PPP: Huckabee and Palin leading in Missouri

[TomC]

More proof that Palin's power is being overstated.

Yeah overstated again and again and again and again. Oh and again...

The joke and/or jab is going over my head. Care to explain?  

Sure but put your tongue back in your mouth, please. I agree she's overblown, but the woman dominates political media.

Hold the hostility assuming you're not joking around. Thanks.

She can't be dominating as much as everyone thinks. Her position in the polls has her barely ahead or trailing Huckabee in several contests and the fight hasn't even begun.

Always joking, but you are welcome. Thanks for extending me the same courtesy.

[Keystone Phil]

Always joking, but you are welcome. Thanks for extending me the same courtesy.

Noted.

[CatoMinor]

Would anyone abject to just assuming Utah will go for Romney and filling it in now lol?

Red- Giant Douche; Blue - Huck, Pink - Palin;Light Green - T-Paw; Green - Gingrich

[Mr. Morden]

Would anyone abject to just assuming Utah will go for Romney and filling it in now lol?

Well, there are polls from other polling firms besides PPP from earlier in the year, which you could include if you like:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2012

Mason Dixon did a Utah poll in April, which had Romney at 73%, and Palin in second with 9%.  I'm guessing that even if the margin has narrowed, he's still ahead.

[Poundingtherock]

The map looks even worse for Romney.  15 of the 21 states polled thus far were states won by Obama.  Only six of them were won by McCain/Palin.

His problem really isn't "red-state" Republicans.  Barely any such Republicans have been polled.  His problem is that he's barely beating, if at all, Palin and Huckabee even when both of them are in the same race in blue states.

And even in the states where he leads, with the exception of New Hampshire and connecticut, his lead is based on the fact that Palin and Huckabee are both in the race when it is pretty unreasonable to assume both will run based on Huckabee's hilariously awful PAC fundraising.

Basically, Romney should be cleaning up in these polls.  These are his states after all.  The worst has yet to come (though I suppose some could argue that "Mormon" red states are coming but I he could very well be bleeding Mormons at this point).

[Mr. Morden]

Not to mention Palin's big flaws- is she serious, smart enough etc?- are extremely well exposed questions and she withstands them for polling w/in MOE of lead.  Huckabee, Gingrich and Romney: their Achilles Heels (pardons, RomneyCare, messy personal life) are, I'd guess, currently known by less than 10% of voters.

I don't know.  I think Palin's biggest liability is the fact that she quit halfway through her first term for no good reason.  I think she'd struggle to explain that one away, and I'd be curious to know exactly what percentage of voters actually even know about that.

With regard to her other apparent "gaffes", that stuff is being glossed over on the Right right now, while she's pitted against Democrats.  It's not clear to me how it would all play in a race in which she's running against other Republicans.

Anyway, I think it's important to keep the current polls in perspective.  It is *really* early.  Polls in places like Missouri or California or whatever don't mean much of anything yet.  The trends with different demographic groups are interesting, but that's about it.  IMHO, with polls this far out, you just ask "Is anyone ahead by like 30 points everywhere?  No?  OK, then don't worry about the polls yet."

[Bull Moose Base]

I'd personally guess most know about her early resignation, it was a major national story that spilled into pop culture and late night comedy.  Certainly way more than know about her rivals' issues.  And I think it's less of a pitfall than exuding unqualified, the latter has more potential to cost her votes imo.  I agree on polls except consider Iowa and NH (where Romney is ahead by 30) to have some value.  I'm sloppily assuming IA resembles MO.  Palin's dilemma caused by doubts about her qualifications, in my view, is that if she makes a string of new gaffes it could exacerbate her image problems, which would recommend late entry in the race and a smaller window to slip, but that could leave an opponent like Pence or Thune a few months headstart to attract  the attention of the Evangelcial voters she'd depend on.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm sloppily assuming IA resembles MO.

I would definitely *not* assume that, given that Huckabee and Romney campaigned there for like a year.  Iowa is likely to already have a much better-formed opinion of them than Missouri.