Is Obama destined to lose reelection? (user search)
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  Is Obama destined to lose reelection? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?  (Read 264847 times)
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,546


« on: November 26, 2010, 10:41:28 PM »

It all depends on the economy.  If Obama can get unemployment below 8% by June 2012, he will probably win reelection.  I say June because that is usually when opinions harden about a bad economy.  A strong third quarter and declining unemployment after June 1992 didnt help Bush 41 at all. 
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,546


« Reply #1 on: November 30, 2010, 05:44:21 PM »

Facepalm at the idea that Obama had "one of the best run campaigns ever".  One of the worst economic downturns in our history happen right before election and the other party's president had approval ratings in the high 20's, yet Obama won only 52.87% of the vote.
Harry Truman and John Kennedy would make this guy look like an absolute noob.

If somebody told you after the 2004 election than in four years a first-term liberal black senator with a Muslim name would take 53% of the vote, carrying Virginia, Indiana and North Carolina, would you believe him?

After the 2004 election, but after the economic f***fest that took place in October 2008?
If the Democratic candidate was Rainman I wouldn'tve been surprised if he won 55%.

The country is highly polarized.  The economic crisis was probably the difference between Obama squeaking out a 50%-49% win and his actual 53%-46% win.  There just are not that many persuadable voters anymore. 
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