Official US 2010 Census Results

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

At round about what pop. figure would RI lose/MT regain its second seat?

assuming 309 mil. total population of 50 states, divided by 435 seats would mean 1 seat per approx. 760 K, so I would guess 1.04 mil would be the threshold for rounding up or down.

For 309M an average seat is 710K, not 760K.  Cutoff line between 1 and 2 seats using the current method is approximately √2 of a seat or 1004K.  However, because people living in the territories and DC, as well as some people overseas don't count in the apportionment population, the apportionment population will be less than the overall population by several millions, so the cutoff will be around 990K instead.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Delaware and (more interestingly) North Carolina shipped today.

So Kansas and Wyoming tomorrow or just sometime this week?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why are they taking so effing long to ship South Carolina?  I can understand why they didn't give us the earliest priority, but I would have thought that they would have wanted to give a leg up to the States that have a change in the number of U.S. Representatives.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why are they taking so effing long to ship South Carolina?  I can understand why they didn't give us the earliest priority, but I would have thought that they would have wanted to give a leg up to the States that have a change in the number of U.S. Representatives.

It doesn't matter if you change the number of representatives because all the states have to change the boundaries anyway (even single district states have local elections).

Yes and no.  If you lose one or more seats, you have to decide which incumbents you want force together or encourage to retire.  If you gain one or more seats, you have to decide which districts you want to take the brunt of the dislocations,creating a new seat causes.  Those things take more time than simply shifting district boundaries around.

Not only that South Carolina is likely to have to worry about whether they will need to create one or two minority-majority districts.  The GOP will want only one, but there will inevitably be a lawsuit when it passes such a plan.  Ideally, to have time to deal with the repercussions of any lawsuits, they'd get the data in time to pass a plan this session (which ends at the beginning of June), instead of having to wait until next January.  In order for there to be no delays in South Carolina, everything need to be in place no later than March 2, 2012 (one year from today as a matter of fact).  That the first deadline on our political calendar, as the party county chairmen have to place advertisements detailing where party candidates for offices in that county may file, and which offices they may file for.  The clock is ticking here and we have just one year.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why are they taking so effing long to ship South Carolina?  I can understand why they didn't give us the earliest priority, but I would have thought that they would have wanted to give a leg up to the States that have a change in the number of U.S. Representatives.

Does South Carolina have ANY regularly scheduled elections in 2011 - major county, local or whatever?  If not, Census should wait to release it last behind states who have at least some elections this year, but before those who do not require DOJ preclearance.

Depends on what you mean by "regular".  Elections for county and state offices are all held on the usual biennial dates, but municipalities and school boards get to pick their own election dates, which may or may not be the Tuesday after the first Monday of November.  Slightly under half will use the traditional election day, but there are regularly scheduled local elections every month except January and August someplace in South Carolina this year.  At least they are largely non-partisan.

For example, most of the smaller municipalities in Charleston county will hold elections on the regular election day of November 8 this year, but Charleston itself will hold its municipal election on November 1, and North Charleston on November 2.  The municipal elections in the cities of Charleston and Spartanburg and the Spartanburg County school board elections appear to be the biggest elections this November.

The only two partisan local elections (i.e., with primaries) scheduled this year according to the State Election Commission are those in the cities of Aiken and Georgetown.

As I said earlier when I complained, I can understand why South Carolina wasn't one of the first, but given the realities of when the Legislature will leave Columbia, we do need to not be one of the last.

For those who want to get an idea of the insanity of South Carolina local elections, here's a link to the schedule the State Election Commission has.

http://www.scvotes.org/files/2011-03-02%20Election%20Calendar.pdf

Even before any special elections are added to the mix, it is a total of twenty-two different election days.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The timing for those states is much more critical than a state that just needs to have something done by this time next year.

Problem is, unless DOJ preclearance and the inevitable VRA lawsuits are taken care of more quickly than I expect, the General Assembly needs to pass a plan this session, not at the start of the next session to have things done by this time next year. This session is scheduled to end, as does every regular session, on the first Thursday of June. June 2.  There are provisions for extending the session if the budget is delayed, but non-budget matters require a 2/3 vote of each house after June 2.  The GOP is in control, but it doesn't have a 2/3 majority in either House.  A partisan redistricting plan will not pass during an extended session.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Here's a national gain/loss map so far.

Is that keyed relative to 2000 or to the average gain from 2000 to 2010?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Next week: Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Minnesota, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota and Tennessee.

ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRG!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Now comes the wait for the 2010 data for South Carolina to be added to Dave's Redistricting App.  Let's hope that doesn't take as long as it did for the Census Bureau to release it in the first place.  Indeed, I'm hoping that once the last States are released, Dave will make a special push to update the laggards and have all 50 states ready by next Monday, but I expect it'll likely be two or three weeks.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

South Carolina
Every one of the top 20 counties grew.

Make that every one of the current top 20 counties.  The #17 county for 2000, Laurens County, lost population, which is precisely why it no longer is in the top 20 at all.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I wonder if this means that a 2nd Black-majority district isn't required.  It was hard enough trying to draw two beforehand.

The expectation has been that they'll be able to get away with just one, but we'll see.  It will end up being a hellacious looking gerrymander if they can, and if they can, it likely will be one that can't be drawn exactly using Dave's Apportionment Program.  South Carolina has used split precincts before, and if need be it probably will again.  Back in the early 90's I lived in a split precinct in Columbia that was right at the tip of the curlique in the border between the 2nd and 6th districts.  Going in a straight line in any direction from where I lived then, you crossed the boundary between the 2nd and 6th districts at least three times.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I would have guessed that Greenville or Spartanburg would have made the top 5 cities.  This was somewhat similar to Orlando, which is actually a pretty small city.

It can be quite difficult for a municipality in South Carolina to expand its borders on anything like a logical basis.