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Author Topic: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread  (Read 60783 times)
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #250 on: September 26, 2011, 06:13:28 am »
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So apparently a couple of months ago, the Nevada GOP voted to tether their caucus date to the NH primary date:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64375_Page2.html

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The party’s executive board voted in July to tether Nevada’s date to New Hampshire. Now, rather than stating that the caucus will definitely be held on Feb. 18, party rules state that it will be held “the Saturday after New Hampshire,” according to Nevada Republican officials.

“If New Hampshire moves, we move with them,” Nevada GOP Chairwoman Amy Tarkanian told POLITICO. With Arizona moving up the calendar, “This will ensure our first-in-the-West status,” Tarkanian said.

OK, the only problem here is that NH SoS Bill Gardner says that he will definitely schedule NH at least 7 days before any other contest (save Iowa), in accordance with state law.  That means at least a week before Nevada:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/nhs-gardner-indicates-granite-state.html

So this could be a bit of an issue.  Of course, one solution would be for NH to abandon its traditional Tuesday primary date, and go with a Saturday.  That way, Nevada can be the Saturday after NH, and NH would still be 7 days before NV.
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« Reply #251 on: September 26, 2011, 03:56:04 pm »
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New Jersey primary (finally) moves to June:

http://njtoday.net/2011/09/26/nj-presidential-primary-returns-to-june/

Calendar in the OP has been updated.
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« Reply #252 on: September 27, 2011, 03:51:40 pm »
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I know we've been over this, but when do you expect a firm date for the early states including Iowa and New Hampshire.  Thus, when do you expect a final, firm, set-in-stone calendar?
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« Reply #253 on: September 27, 2011, 03:57:48 pm »
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When all the other states have chosen their dates.
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« Reply #254 on: September 27, 2011, 05:20:28 pm »
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I know we've been over this, but when do you expect a firm date for the early states including Iowa and New Hampshire.  Thus, when do you expect a final, firm, set-in-stone calendar?
On October 1 Florida will be forced to make a decision.  The lawmakers will have to decide how much going 5th really matters.  The earliest date talked about (that I am aware of) is January 31; the latest being before February 28, the date of the Arizona and Michigan primaries.

That leaves Georgia and Missouri as the sticklers.  Since September 6, Missouri has been in a special session.  Missouri state law specifies that a special session may last no longer than 60 days, so they can potentially stall until November 4 before passing a bill (which would move the primary to March 6, i.e. "Super Tuesday", IIRC); if no bill passed Missouri's primary will stay on February 7.  The Georgian Secretary of State has until December 31 to decide, though I do not expect him to wait much longer after Missouri decides.

That means we will likely know the final calendar by November.  By next week, we should have a good idea of what shape that calendar will take.
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« Reply #255 on: September 27, 2011, 05:32:27 pm »
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Yelnoc's explanation is correct.  I'd just make one other point:

The Georgian Secretary of State has until December 31 to decide, though I do not expect him to wait much longer after Missouri decides.

He might decide before Missouri decides.  Especially if Florida goes for Jan. 31 or something.  That would make the question of whether Missouri goes with Feb. 7 or March 6 less relevant to Georgia's decision.

And while he can wait until December before making a final decision, he has to announce a date at least two months in advance of the primary.  In fact, I think every state has to announce a primary date at least two months or so in advance, in order to comply with recent federal legislation ensuring that overseas military absentee ballots are mailed out in time........but the same rule does not apply to caucuses.
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« Reply #256 on: September 28, 2011, 04:23:47 am »
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Washington GOP caucuses moved to March 3:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/washington-republicans-to-caucus-on.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.

We're now down to ten states whose primary/caucus states still seem to be in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Florida
Georgia
Alaska
North Dakota
Missouri
Wisconsin

The other 40 states + DC seem to have locked themselves into the current calendar.
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« Reply #257 on: September 28, 2011, 07:05:04 am »
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The Speaker of the House in Florida says that the primary date commission in Florida is likely to pick Jan. 31 as the primary date, in order to keep the state's primary early in the game (possibly 5th, after IA, NH, NV, and SC, though GA has the potential to jump earlier as well):

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/09/28/florida.primary/index.html

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"We are expecting to meet on Friday from 11 to 12, and I expect that they will pick January 31 as Florida's primary date," said Cannon, who helped select members of the nine-member commission.

This was also interesting:

Quote
RNC Chairman Reince Priebus and other GOP officials have been aggressively lobbying Florida Gov. Rick Scott and state legislative leaders to move the primary back to February 21 in a last-ditch effort to protect the integrity of the nominating calendar, sources told CNN.

But apparently, that pitch isn't working, as they don't want to go later than Missouri, Colorado, etc.  We'll presumably find out what they decide on Friday.

If Florida does go with Jan. 31, then it means that Iowa will end up in either the first or second week of January.
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« Reply #258 on: September 28, 2011, 07:18:00 am »
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North Dakota caucus to March 6 (Super Tuesday):

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/super-tuesday-caucuses-for-north-dakota.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Florida
Georgia
Alaska
Missouri
Wisconsin
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« Reply #259 on: September 28, 2011, 07:51:04 am »
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http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/09/28/florida.primary/index.html
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« Reply #260 on: September 28, 2011, 08:05:18 am »
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Already posted this:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128721.msg3036294#msg3036294
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« Reply #261 on: September 28, 2011, 03:09:40 pm »
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So it looks like IA will again be in the first week of January, just like 2008. Apparently if the parties really want to fix this thing they have to come up with stiffer penalties. What is amazing is that FL got the GOP convention and yet they are throwing the biggest wrench into the process.
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« Reply #262 on: September 28, 2011, 04:44:24 pm »
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Georgia SoS Kemp will apparently announce Georgia's primary date on Thursday at 11am:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/georgia-secretary-of-state-brian-kemp.html

The fact that he's announcing before Florida suggests that he's not going to leapfrog Florida.  Maybe it'll be mid-February, since that's wide open.

Meanwhile, IA/NH/NV/SC may have some kind of joint announcement on their primary dates on Thursday as well:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64613.html

Though I'd presume they don't make anything official until after Florida acts.  The calendar may well be pretty much settled (perhaps with a couple of exceptions, like Missouri) within a couple of days.
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« Reply #263 on: September 28, 2011, 05:06:21 pm »
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Do IA, NH, NV and SC lose any delegates if they are forced by FL to move from Feb to Jan?
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« Reply #264 on: September 29, 2011, 04:29:34 am »
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Do IA, NH, NV and SC lose any delegates if they are forced by FL to move from Feb to Jan?

Actually yes, at least for NH, NV, and SC.  If they move into January, then they lose half their delegates.  Iowa doesn't, because its caucus results aren't technically binding on delegate allocation (which puts it in the same boat as CO and MN).  Yes, the contest that leads off the primary calendar, and the one that gets the most national attention....actually isn't binding on delegate allocation.

In other news, the AP is reporting that Kemp is going to announce that the Georgia primary will be held on March 6 (Super Tuesday):

http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2011/09/28/georgia-presidential-primary-will-be-march-6-2012/

So after all that drama, they may go with the safe option after all.  Meanwhile, the RNC is still pressuring Florida not to go as early as Jan. 31, and Bill Gardner says there will be no announcement this week on the NH primary date:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64674.html

If Florida does go as early as Jan. 31 and Georgia goes on Super Tuesday, then there'll be a gaping hole in the middle of February with no primaries (assuming WI moves later, as expected).  Which I guess would benefit Arizona and Michigan, since they'll get the stage to themselves for a couple of weeks.
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« Reply #265 on: September 29, 2011, 04:31:12 am »
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Alaska district conventions will be held on Super Tuesday:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/alaska-gop-to-hold-march-6-district.html

The calendar in the OP has been updated.

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Florida
Georgia
Missouri
Wisconsin
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« Reply #266 on: September 29, 2011, 11:10:43 am »
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Yep, Georgia will go on Super Tuesday (March 6).

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/29/georgia-announces-primary-date/
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« Reply #267 on: September 29, 2011, 11:36:35 am »
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Missouri might have a caucus instead of a primary:

JEFFERSON CITY • The failure of legislation moving the state's presidential primary to March could result in Missouri returning to a caucus system.

A spokesman for the Missouri Republican Party would not discuss what party leadership is considering, but a conference call has been scheduled tonight for the Missouri Republican State Committee to discuss options.

States must report their planned primary dates to the national parties by Saturday, and with the Missouri Senate adjourned until next week, abandoning the February primary and moving to a March caucus might give the party a chance to stay in compliance with rules set up by the national Democratic and Republican parties.

Under current state law, a primary must be held in February. National party rules dictate that only Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada can hold presidential nominating contests before March 6. States that violate that rule have been threatened with the loss of half of their delegates to the national convention. Other penalties, such as fewer guest passes to the convention, have also been considered.

A bill moving the state's primary to March has become stalled in the state Senate, a victim of the stalemate over a massive economic development bill. In response to the Senate's failure to pass a bill, Missouri GOP Executive Director Lloyd Smith said the party would "explore all of our options, including those that do not require legislative action."

While state law mandates that a presidential primary be held, it does not specifically say that the results must be used to divvy out delegates to presidential candidates. It only says that the results of the primary must be reported to the state parties.

The responsibility of selecting delegates to the national convention is left up to the parties and is to be done at caucuses around the state, and ultimately, at the party's district and state conventions.

"Missouri law sets forth how the presidential primary will be conducted, but the process of selecting delegates for the national conventions is left to the political parties," said Laura Egerdal, communications director for the Secretary of State's office.

County caucuses are already scheduled for March, just as they always are during presidential election years. Participants at those caucuses will select delegates to congressional district and state conventions, where delegates will be chosen to attend the Republican and Democratic national conventions.

Traditionally, the results of the presidential primary have been used to allocate delegates at the caucuses. But Missouri law does not appear to mandate that, meaning Republican officials could -- in theory at least -- essentially turn the presidential primary into a straw poll and tell the Republican National Committee that the true presidential contest will be held at the Missouri Caucuses in March.

The party's legal options are currently being studied, according to members of the party's state committee.

State committee members would not comment on what the party planned to do to stay in compliance with the national party's rules. But several expressed support for a switch to the caucus system, which Missouri has used previously over the years to vote for president.

Read more: http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/political-fix/article_e9248c7c-ea9e-11e0-9fc4-0019bb30f31a.html#ixzz1ZMOTGMHt
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« Reply #268 on: September 29, 2011, 11:44:19 am »
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So it looks like IA will again be in the first week of January, just like 2008. Apparently if the parties really want to fix this thing they have to come up with stiffer penalties. What is amazing is that FL got the GOP convention and yet they are throwing the biggest wrench into the process.

Is there any way they could still take the convention away from FL? (I know next to nothing about these things, as you can see). Also, on the whole the BP Gulf disaster seems to have faded from the public mind. Makes one wonder whether they couldn't have done better than that for a convention spot.
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« Reply #269 on: September 29, 2011, 04:10:39 pm »
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I've now updated the calendar in the OP to reflect this.

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Florida
Missouri
Wisconsin

Those are the only seven left to decide.  The ball is really in Florida's court now.  Can the RNC talk them into going later than Jan. 31?  If Missouri promises to switch from a February primary to a March caucus, will that be good enough to convince Florida to go in late February, or will they refuse to go later than CO, MN, and ME caucuses?
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« Reply #270 on: September 29, 2011, 07:18:13 pm »
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Missouri is going with caucuses. From the KY3 TV Website

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JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. -- After Gov. Jay Nixon vetoed the elections bill and the General Assembly failed to achieve final passage of the presidential primary bill prior to Oct. 1, the Missouri Republican State Committee held an emergency meeting on Thursday to ensure our state is in compliance with the rules of the Republican Party.  During this meeting, the committee voted unanimously to amend our call to convention and go to a caucus system for the 2012 election.


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« Reply #271 on: September 29, 2011, 07:29:38 pm »
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Missouri caucuses will be on March 17.
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« Reply #272 on: September 29, 2011, 07:30:58 pm »
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The term "caucus" has always amused me for some reason.
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« Reply #273 on: September 29, 2011, 07:31:55 pm »
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Missouri caucuses will be on March 17.
Source?
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« Reply #274 on: September 29, 2011, 07:34:18 pm »
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Missouri caucuses will be on March 17.
Source?

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/missouri-republicans-will-caucus-on.html
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