2012 GOP: Palin/Romney/Gingrich

[Thomas D]

Palin wins Iowa. Romney wins New Hampshire. Gingrich wins South Carolina. After that they are the only 3 left standing. How do the other 47 states go? Discuss. With maps if you'd like.

[Psychic Octopus]

Romney wins Nevada. Romney wins Florida. Romney is the big winner on Super Tuesday, and recieves the nomination. Newt's victory in South Carolina would derail Palin, but assuming she stays in the race through Super Tuesday, their division help Romney. If Palin drops out after South Carolina, then it becomes a two person race between Romney and Newt.

[Poundingtherock]

In this three-way contest, the only states that I would bet against Palin in would be Utah, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Hampshire, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Georgia.

Other than that, I don't see how Romney can hold onto Florida, California, Colorado, or Nevada in this particular three-way contest.  If I were Romney, I'd offer Huckabee a cold $5 million to run.

I don't see any scenario that could unfold with Palin winning Iowa and then failing to win South Carolina against Newt Gingrich.  Newt was at 10% in the exit poll of SC republicans, which seems a little low for him but perhaps the conservative South Caorlina indies would bring up his number.

[Rowan]

I have to agree. How the hell does Palin win Iowa and then lose South Carolina?

[Poundingtherock]

I'll also grant she won't win Rhode Island in this three-way contest.  I would normally concede Delaware but after the hapless Christine O'Donnell managed to defeat Mike Castle, a man more respected than Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich, I suspect Palin would win it as well in this particular three-way contest.

1 for Gingrich (Georgia)

7 for Romney (Utah, New York, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, New Hampshire)

The remaining 42 states go for Palin.

I'll concede DC and the territories to Romney.

[Thomas D]

I have to agree. How the hell does Palin win Iowa and then lose South Carolina?

I just wanted to construct a scenario where 3 different people win the first 3 contests and this is what I came up with.

[California8429]

Red-Romney
Green-Gingrich
Blue-Palin

Palin keeps Gingrich from clinching the nomination, Romney wins, unless it goes to convention then who knows

[5280]

You should put Palin in for Idaho, I think that would cater to her more than Romney.

[Mr. Morden]

You should put Palin in for Idaho, I think that would cater to her more than Romney.

Second largest Mormon population (per capita) after Utah.  20-25% I think.....which means that among GOP primary voters, it's probably something like 35-40%.

[5280]

Ah, I didn't figure that out. Bleh...

[Rowan]

You should put Palin in for Idaho, I think that would cater to her more than Romney.

Second largest Mormon population (per capita) after Utah.  20-25% I think.....which means that among GOP primary voters, it's probably something like 35-40%.

How many Mormon's are in Colorado?

[Thomas D]

Romney-Red
Gingrich-Green
Palin-Blue

It goes to the convention. Not sure what happens from there.

[Yelnoc]

Thomas D, your scenario probably ends with a Gingrich/Palin or Palin/Gingrich ticket which is promptly slaughtered in the general election.

[Whacker77]

I have to agree. How the hell does Palin win Iowa and then lose South Carolina?

My sentiments exactly.  If she wins Iowa, she wins South Carolina, especially with Haley likely to endorse her.  This is why I say she is the prohibitive favorite.  She will only be stopped if she implodes or some big name on the sidelines gets in late.  The current projected crop is so flawed, in one way or another, they can't generate the support to counter the passion of the Palinites.

A group of candidates could try and gang up on Palin in the debates, but that would all but disqualify them with Palin supporters if she where to quit and they needed to find a new choice.  Having said that, attacks only seem to make Palin stronger.

One question I do have is this.  Would Palin know when to quit in a primary?  I'm not so sure.  If she were to lose in Iowa, that should end her chances, but would she really quit?  I can see her fighting all the way to the convention because her supporters are so strong for her.  Look at O'Donnell and Miller.  They are the two who most personify her and neither one knows when to quit.  COD ran as a write-in after losing her primary in 2006 and then ran twice more.  Miller lost to a write-in and still hasn't quit.

It's just a thought. 

[Stranger in a strange land]

You should put Palin in for Idaho, I think that would cater to her more than Romney.

Second largest Mormon population (per capita) after Utah.  20-25% I think.....which means that among GOP primary voters, it's probably something like 35-40%.

How many Mormon's are in Colorado?

only about 2%. People only think it's full of Mormons because it's next to Utah.

[Ben Romney]

Thune will win IA
Romney NH NV MI FL
Palin SC