Is Obama destined to lose reelection? (user search)
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  Is Obama destined to lose reelection? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?  (Read 264163 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« on: November 27, 2010, 12:02:35 AM »

It has nothing to with destiny, just choices.

Obama is not in as bad a position as some would like to believe. It's 2 years to go, we don't know who he's going up against... so many variables, and so much time left.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #1 on: November 28, 2010, 04:45:58 PM »

African American turnout will be greatly reduced
Why? Why wouldn't they go out to support their guy?

Enthusiasm will be gone. We elected the first black President. We did so in a year of the highest turnout ever, with a bitter Hillary vs. Obama primary with whom both at one point or another had high amounts of African American support. I can't see them rushing out at anywhere near the levels they did in 2008 next time to re-elect the President.

Making declarative statements like this are a waste of time this far out, for all we know, the economy could have improved markedly and the GOP commits electoral suicide... or the economy remains sluggish and etc etc...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #2 on: November 28, 2010, 06:30:56 PM »

They don't actually need to come out in 2008 numbers in order for Obama to win...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2010, 08:29:28 PM »


Hacks don't discuss the mechanics of elections and don't try to use history as a guide to the future. hacks speak of "waves of the future" and use bad methods of statistics.

I have a big peeve with statistical extrapolation -- that is, looking at a short-term trend and using it to forecast the distant future. In effect, don't use December forecasts to predict what will happen in June.

Sure, I have my ideological bias. I am a liberal and a humanist. I worked on behalf of a Democratic Congressman who has lost to some Bible-thumping stooge of Big Oil and Wall Street hedge-fund managers who have almost no constituency in his district, and I despised the results. I have much contempt for dictatorship and oligarchy, for dirty tricks (including Orwellian propaganda), and for ideologies that debase people.  But who here doesn't have an ideological bias?

Liberalism and humanism have elevated humanity. Conservatism at its best protects what is good from radical challenges (including Communism, Nazism, and Fascism) that destroy what is good. Unfortunately, what passes for conservatism these days is a ringing endorsement of superstition, bigotry,  irresponsible hierarchy, and pervasive corruption. America will be a better place when conservatism rediscovers the need to foster something worthy of preservation.

Ah, humanism, aka "Godless Statism".

Ah... theocratic fascism
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