Is Obama destined to lose reelection?

[Reaganfan]

I think a bigger problem is that the American electorate just seems tired of all politicians at all levels and is willing to dump parties or persons in power every cycle. See: Ohio 2004-2010. Went from GOP in Presidency 2004, to DEM in 2006 Midterms, to DEM in Presidency in 2008, to GOP in 2010 Midterms.

[Reaganfan]

AT THIS POINT...here's what I see as likely.

The economy will be in bad shape.
The President's campaign will sound drastically different than 2008.
Young voter turnout will be greatly reduced
African American turnout will be greatly reduced
Teaparty/Conservative turnout will be increased
Republicans will gain 6 electoral votes in the 2012 EV changes

States Obama will likely lose:
Indiana
North Carolina
Nebraska CD-2

That gives Republicans 206 electoral votes.

The President has gone from his African American/Young voter energizing 2008 self to...well...an incumbent President. Add the gray hair and unpopularity and a bad set of circumstances economically...and his 2008 stardom is gone. SEE: Obama campaigning in 2010. He's looking at the likelihood of losing Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, and Florida. That alone gives the GOP 269, thus the Presidency.

Not to mention if a liberal, African American Democrat could win a Nebraska CD or Indiana, whose to say a conservative Republican can't win Minnesota or Pennsylvania?

[Reaganfan]

African American turnout will be greatly reduced

Why? Why wouldn't they go out to support their guy?

Enthusiasm will be gone. We elected the first black President. We did so in a year of the highest turnout ever, with a bitter Hillary vs. Obama primary with whom both at one point or another had high amounts of African American support. I can't see them rushing out at anywhere near the levels they did in 2008 next time to re-elect the President.

[Reaganfan]

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Doesn't change the fact that they won't be showing up in their 2008 numbers.

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Incorrect. If anything, Obama's policies are becoming increasingly discussed among all ages as one of the reasons the economy is in the tank. "Tax and Spend liberal" fears have always kept us from electing President's like Obama, but now that we have and have seen what has transpired...Reaganomics and Bush-era tax policy appears more favorable than in 2008.

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Maybe among some issues, however the massive defeat of Gay Marriage in many states and the loss of dangerous drug legalization...even in a state like California...shows that many Americans still hold those issues dear. Remember, there are registered young voters in America...places like Mississippi, West Virginia, Texas, ect ect who may still go out and party and be promiscuous...but they believe in the sanctity of human life, the traditional values of marriage, and make it to Church every week.

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Clinton...Bush...Obama...are you serious?

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But he is seen as a different Obama. In 2008, he was a "rock star". People voted for him just on the basis of his race, his speeches, ect. But then, suddenly....he became a President. Aging and rising unpopularity and suddenly being what needs the "change" will hurt him in 2012.

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This may be the President's biggest problem. He's not going to be having to battle for his re-election because he couldn't get things done. He's going to have to battle for his re-election because he did get the things done, and America, thus far, has not responded kindly. 

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Indeed, this is a wait and see. Let's hope our party learned it's lessons from 1995.

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Not true, in fact...I'd guess that support peaked for Democrats in 2006 and 2008. I think in the coming years, with more diverse Republicans in office, and the plausible situation of a Marco Rubio candidacy, I think the GOP will improve in this area.

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The only possible national candidate who is doing right in this regard is Marco Rubio. Teapartiers love him, but he's not seen as a Teaparty candidate but rather a traditional, Reagan-mold conservative. Let's hope whoever we nominate in 2012, both sides of conservatives get behind.

[Reaganfan]

They don't actually need to come out in 2008 numbers in order for Obama to win...

But it makes a difference. Remember, if a good chunk of those Circa-1996 "let me take my kids to Soccer practice, then rent them "Jumanji" then go to bed watching Stone Phillips on Dateline NBC talk about how a kid misbehaving needs medication" women hadn't shown up, Bill Clinton wouldn't have been re-elected President.

PS: Sorry for the anti-90s outburst, you know how I feel about that...and for that time I can say, I was there.