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Author Topic: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?  (Read 222628 times)
Frodo
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« Reply #25 on: November 28, 2010, 01:02:53 am »
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Nym90 -please sticky this thread so we can all laugh at it two years from now.  
« Last Edit: November 28, 2010, 01:04:53 am by Frodo »Logged

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« Reply #26 on: November 28, 2010, 01:06:24 am »
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Destined - no, and that is not quite the right word. I think that he'll have a hard fight ahead of him, though, considering that he'll need to do some arm-twisting and win back several key points of the electorate in order to be victorious.

Nym90 -please sticky this thread so we can all laugh at it (and Kevin) two years from now.  

What if he's right? Perhaps we should leave it how it is so we can see in two years.
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« Reply #27 on: November 28, 2010, 02:15:38 am »
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African American turnout will be greatly reduced
Why? Why wouldn't they go out to support their guy?
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« Reply #28 on: November 28, 2010, 05:29:17 am »
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So, the red states are still solid, and the pink ones are leaning dem, while New Hampshire is the only one merely leaning GOP - most GOP states are quite solid I believe.  I still believe that Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia are not joining the anti-Democrat bandwagon as much as so many other states.

Personally I think it will be decided by Virgina:

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« Reply #29 on: November 28, 2010, 06:58:18 am »
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Since the 17th Amendment was adopted in 1913, one only one commander in chief -- elected to at least two terms -- retained same-party majorities in Congress throughout his entire presidency: Franklin Roosevelt.

Woodrow Wilson lost the House and Senate in 1918. Dwight Eisenhower lost both in 1954. Richard Nixon never had same-party control of either house but suffered losses in 1970 and, after resigning, 1974. Ronald Reagan lost the Senate in 1986. Clinton did the same thing as Ike -- lost both in his Year 2, 1994. And George W. Bush lost twice: in the 2001 Senate, with Jim Jeffords (R-Vermont) leaving the 50-50 Senate to caucus with (and turn over majority control to) the Democrats; in 2006, with both houses.

Here's the voting pattern, for the most part, in our elections during the past 100 years: Turn over the White House to a party pickup president. Then watch the party flipped out of the White House come back for vengeance in midterms. Read and listen to people try and merge midterms with presidentials. Watch party pickup president win re-election.



« Last Edit: November 28, 2010, 07:03:13 am by DS0816 »Logged
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« Reply #30 on: November 28, 2010, 07:07:49 am »
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Anyone who claims to have the answer to this question at this point is a hack.

2006 : Is Obama destined to win in 2008 ? LOL
2008 : Are Republicans destined to take the House in 2010 ? LOL
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« Reply #31 on: November 28, 2010, 12:17:20 pm »
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AT THIS POINT...here's what I see as likely.

The economy will be in bad shape.

Better than in early 2009, an Americans will be more patient.

Quote
The President's campaign will sound drastically different than 2008.

Unless it is "We are the grown-ups".
Quote
Young voter turnout will be greatly reduced

African American turnout will be greatly reduced

From 2008 or 2010? From 2010 only if GOP-dominated state governments can effectively cull the vote, which won't be easy, especially if the Federal courts have their way.

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Teaparty/Conservative turnout will be increased

People will begin to see through the lies and greed.

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Republicans will gain 6 electoral votes in the 2012 EV changes

Correct! You just won the teddy bear! Of course you could have gotten it cheaper at a discount store than having kept trying to win it at the carnival.

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States Obama will likely lose:
Indiana
North Carolina
Nebraska CD-2


That gives Republicans 206 electoral votes.

Not too bad a prediction. Only problem: no President has won with between  57.1% (Truman, 1948) and 66.5% of the electoral vote (Taft, 1908) since 1900, which means that President Obama is likely to get under 307 electoral votes or more than 358 electoral votes, which means that the GOP nominee is likely to get either 180 or fewer electoral votes or 231 or more. Someone looking at losing 332-206 in electoral votes will take chances that either win the election outright, make things close, or make winning impossible.   


Quote
The President has gone from his African American/Young voter energizing 2008 self to...well...an incumbent President. Add the gray hair and unpopularity and a bad set of circumstances economically...and his 2008 stardom is gone. SEE: Obama campaigning in 2010. He's looking at the likelihood of losing Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, and Florida. That alone gives the GOP 269, thus the Presidency.

I see him winning all of the states that either Gore or Kerry won  and Colorado and Nevada, which is 273 electoral votes even with what you say. Republicans lost Senate races in Colorado and Nevada.  Turnout goes up -- way up -- in Presidential elections.

Quote
Not to mention if a liberal, African American Democrat could win a Nebraska CD or Indiana, whose to say a conservative Republican can't win Minnesota or Pennsylvania?

I could say the same of Texas by extension on behalf of President Obama. Watch the approval ratings for Senator Toomey in Pennsylvania and Senator Johnson in Wisconsin to see whether the GOP has a real chance to win the electoral votes of Minnesota (which is much like Wisconsin politically) or Pennsylvania. 
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dead0man
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« Reply #32 on: November 28, 2010, 01:54:14 pm »
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The irrational exuberance of Republicans on this forum is amusing.
...as is the pessimism of the left.
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Was that wrong? Should I have not done that? I tell you, I gotta plead ignorance on this thing because if anyone had said anything to me at all when I first started here that that sort of thing was frowned upon, you know, ‘cause I've worked in a lot of offices and I tell you people do that all the time.
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« Reply #33 on: November 28, 2010, 01:58:26 pm »
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The irrational exuberance of Republicans on this forum is amusing.
...as is the pessimism of the left.

By "the left" you mean Beet? The guy who believe Christined O'Donnell was favored? Not exactly representative of the left I'd say.
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dead0man
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« Reply #34 on: November 28, 2010, 02:01:40 pm »
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touché
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Was that wrong? Should I have not done that? I tell you, I gotta plead ignorance on this thing because if anyone had said anything to me at all when I first started here that that sort of thing was frowned upon, you know, ‘cause I've worked in a lot of offices and I tell you people do that all the time.
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« Reply #35 on: November 28, 2010, 04:30:42 pm »
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African American turnout will be greatly reduced
Why? Why wouldn't they go out to support their guy?

Enthusiasm will be gone. We elected the first black President. We did so in a year of the highest turnout ever, with a bitter Hillary vs. Obama primary with whom both at one point or another had high amounts of African American support. I can't see them rushing out at anywhere near the levels they did in 2008 next time to re-elect the President.
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« Reply #36 on: November 28, 2010, 04:45:58 pm »
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African American turnout will be greatly reduced
Why? Why wouldn't they go out to support their guy?

Enthusiasm will be gone. We elected the first black President. We did so in a year of the highest turnout ever, with a bitter Hillary vs. Obama primary with whom both at one point or another had high amounts of African American support. I can't see them rushing out at anywhere near the levels they did in 2008 next time to re-elect the President.

Making declarative statements like this are a waste of time this far out, for all we know, the economy could have improved markedly and the GOP commits electoral suicide... or the economy remains sluggish and etc etc...
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« Reply #37 on: November 28, 2010, 04:52:34 pm »
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Anyone who claims to have the answer to this question at this point is a hack.

2006 : Is Obama destined to win in 2008 ? LOL
2008 : Are Republicans destined to take the House in 2010 ? LOL

Smartest post yet in this entire thread.
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« Reply #38 on: November 28, 2010, 05:05:12 pm »
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Anyone who claims to have the answer to this question at this point is a hack.

2006 : Is Obama destined to win in 2008 ? LOL
2008 : Are Republicans destined to take the House in 2010 ? LOL

Smartest post yet in this entire thread.

     Quite true. We can make reasonable guesses as to what things will look like in 2012, but to say with certitude is impossible.
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« Reply #39 on: November 28, 2010, 05:34:59 pm »
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African American turnout will be greatly reduced
Why? Why wouldn't they go out to support their guy?

Enthusiasm will be gone. We elected the first black President. We did so in a year of the highest turnout ever, with a bitter Hillary vs. Obama primary with whom both at one point or another had high amounts of African American support. I can't see them rushing out at anywhere near the levels they did in 2008 next time to re-elect the President.

1. The youngest generation of voters (the ones that Howe and Strauss call the Millennial Generation)  will be an even larger part of the electorate.  Under 31, they will not yet have what might cause them to become cultural conservatives (teenage kids). They remain the most liberal generation in the electorate.

2. Few of the Millennial Generation will have yet to get fully entrenched in any economic gravy train. Most will still have either crappy jobs that pay a pittance or huge student loans. Neither crappy jobs more huge personal debt make one sympathetic to deflationary economics that the GOP promotes.

3. The Millennial Generation is quite rational. It has little use for the Culture Wars of Boomers, and generally none for the pseudoscience and superstition that older Boomers support on behalf of the Religious Right, the Religious Right very much an aging phenomenon. 

4. There will likely be no primary fight among Democrats. Among Republicans there will either be a knockdown, drag-out fight or there will be someone nominated (like Mondale in 1984) for "proven service to the Party".  Neither the survivor of a knock-down, drag-out primary struggle nor someone nominated as a reward for "longtime, dedicated service to the Party" ordinarily fares well in the general election.

5. President Obama showed himself one of the slickest campaigners in American history with one of the best-run campaign machines ever. The GOP will need someone about as effective a campaigner as Ronald Reagan to beat him. Such a candidate will have to be without any regional weaknesses. President Obama can beat any mediocrity.

6. An incumbent either runs on his record and wins or runs from it and loses. President Obama has much legislative success so far, and if he doesn't have many achievements between 2010 and 2012 he will offer a solution -- rebuild the Democratic majority in the House and hold the Democratic majority in the Senate so that he can do so again. 

7. The GOP gets to expose itself in the 112th Congress. If the American people like President Obama and the first priority of Republicans is to make sure that President Obama is defeated in 2012, then guess what happens. Darrell Issa and Michelle Bachmann, self-proclaimed Grand Inquisitors, could make lots of Americans regret having voted for Republicans in the House.

8. The fastest-growing part of the electorate is the Hispanic vote. Until Republicans can convince Mexican-Americans that the GOP isn't for the debasement of education, trickle-down economics, and the harassment of people who have an icon of the Virgin of Guadalupe in their cars, the GOP is going to have little credibility among non-Cuban Hispanics.

9. Watch for rifts between the Tea Party and the Corporate Power cliques.   

 
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« Reply #40 on: November 28, 2010, 06:17:19 pm »
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If the gOP nominate Palin he would win easily
but I dont think he will be our nominee in 2012
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« Reply #41 on: November 28, 2010, 06:26:53 pm »
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1. The youngest generation of voters (the ones that Howe and Strauss call the Millennial Generation)  will be an even larger part of the electorate.  Under 31, they will not yet have what might cause them to become cultural conservatives (teenage kids). They remain the most liberal generation in the electorate.

Doesn't change the fact that they won't be showing up in their 2008 numbers.

Quote
2. Few of the Millennial Generation will have yet to get fully entrenched in any economic gravy train. Most will still have either crappy jobs that pay a pittance or huge student loans. Neither crappy jobs more huge personal debt make one sympathetic to deflationary economics that the GOP promotes.

Incorrect. If anything, Obama's policies are becoming increasingly discussed among all ages as one of the reasons the economy is in the tank. "Tax and Spend liberal" fears have always kept us from electing President's like Obama, but now that we have and have seen what has transpired...Reaganomics and Bush-era tax policy appears more favorable than in 2008.

Quote
3. The Millennial Generation is quite rational. It has little use for the Culture Wars of Boomers, and generally none for the pseudoscience and superstition that older Boomers support on behalf of the Religious Right, the Religious Right very much an aging phenomenon.

Maybe among some issues, however the massive defeat of Gay Marriage in many states and the loss of dangerous drug legalization...even in a state like California...shows that many Americans still hold those issues dear. Remember, there are registered young voters in America...places like Mississippi, West Virginia, Texas, ect ect who may still go out and party and be promiscuous...but they believe in the sanctity of human life, the traditional values of marriage, and make it to Church every week.

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4. There will likely be no primary fight among Democrats. Among Republicans there will either be a knockdown, drag-out fight or there will be someone nominated (like Mondale in 1984) for "proven service to the Party".  Neither the survivor of a knock-down, drag-out primary struggle nor someone nominated as a reward for "longtime, dedicated service to the Party" ordinarily fares well in the general election.

Clinton...Bush...Obama...are you serious?

Quote
5. President Obama showed himself one of the slickest campaigners in American history with one of the best-run campaign machines ever. The GOP will need someone about as effective a campaigner as Ronald Reagan to beat him. Such a candidate will have to be without any regional weaknesses. President Obama can beat any mediocrity.

But he is seen as a different Obama. In 2008, he was a "rock star". People voted for him just on the basis of his race, his speeches, ect. But then, suddenly....he became a President. Aging and rising unpopularity and suddenly being what needs the "change" will hurt him in 2012.

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6. An incumbent either runs on his record and wins or runs from it and loses. President Obama has much legislative success so far, and if he doesn't have many achievements between 2010 and 2012 he will offer a solution -- rebuild the Democratic majority in the House and hold the Democratic majority in the Senate so that he can do so again.

This may be the President's biggest problem. He's not going to be having to battle for his re-election because he couldn't get things done. He's going to have to battle for his re-election because he did get the things done, and America, thus far, has not responded kindly. 

Quote
7. The GOP gets to expose itself in the 112th Congress. If the American people like President Obama and the first priority of Republicans is to make sure that President Obama is defeated in 2012, then guess what happens. Darrell Issa and Michelle Bachmann, self-proclaimed Grand Inquisitors, could make lots of Americans regret having voted for Republicans in the House.

Indeed, this is a wait and see. Let's hope our party learned it's lessons from 1995.

Quote
8. The fastest-growing part of the electorate is the Hispanic vote. Until Republicans can convince Mexican-Americans that the GOP isn't for the debasement of education, trickle-down economics, and the harassment of people who have an icon of the Virgin of Guadalupe in their cars, the GOP is going to have little credibility among non-Cuban Hispanics.

Not true, in fact...I'd guess that support peaked for Democrats in 2006 and 2008. I think in the coming years, with more diverse Republicans in office, and the plausible situation of a Marco Rubio candidacy, I think the GOP will improve in this area.

Quote
9. Watch for rifts between the Tea Party and the Corporate Power cliques.
   

The only possible national candidate who is doing right in this regard is Marco Rubio. Teapartiers love him, but he's not seen as a Teaparty candidate but rather a traditional, Reagan-mold conservative. Let's hope whoever we nominate in 2012, both sides of conservatives get behind.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2010, 06:29:15 pm by Reaganfan »Logged

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« Reply #42 on: November 28, 2010, 06:30:56 pm »
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They don't actually need to come out in 2008 numbers in order for Obama to win...
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« Reply #43 on: November 28, 2010, 06:37:40 pm »
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They don't actually need to come out in 2008 numbers in order for Obama to win...

But it makes a difference. Remember, if a good chunk of those Circa-1996 "let me take my kids to Soccer practice, then rent them "Jumanji" then go to bed watching Stone Phillips on Dateline NBC talk about how a kid misbehaving needs medication" women hadn't shown up, Bill Clinton wouldn't have been re-elected President.

PS: Sorry for the anti-90s outburst, you know how I feel about that...and for that time I can say, I was there.
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« Reply #44 on: November 28, 2010, 06:43:29 pm »
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I don't think he's destined to lose re-election, but I do think he's in a lot of trouble.  The economy is still in the toilet and jobs aren't being created as fast as the country needs.  I do think things have improved a little since Bush left office, but not enough to write home about.  I really think it all depends on the economy.  If it grows faster than what it has been, he might be alright, but if the economy stays stagnant he might be sleeping in Chicago the night of Sunday, January 20, 2013.
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« Reply #45 on: November 29, 2010, 06:41:59 am »
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No.
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« Reply #46 on: November 29, 2010, 08:53:21 am »
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Can Barack Obama be blamed for BushOK quittinglosing his previous job?
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« Reply #47 on: November 29, 2010, 11:39:44 am »
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He's not destined, but there's a good chance he will.
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« Reply #48 on: November 29, 2010, 03:07:12 pm »
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For the first time I think it's possible........I mean the libs here are far more venomous in attacking the guy than the conservatives or moderates, who are simply content to let him shoot himself in the foot.

Of course the pubs need a very strong candidate, and frankly I don't see one yet.
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« Reply #49 on: November 29, 2010, 07:42:30 pm »
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Quote
1. The youngest generation of voters (the ones that Howe and Strauss call the Millennial Generation)  will be an even larger part of the electorate.  Under 31, they will not yet have what might cause them to become cultural conservatives (teenage kids). They remain the most liberal generation in the electorate.

Doesn't change the fact that they won't be showing up in their 2008 numbers.

There will be more just because of the aging of one of the most liberal generations of voters. Nothing that the GOP is likely to do will make them more politically conservative. Indeed, make appeals for tax cuts that favor only the super-rich while either bloating the deficit or being offset by taxes that hit the non-rich, for wage cuts, or for destruction of workers' rights on behalf or economic elites, and young voters who have little immediate stake in dividends and share prices will vote their economic interests.

It is possible that the Hard Right was unusually-well organized in 2010 and many liberal-leaning voters stayed home; in Presidential elections the electorate usually expands.  
Quote
Quote
2. Few of the Millennial Generation will have yet to get fully entrenched in any economic gravy train. Most will still have either crappy jobs that pay a pittance or huge student loans. Neither crappy jobs more huge personal debt make one sympathetic to deflationary economics that the GOP promotes.

Incorrect. If anything, Obama's policies are becoming increasingly discussed among all ages as one of the reasons the economy is in the tank. "Tax and Spend liberal" fears have always kept us from electing President's like Obama, but now that we have and have seen what has transpired...Reaganomics and Bush-era tax policy appears more favorable than in 2008.

Memes such as "tax-and-spend liberal" weaken with time. the Hard Right will need fresh bromides for 2012.  

Quote
Quote
3. The Millennial Generation is quite rational. It has little use for the Culture Wars of Boomers, and generally none for the pseudoscience and superstition that older Boomers support on behalf of the Religious Right, the Religious Right very much an aging phenomenon.

Maybe among some issues, however the massive defeat of Gay Marriage in many states and the loss of dangerous drug legalization...even in a state like California...shows that many Americans still hold those issues dear. Remember, there are registered young voters in America...places like Mississippi, West Virginia, Texas, ect ect who may still go out and party and be promiscuous...but they believe in the sanctity of human life, the traditional values of marriage, and make it to Church every week.

President Obama won't be running on gay marriage or the legalization of marijuana, itself much less dangerous than stupidwater (alcohol). As for Mississippi, Texas, and West Virginia, he lost those states in 2008, and it would take miracles to win any one of them.  The economic situation and foreign/military policy will matter far more in 2012 than in 2008. In 2008 Senator Obama ran on promises. In 2012 he runs on his record and wins or runs from it and loses.

So you tell me how President Obama loses:

These are the states decided by margins less than 12% in 2008:


State            Electoral        Total       (meaningless) Vote          Pct
                      Votes            Votes                           Margin      margin
        

Pennsylvania   21   0   6,015,476   1   2   620,478   10.31%   
Minnesota   10   0   2,910,369   1   2   297,945   10.24%   
NH                    4   0   710,970           1   2   68,292   9.61%   
Iowa            7   0   1,537,123   1   2   146,561   9.53%   
Colorado        9   0   2,401,462   1   2   215,004   8.95%   
Virginia           13   0   3,723,260   1   2   234,527   6.30%   
Ohio                   20   0   5,721,815   1   2   262,224   4.58%   
Florida           27   0   8,411,861   1   2   236,148   2.81%   
Indiana           11   0   2,756,340   1   2   28,391   1.03%   
North Carolina   15   0   4,310,789   1   2   14,177   0.33%   
Missouri           0   11   2,929,111   2   1   3,903   0.13%   
Montana           0     3   492,750      2   1   11,723   2.38%
Georgia         0   15   3,932,158   2   1   204,636   5.20%   
South Dakota   0     3    381,975           2   1   32,130   8.41%
Arizona          0   10   2,303,838   2   1   195,404   8.48%
North Dakota   0     3   317,738           2   1   27,484   8.65%   
South Carolina   0     8   1,920,969   2   1   172,447   8.98%   
Texas           0   34   8,087,402   2   1   950,695   11.76%   

The 2010 Senate election showed that Colorado is probably a stronger Democratic state than either Iowa or New Hampshire. Should President Obama win every state that he won at least as strongly as Colorado in 2012 and nothing else, he wins just over 270 electoral votes. The Republicans will need about a 4.8% swing of the popular vote nationwide to swing either Iowa or New Hampshire, both now apparently more vulnerable than Colorado.  President Obama would need a miracle if he loses either Iowa or New Hampshire.  Florida, Ohio, or Virginia  would be such miracles. The auto bailout might be enough to win Ohio for Obama (and the Presidential election) without one or both of Iowa and New Hampshire. Virginia has been drifting D for a couple decades. Florida goes D if environmental issues come to the fore.

Do you see how difficult it would be for the Republicans to win the Presidency in 2012? before you say "Pennsylvania" -- Texas is about as close to being a Democratic win. Political cultures do not change overnight.



« Last Edit: November 29, 2010, 07:45:33 pm by pbrower2a »Logged



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