Pennsylvania 2012: Casey's Challenge

[J. J.]

Too early? Never! We had the first challenger announce today and you guys will love his background (he used to be a Santorum staffer) - http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2010/11/former-santorum-aide-to-challenge-casey-in-2012.html


Declared candidates:

Attorney and former Santorum staffer Marc Scaringi

Unless he's appointed interim AG, I'd doubt it.

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Both Corman and Gerlach would be excellent.  The Cormans are a dynasty in Central PA.

[J. J.]

Casey wins easily.

Next.

Maybe not.  He hasn't exactly set the house of fire in the Senate and could be seen as part of the Ancien Régime in 2012.

[J. J.]

The Year of the Pennsylvania Republican could be 2012.

[J. J.]

The Year of the Pennsylvania Republican could be 2012.

That year was 2010.  Obama would have to lose Pennsylvania for Casey to come anywhere close to losing and that just isnt possible in a Presidential year with the Philly Dem machine turning out 600,000 votes for Democrats.  

I'd say right now, there is a 50% chance for 2012 to be a worse year for the democrats than 2010 was.

[J. J.]

The Year of the Pennsylvania Republican could be 2012.

That year was 2010.  Obama would have to lose Pennsylvania for Casey to come anywhere close to losing and that just isnt possible in a Presidential year with the Philly Dem machine turning out 600,000 votes for Democrats.  

Yeah, Obama couldn't possibly get more unpopular to offset Democratic turnout and the Dems will always have insane turnout. 

Obama wont get unpopular enough to lose Pennsylvania.  Not happening. 

He's sitting at a 40% approval rating in Pennsylvania and you really want to be cocky about this? I remember some other cocky, Dem favored predictions from you about two years ago, too...

I made had no illusions about how bad this year would be for Democrats after Obama won. 

And I recall saying to whomever won, "After you, the deluge."

[J. J.]

Dent won't rule out a run against Casey - http://www.mcall.com/news/local/mc-dent-casey-121010,0,3717021.story

I was at the weekend long event - Pennsylvania Society - mentioned in the article. It's our annual Pennsylvania political tradition...in New York City. We consider it sort of a retreat. Anyway, I saw Dent and another possible challenger - State Senator Jake Corman. I didn't see Gerlach or Ward there but I have no doubt that they were in attendance. I didn't see Casey either but I did see his predecessor working the individual events. I hear he has his eyes on something a little bigger than this instead of looking for a rematch. The weird thing is that I didn't hear any talk about this race; all I saw were two people wearing "Casey for Senate" lapel pins. Pennsylvania Society is usually buzzing with rumors.

Aside from the obvious problem for Dent (which I've noted), here's another thing standing in the way of a Senate run: he has been given a spot on the Appropriations committee. Probably not as big of a deal with the earmark ban but it's still obviously prestigious.

Gerlach got a spot on Ways and Means so that throws a wrench into things, too.

Corman might be a good choice.  He is fairly well known in the T.  Ward is in Westmoreland, which helps a great deal as well.  I think either could take down Casey.

I hope you enjoyed the Pennsylvania Society dinner (and yes, it is a bit upper class).

[J. J.]

Former Governor Schweiker to be "drafted" to run against Casey? - http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/harrisburg_politics/PA_Society_De-Briefing.html


He might be our best candidate. 

I don't think any politician left office with more goodwill toward him/her than Schweiker.  In my view he'd crush Casey.......he's well liked by both sides of the aisle.

Run Mark, Run!!!

Consider the circumstances though. He was very popular and very well liked but he had several unique incidents to explain that.

He wouldn't crush Casey. Unfortunately, no one will unless it's a total disaster of a year for the Dems/Obama. Plus, Schweiker hasn't had to run for office in his own right for a long time and has been out of the spotlight for awhile. He won't be nearly as popular as he was in 2002. If he went back on his word and ran for a full term as Governor, he would have crushed Rendell. No doubt about it. But that won't be the case against Bobby especially in a Presidential election year and after being away for so long.

I'd make the sames points as Phil.  He had a lot good will 8 years ago, but it will be 10 years prior to the 2012 election.  His tenure was brief.

That said, Casey is much weaker than he was 4 years ago.

[J. J.]

So, anyone want to lay odds on whether this thread will be bigger than PA-13 by election day?

Exactly what I was thinking.

[J. J.]

It is probably the least likely of the competitive races.  Casey is one of those races where, it there is a widespread collapse in the Democrats, it becomes competitive.  2010 was not strong enough.

[J. J.]

I basically list Casey as the 14th seat.  There would be about 13 others to go before he loses.

[J. J.]

What is the difference between Rohrer and Smith?