UK 2005- Seat by Seat Part 4 (South East)

[Silent Hunter]

Very strong Tory territory this.

Constituency MP Name Party Prediction 
Arundel and South Downs  Howard Flight  CON Hold
Ashford  Damien Green  CON Hold
Bexhill and Battle  Greg Barker  CON Hold
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton  Nick Gibb  CON Hold
Brighton Kemptown  Desmond Turner  LAB Hold
Brighton Pavilion  David Lepper  LAB Hold
Canterbury  Julian Brazier  CON Hold
Chatham and Aylesford  Jonathan Shaw  LAB Hold
Chichester  Andrew Tyrie  CON Hold
Crawley  Laura Moffatt  LAB Hold
Dartford  Howard Stoate  LAB Hold
Dover  Gwyn Prosser  LAB Hold
Eastbourne  Nigel Waterson  CON Hold
Faversham and Kent Mid  Hugh Robertson  CON Hold
Folkestone and Hythe  Michael Howard  CON Hold: He had a majority just under 6,000 last time around. If Labour and the Lib Dems fight each other, he'll sail through. If one or the other stands aside, there's a small chance we could see a leader ejection for the first time since Balfour. I also have heard that the ITV election reality show candidate may be standing here.
Gillingham  Paul Clark  LAB Hold
Gravesham  Chris Pond  LAB Hold
Hastings and Rye  Michael Foster  LAB Hold
Horsham  Francis Maude  CON Hold
Hove  Ivor Caplin  CON Gain from Lab: Caplin is in serious danger down here.
Lewes  Norman Baker  LIB Hold
Maidstone and The Weald  Ann Widdecombe  CON Hold: She may now be blonde, but this isn't going yellow- or red for that matter.
Medway  Robert Marshall-Andrews  LAB Hold
Sevenoaks  Michael Fallon  CON Hold
Sittingbourne and Sheppey  Derek Wyatt  LAB Hold
Sussex Mid  Nicholas Soames  CON Hold
Thanet North  Roger Gale  CON Hold
Thanet South  Stephen Ladyman  LAB Hold: Home of UKIP, I'd have given them a fair shot at a pickup here. With no Kilroy-Silk, it now looks highly unlikely. Don't rule out the Tories 3rd placing.
Tonbridge and Malling  John Stanley  CON Hold
Tunbridge Wells  Archie Norman  CON Hold
Wealden  Charles Hendry  CON Hold
Worthing East and Shoreham  Tim Loughton  CON Hold
Worthing West  Peter Bottomley  CON Hold

[English]

Agree.
The Tories might pick up Hove.

[Silent Hunter]

Updated.

[Peter]

I think Kent and East Sussex are much more fertile ground for the Tories than you are giving them credit for; These are really about the only two counties where they could make significant gains throughout the country.

It wouldn't surprise me if the swing to the Tories in Kent approaches about 7%, which obviously takes a few seats with it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

IIRC Caplin is standing down

[Tory]

I'm living in an interesting seat for the next election, and no, I haven't decided who to vote for (either Lab or Green).

Why not the Lib Dems?