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Author Topic: Is Obama destined to lose reelection?  (Read 236535 times)
The Voice of America
Reaganfan
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« on: November 27, 2010, 12:25:12 am »

I think a bigger problem is that the American electorate just seems tired of all politicians at all levels and is willing to dump parties or persons in power every cycle. See: Ohio 2004-2010. Went from GOP in Presidency 2004, to DEM in 2006 Midterms, to DEM in Presidency in 2008, to GOP in 2010 Midterms.

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The Voice of America
Reaganfan
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« Reply #1 on: November 28, 2010, 12:52:06 am »

AT THIS POINT...here's what I see as likely.

The economy will be in bad shape.
The President's campaign will sound drastically different than 2008.
Young voter turnout will be greatly reduced
African American turnout will be greatly reduced
Teaparty/Conservative turnout will be increased
Republicans will gain 6 electoral votes in the 2012 EV changes

States Obama will likely lose:
Indiana
North Carolina
Nebraska CD-2

That gives Republicans 206 electoral votes.

The President has gone from his African American/Young voter energizing 2008 self to...well...an incumbent President. Add the gray hair and unpopularity and a bad set of circumstances economically...and his 2008 stardom is gone. SEE: Obama campaigning in 2010. He's looking at the likelihood of losing Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, and Florida. That alone gives the GOP 269, thus the Presidency.

Not to mention if a liberal, African American Democrat could win a Nebraska CD or Indiana, whose to say a conservative Republican can't win Minnesota or Pennsylvania?
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The Voice of America
Reaganfan
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« Reply #2 on: November 28, 2010, 04:30:42 pm »

African American turnout will be greatly reduced
Why? Why wouldn't they go out to support their guy?

Enthusiasm will be gone. We elected the first black President. We did so in a year of the highest turnout ever, with a bitter Hillary vs. Obama primary with whom both at one point or another had high amounts of African American support. I can't see them rushing out at anywhere near the levels they did in 2008 next time to re-elect the President.
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The Voice of America
Reaganfan
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« Reply #3 on: November 28, 2010, 06:26:53 pm »

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1. The youngest generation of voters (the ones that Howe and Strauss call the Millennial Generation)  will be an even larger part of the electorate.  Under 31, they will not yet have what might cause them to become cultural conservatives (teenage kids). They remain the most liberal generation in the electorate.

Doesn't change the fact that they won't be showing up in their 2008 numbers.

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2. Few of the Millennial Generation will have yet to get fully entrenched in any economic gravy train. Most will still have either crappy jobs that pay a pittance or huge student loans. Neither crappy jobs more huge personal debt make one sympathetic to deflationary economics that the GOP promotes.

Incorrect. If anything, Obama's policies are becoming increasingly discussed among all ages as one of the reasons the economy is in the tank. "Tax and Spend liberal" fears have always kept us from electing President's like Obama, but now that we have and have seen what has transpired...Reaganomics and Bush-era tax policy appears more favorable than in 2008.

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3. The Millennial Generation is quite rational. It has little use for the Culture Wars of Boomers, and generally none for the pseudoscience and superstition that older Boomers support on behalf of the Religious Right, the Religious Right very much an aging phenomenon.

Maybe among some issues, however the massive defeat of Gay Marriage in many states and the loss of dangerous drug legalization...even in a state like California...shows that many Americans still hold those issues dear. Remember, there are registered young voters in America...places like Mississippi, West Virginia, Texas, ect ect who may still go out and party and be promiscuous...but they believe in the sanctity of human life, the traditional values of marriage, and make it to Church every week.

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4. There will likely be no primary fight among Democrats. Among Republicans there will either be a knockdown, drag-out fight or there will be someone nominated (like Mondale in 1984) for "proven service to the Party".  Neither the survivor of a knock-down, drag-out primary struggle nor someone nominated as a reward for "longtime, dedicated service to the Party" ordinarily fares well in the general election.

Clinton...Bush...Obama...are you serious?

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5. President Obama showed himself one of the slickest campaigners in American history with one of the best-run campaign machines ever. The GOP will need someone about as effective a campaigner as Ronald Reagan to beat him. Such a candidate will have to be without any regional weaknesses. President Obama can beat any mediocrity.

But he is seen as a different Obama. In 2008, he was a "rock star". People voted for him just on the basis of his race, his speeches, ect. But then, suddenly....he became a President. Aging and rising unpopularity and suddenly being what needs the "change" will hurt him in 2012.

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6. An incumbent either runs on his record and wins or runs from it and loses. President Obama has much legislative success so far, and if he doesn't have many achievements between 2010 and 2012 he will offer a solution -- rebuild the Democratic majority in the House and hold the Democratic majority in the Senate so that he can do so again.

This may be the President's biggest problem. He's not going to be having to battle for his re-election because he couldn't get things done. He's going to have to battle for his re-election because he did get the things done, and America, thus far, has not responded kindly. 

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7. The GOP gets to expose itself in the 112th Congress. If the American people like President Obama and the first priority of Republicans is to make sure that President Obama is defeated in 2012, then guess what happens. Darrell Issa and Michelle Bachmann, self-proclaimed Grand Inquisitors, could make lots of Americans regret having voted for Republicans in the House.

Indeed, this is a wait and see. Let's hope our party learned it's lessons from 1995.

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8. The fastest-growing part of the electorate is the Hispanic vote. Until Republicans can convince Mexican-Americans that the GOP isn't for the debasement of education, trickle-down economics, and the harassment of people who have an icon of the Virgin of Guadalupe in their cars, the GOP is going to have little credibility among non-Cuban Hispanics.

Not true, in fact...I'd guess that support peaked for Democrats in 2006 and 2008. I think in the coming years, with more diverse Republicans in office, and the plausible situation of a Marco Rubio candidacy, I think the GOP will improve in this area.

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9. Watch for rifts between the Tea Party and the Corporate Power cliques.
   

The only possible national candidate who is doing right in this regard is Marco Rubio. Teapartiers love him, but he's not seen as a Teaparty candidate but rather a traditional, Reagan-mold conservative. Let's hope whoever we nominate in 2012, both sides of conservatives get behind.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2010, 06:29:15 pm by Reaganfan »Logged
The Voice of America
Reaganfan
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« Reply #4 on: November 28, 2010, 06:37:40 pm »

They don't actually need to come out in 2008 numbers in order for Obama to win...

But it makes a difference. Remember, if a good chunk of those Circa-1996 "let me take my kids to Soccer practice, then rent them "Jumanji" then go to bed watching Stone Phillips on Dateline NBC talk about how a kid misbehaving needs medication" women hadn't shown up, Bill Clinton wouldn't have been re-elected President.

PS: Sorry for the anti-90s outburst, you know how I feel about that...and for that time I can say, I was there.
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