though we are just twelve days away from the Primary. I believe Smith is ahead because of his ads and mail (he is the only Senate candidate I've gotten mail from so far) but I imagine Welch is doing better than 9%.

[redcommander]

Keep in mind that it's an internal - http://www.politicspa.com/smith-poll-smith-leads-senate-race/33955/

Smith - 29%
Rohrer - 14%
Welch - 9%
Christian - 7%
Scaringi - 2%
Undecided - 39%

Not surprised at all at the undecided number even though we are just twelve days away from the Primary. I believe Smith is ahead because of his ads and mail (he is the only Senate candidate I've gotten mail from so far) but I imagine Welch is doing better than 9%.

Hopefully Welch wins this. Despite my past reservations about him, he seems like the most electable against Casey.

[smoltchanov]

Hopefully Welch wins this. Despite my past reservations about him, he seems like the most electable against Casey.

Well, i don't know.. I don't like flip-flopping on issues. Welch was pro-choice until relatively recent times, now he is pro-life (i know that Casey - too). Not a good behavoir, IMHO

[redcommander]

Hopefully Welch wins this. Despite my past reservations about him, he seems like the most electable against Casey.

Well, i don't know.. I don't like flip-flopping on issues. Welch was pro-choice until relatively recent times, now he is pro-life (i know that Casey - too). Not a good behavoir, IMHO

He can't really be labeled as a right wing extremist though, and seems quite disciplined as a candidate. You can't necessarily say the same about Smith and Rohrer.

[smoltchanov]

He can't really be labeled as a right wing extremist though, and seems quite disciplined as a candidate. You can't necessarily say the same about Smith and Rohrer.

Here i fully agree. They are substantially more right wing..

[Keystone Phil]

I've heard many things about Welch. I've never heard that he was Pro Choice. Are you sure you aren't just saying that because he seems to fit the bill (SE PA Republican supported by the establishment, not the most conservative candidate in the race, left the party at one point, etc.).

[smoltchanov]

I've heard many things about Welch. I've never heard that he was Pro Choice. Are you sure you aren't just saying that because he seems to fit the bill (SE PA Republican supported by the establishment, not the most conservative candidate in the race, left the party at one point, etc.).

Yes, i am sure. Not ready to present a link right now, but sure that i read it (being located in Moscow i am, naturally, "Internet-based"). Most likely - on SSP when he (Welch) intended to run for Gerlach seat, when Gerlach himself intended to run for governor

P.S. One off-topic question to you as an expert on Pennsylvania politics. With my strong love for "mavericks" and "really big tent" - most interesting politicians for me in Republican party tend to be as moderate (or even, gosh, a liberal) as possible. In Democratic - vice versa. Can you "recommend" somebody from Pennsylvania for me to follow their career?))))). I don't expect anyone like Jacob Javits or Larry McDonald, but still - ....

[Keystone Phil]

Well, it might not have been from a reputable source because he has yet to be hit on his views on abortion and, believe me, they aren't holding back their attacks on Welch.

As for a maverick from PA, I'm sure Specter or Casey, Sr. are the most interesting. Or are you looking for someone currently in office?

[smoltchanov]

Well, it might not have been from a reputable source because he has yet to be hit on his views on abortion and, believe me, they aren't holding back their attacks on Welch.

As for a maverick from PA, I'm sure Specter or Casey, Sr. are the most interesting. Or are you looking for someone currently in office?

May be. But he doesn't seems too stringently pro-life either..

Well i know Specter's career since his days as DA in Philadelphia. And i remember Casey Sr. since his governor days. Somebody from, say, state Legislature, would suffice me))). But - as maverick (liberal for Republican, conservative for Democrat) as possible please))

[Keystone Phil]

Richard Schweiker was a moderate to liberal Republican U.S. Senator during the 1970s. You may recognize the name because Reagan tapped him as his running mate ahead of the 1976 convention for ideological and geographical balance and as an attempt to win over PA's delegates.

If you want someone from the state legislature, look into former State Representative John Lawless from Montgomery county. He switched his party several times and ran for Lt. Governor as a Dem in 2002. Also, former Auditor General and State Treasurer Barbara Hafer would be up your alley. She was a Dem then became a Republican elected official (but was always more moderate to liberal) then switched back to the Dems in 2003. She was the frontrunner to take on Santorum in 2006 before Casey was recruited. She was the GOP nominee for Governor against Casey, Sr. in 1990 and lost in one of the biggest landslides in PA history (she only won Montgomery county and her margin of victory was miniscule. This was at the time when the Montco GOP won everything. Reagan refered to it as the best county GOP organization in the country). That was a great race because you had two individuals that didn't fit their respective parties that well. Hafer wanted to run for Governor again in 2002 but claims she was forced out by party leaders for then Attorney General (and now federal judge) Mike Fisher. That helped push her out of the party.

[smoltchanov]

Richard Schweiker was a moderate to liberal Republican U.S. Senator during the 1970s. You may recognize the name because Reagan tapped him as his running mate ahead of the 1976 convention for ideological and geographical balance and as an attempt to win over PA's delegates.

If you want someone from the state legislature, look into former State Representative John Lawless from Montgomery county. He switched his party several times and ran for Lt. Governor as a Dem in 2002. Also, former Auditor General and State Treasurer Barbara Hafer would be up your alley. She was a Dem then became a Republican elected official (but was always more moderate to liberal) then switched back to the Dems in 2003. She was the frontrunner to take on Santorum in 2006 before Casey was recruited. She was the GOP nominee for Governor against Casey, Sr. in 1990 and lost in one of the biggest landslides in PA history (she only won Montgomery county and her margin of victory was miniscule. This was at the time when the Montco GOP won everything. Reagan refered to it as the best county GOP organization in the country). That was a great race because you had two individuals that didn't fit their respective parties that well. Hafer wanted to run for Governor again in 2002 but claims she was forced out by party leaders for then Attorney General (and now federal judge) Mike Fisher. That helped push her out of the party.

Thanks. Of course - i remember Schweiker. He, BTW, became more conservative after being selected for VP by Reagan...

Thanks for your suggestions. And from present-day Legislature? Milne? McIlhinney? Conklin? Greenleaf? Somebody else?

[Keystone Phil]

Wow. You seem to know a decent amount already if you can spout their names like that. I don't think Milne is liberal (though I read yesterday about his connections to the teachers union) but McIlhinney and Greenleaf (who actually ran for President this year in New Hampshire to "prove a point" but had many of his fans scratching their heads) are worth a look.

[All Along The Watchtower]

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more: http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2012/04/13/analysis-with-santorum-out-corbetts-credibility-on-the-line-in-pa-senate-election/

Phil, your thoughts on this?

[Keystone Phil]

I'm involved in one race in particular (not the Senate race) and have said from day one that Santorum's candidacy was a big help to us for turnout. That big advantage isn't there anymore. I don't think it's that horrible because Republicans still have more reason to turn out than Dems (they only have a sort of competitive AG primary) but we obviously won't see the numbers we would have seen if the Presidential primary carried on.

The specific effect it has on the Senate primary is a little complex. PoliticsPA did a "Winners and Losers of Santorum's Withdraw" and listed Smith and Welch as winners while Rohrer was a loser. I mostly agree. The lower turnout typically favors the establishment pick (Welch) while Rohrer and his side clearly had ties to Santorum. With fewer Santorum fans turning out, it could be fatal for Rohrer. However, Welch's supporters are more likely to be Romney supporters and with Mitt not having to compete here/taking a much needed break, turn out among Welch sympathizes could be down, too.

Smith could be the big winner with this because, as PoliticsPA points out, he gets to continue dominate the air with his ads. Smith could really capitalize on Rohrer-Santorum voters not being as motivated in the T. He may also benefit from his hard hitting ads against Rohrer but he has a target on his back, too: Welch and Rohrer are really stepping up the attacks on Smith's history as a Democrat.

[Keystone Phil]

Smith sent out a misleading mailer, saying "liberal" Steve Welch voted for Obama "even after Obama said we cling to our guns and religion and even after government took over healthcare." It has a black and white photo of Welch and Obama above the giant caption "It's true."

Welch didn't vote for Obama in the General and to say he voted for him even after the government took over healthcare is even more of a blatant lie. Disgusting.

[J. J.]

What is the difference between Rohrer and Smith?

[Keystone Phil]

What is the difference between Rohrer and Smith?

Rohrer at least has a record of being conservative and I think he's far more articulate. A lot of questions remain about Smith.

[Keystone Phil]

And Smith was the only candidate to skip today's Inside Story (a Sunday round table debate program on Philly's ABC affiliate for those that aren't familiar) debate.

[smoltchanov]

Wow. You seem to know a decent amount already if you can spout their names like that. I don't think Milne is liberal (though I read yesterday about his connections to the teachers union) but McIlhinney and Greenleaf (who actually ran for President this year in New Hampshire to "prove a point" but had many of his fans scratching their heads) are worth a look.

Thanks, Phil!

[Keystone Phil]

Smith's latest internal: Smith 35%  Rohrer 16%  Welch 10%

31% of likely voters are undecided.

[redcommander]

Smith's latest internal: Smith 35%  Rohrer 16%  Welch 10%

31% of likely voters are undecided.