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Author Topic: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread  (Read 60797 times)
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #275 on: September 29, 2011, 09:08:04 pm »
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I've updated the calendar in the OP to reflect this.  The primary on Feb. 7 still exists, but won't award any delegates.  The delegate allocation will be based on the March 17 caucus.
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« Reply #276 on: September 30, 2011, 12:45:18 am »
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I've updated the calendar in the OP to reflect this.  The primary on Feb. 7 still exists, but won't award any delegates.  The delegate allocation will be based on the March 17 caucus.

Why are they holding the meaningless primary anyway ? It's a waste of money and organisation then. They should just scrap it.
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« Reply #277 on: September 30, 2011, 01:37:23 am »
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I've updated the calendar in the OP to reflect this.  The primary on Feb. 7 still exists, but won't award any delegates.  The delegate allocation will be based on the March 17 caucus.

Why are they holding the meaningless primary anyway ? It's a waste of money and organisation then. They should just scrap it.

Scrapping it requires the legislature to actually pass a bill that would scrap it, and have the governor sign it.  But all legislative business is basically deadlocked at the moment, as Nixon is at an impasse with the legislature over other issues.  Most of the legislature is at home right now, and they aren't meeting in the capitol on a day-to-day basis.  If there's a breakthrough in negotiations with Nixon, they'll come back to the capitol and start voting on these things again.  But otherwise they're just going to run out the clock on the special session.

So the primary is just kind of a casualty of the legislative impasse.  It's not an important enough issue to motivate the legislature to come back to the capital from their home districts just to kill the primary.

EDIT: I wonder if any of the candidates will actually put their names on the ballot in the meaningless primary.  Filing deadline is in November, and there's a filing fee, but I'm not sure how much it costs.  Maybe the legislature will come back in January and kill the primary then, and refund everyone's money.

If any of you meet the constitutional requirements to serve as POTUS by next year, and you want to run a presidential campaign restricted to the non-binding primary in Missouri, you should file to put your name on the ballot.  If Romney, Perry, Bachmann et al don't put their names on the ballot, you might win!  Wink
« Last Edit: September 30, 2011, 01:49:11 am by Mr. Morden »Logged

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« Reply #278 on: September 30, 2011, 01:46:07 am »
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I've updated the calendar in the OP to reflect this.  The primary on Feb. 7 still exists, but won't award any delegates.  The delegate allocation will be based on the March 17 caucus.

Why are they holding the meaningless primary anyway ? It's a waste of money and organisation then. They should just scrap it.

Scrapping it requires the legislature to actually pass a bill that would scrap it, and have the governor sign it.  But all legislative business is basically deadlocked at the moment, as Nixon is at an impasse with the legislature over other issues.  Most of the legislature is at home right now, and they aren't meeting in the capitol on a day-to-day basis.  If there's a breakthrough in negotiations with Nixon, they'll come back to the capitol and start voting on these things again.  But otherwise they're just going to run out the clock on the special session.

So the primary is just kind of a casualty of the legislative impasse.  It's not an important enough issue to motivate the legislature to come back to the capital from their home districts just to kill the primary.

Cann they kill the primary later ?

It's not like holding such a primary election is cheap and these lawmakers are probably not interested in wasting millions of taxpayer money ahead of the important 2012 election.
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« Reply #279 on: September 30, 2011, 01:51:36 am »
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Cann they kill the primary later ?

It's not like holding such a primary election is cheap and these lawmakers are probably not interested in wasting millions of taxpayer money ahead of the important 2012 election.

I was editing my post when you posted this message.  I would assume they can come back in January and kill the primary then.  Of course, the filing deadline is in November, so they'd have to refund everyone's money.

Also, it just occurred to me that states often combine presidential primaries with either state primaries or other local elections.  I have no idea if they're doing that in Missouri or not.  It's possible that the primary is being combined with other elections that'll have to happen anyway.
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« Reply #280 on: September 30, 2011, 10:17:22 am »
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Can any of you see the Florida primary date selection committee meeting live stream here?

http://thefloridachannel.org/

I'm not on a computer where I'm able to watch live video at the moment.
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« Reply #281 on: September 30, 2011, 11:37:41 am »
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Florida primary officially set to Jan. 31, which is simply a reversion back to when it was originally scheduled, before they set up the special primary calendar panel:

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/florida-presidential-primary-will-be-jan-31-2012/1194512

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Wisconsin

So we basically know the primary calendar now.  Just a few details remain.  Will Wisconsin move to April 3?  Probably, but not official yet.  IA, NH, NV, and SC will presumably all vote in January now (with Iowa some time in early January), but what will the exact dates be?  Will NV and SC go on the same day?  Will NV manage to go just a few days after NH, as they'd hoped to?

The interesting thing about the new calendar is that if Wisconsin does indeed move to April, then there's this big 3 week gap in February with no primaries or caucuses.  My guess is that the gap will probably mean that the early states will be perhaps a bit less important than in recent election cycles.  Because a 3 week gap is long enough that there's time for the campaign to more or less reset.  Momentum from the early states will have time to dissipate.

But maybe it'll be the reverse.  Who knows?  I'm just guessing here.
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« Reply #282 on: September 30, 2011, 12:20:36 pm »
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Gov. Walker just signed the primary bill:

MADISON (AP) - Gov. Scott Walker has signed the bill that moves Wisconsin's presidential primary from late February to the first Tuesday in April.

Wisconsin's primary next year would be April 3, the same day as the spring election.

It's part of a move by the national Democratic and Republican parties to avoid front-loading state primaries.

Florida officials also decided Friday to move their presidential primary to Jan. 31, which is expected to prompt other states to move up their primary and caucus dates.

Walker's spokesman Cullen Werwie had no comment on Florida's move Friday.

Currently, Iowa is scheduled to hold its caucuses Feb. 6, followed by the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 14, the Nevada caucus on Feb. 18, the South Carolina primary on Feb. 28 and Super Tuesday March 6.

http://www.leadertelegram.com/news/daily_updates/article_d6971e50-eb82-11e0-a690-001cc4c002e0.html
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« Reply #283 on: September 30, 2011, 02:21:57 pm »
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With every state except IA, NH, NV and SC now having settled on their final date, it very much looks like Romney is the clear favorite ahead of the March Super Tuesday.

IA: He probably won't win it, but ARGGGHGHHHH has him leading there right now !
NH: Should be an easy Romney win
NV: Should be an easy Romney win
SC: Perry was favored, but now he's down and tied with Romney again
FL: Also good Romney territory because of the many old people
CO: Should be a Romney win
MN: Could be a Romney win, if he wins FL before that and Bachmann collapses further
ME: Easy Romney
AZ: Probably Romney, because Perry's immigration policy is DOA and because of the olds
MI: Easy Romney
WA: Easy Romney
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« Reply #284 on: September 30, 2011, 02:41:43 pm »
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The bump of Florida should pave the way for Romney.
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« Reply #285 on: September 30, 2011, 06:40:35 pm »
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Nevada may keep it's caucus in February.

From the Nevada News Bureau. (I would link if allowed)

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State GOP chair Amy Tarkanian confirmed a short while ago that although discussions are ongoing, she is leaning towards holding Nevada’s presidential caucuses the first week of February. Tarkanian said she is just not sure she’s willing to be penalized and lose half the state’s delegates by scheduling prior to February 1, which is what Republican National Committee rules would require.


That would probably put them 5th, after IA, NH, SC and FL.
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« Reply #286 on: September 30, 2011, 09:06:08 pm »
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With every state except IA, NH, NV and SC now having settled on their final date, it very much looks like Romney is the clear favorite ahead of the March Super Tuesday.

IA: He probably won't win it, but ARGGGHGHHHH has him leading there right now !
NH: Should be an easy Romney win
NV: Should be an easy Romney win
SC: Perry was favored, but now he's down and tied with Romney again
FL: Also good Romney territory because of the many old people
CO: Should be a Romney win
MN: Could be a Romney win, if he wins FL before that and Bachmann collapses further
ME: Easy Romney
AZ: Probably Romney, because Perry's immigration policy is DOA and because of the olds
MI: Easy Romney
WA: Easy Romney

Perry (and his allies) will have as much or more money than Romney and better Tea Party support. I don't see him losing very many caucus states. And the Republican parties in Colorado and Washington are both pretty conservative; hardly easy Romney wins.
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« Reply #287 on: September 30, 2011, 09:17:47 pm »
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Gov. Walker just signed the primary bill:

MADISON (AP) - Gov. Scott Walker has signed the bill that moves Wisconsin's presidential primary from late February to the first Tuesday in April.

Wisconsin's primary next year would be April 3, the same day as the spring election.


I've updated the calendar in the OP to include this.

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina

Sounds like Nevada may decide on whether to go before or after Florida by the Saturday deadline.  Nevada GOP is holding an emergency meeting to discuss the issue.

IA, NH, and SC are expected to miss the deadline, and will probably not announce their dates until next week, at the earliest.
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« Reply #288 on: September 30, 2011, 11:35:49 pm »
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Nevada caucus will probably be Feb. 4 (after Florida, but before Colorado and Minnesota):

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64879.html

By staying in February, Nevada will avoid any delegate penalties.  The final decision on the caucus date will be voted on Saturday night.

Assuming they do that, then I would guess that Iowa will end up in the second week of January, NH in the third week of January, and South Carolina in the fourth week of January, followed by Florida on Jan. 31.

Most likely date for Iowa would then be Jan. 10.
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« Reply #289 on: October 01, 2011, 12:01:40 am »
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I hope we get a definitive calendar soon.  I want to start planning my primary nights election coverage. Smiley
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« Reply #290 on: October 01, 2011, 11:35:01 pm »
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As previously mentioned, as of yesterday it looked like the Nevada GOP was leaning towards scheduling their caucus in February, after Florida.  But tonight, the party voted to keep their current scheduling rule intact, which tethers the caucus date to the date of the NH primary:

http://www.rgj.com/article/20111001/NEWS19/110010335/Nevada-GOP-votes-move-presidential-caucus-January?odyssey=nav%7Chead

They plan to hold the caucus on the Saturday after the NH primary.  This sets up a confrontation with NH, as NH 1) historically votes on a Tuesday, and 2) has a state law that requires them to vote at least seven days before any other primary or caucus (except Iowa).

So something has to give.  Either NH has to vote on a Saturday, or they have to allow NV to vote just four days after them, or NV has to give up on going on the Saturday after NH.

Once we know how that is resolved, we'll know what the calendar looks like.
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« Reply #291 on: October 02, 2011, 12:49:20 am »
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As previously mentioned, as of yesterday it looked like the Nevada GOP was leaning towards scheduling their caucus in February, after Florida.  But tonight, the party voted to keep their current scheduling rule intact, which tethers the caucus date to the date of the NH primary:

http://www.rgj.com/article/20111001/NEWS19/110010335/Nevada-GOP-votes-move-presidential-caucus-January?odyssey=nav%7Chead

They plan to hold the caucus on the Saturday after the NH primary.  This sets up a confrontation with NH, as NH 1) historically votes on a Tuesday, and 2) has a state law that requires them to vote at least seven days before any other primary or caucus (except Iowa).

So something has to give.  Either NH has to vote on a Saturday, or they have to allow NV to vote just four days after them, or NV has to give up on going on the Saturday after NH.

Once we know how that is resolved, we'll know what the calendar looks like.


NH shouldn't act like a pussy, as everyone knows that they are much more important than NV.

I would suggest Jan. 10 for Iowa, Jan. 17 for NH, Jan. 21 for NV (Saturday) and Jan. 24 for SC.
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« Reply #292 on: October 02, 2011, 07:49:49 am »
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As previously mentioned, as of yesterday it looked like the Nevada GOP was leaning towards scheduling their caucus in February, after Florida.  But tonight, the party voted to keep their current scheduling rule intact, which tethers the caucus date to the date of the NH primary:

http://www.rgj.com/article/20111001/NEWS19/110010335/Nevada-GOP-votes-move-presidential-caucus-January?odyssey=nav%7Chead

They plan to hold the caucus on the Saturday after the NH primary.  This sets up a confrontation with NH, as NH 1) historically votes on a Tuesday, and 2) has a state law that requires them to vote at least seven days before any other primary or caucus (except Iowa).

So something has to give.  Either NH has to vote on a Saturday, or they have to allow NV to vote just four days after them, or NV has to give up on going on the Saturday after NH.

Once we know how that is resolved, we'll know what the calendar looks like.


NH shouldn't act like a pussy, as everyone knows that they are much more important than NV.

I would suggest Jan. 10 for Iowa, Jan. 17 for NH, Jan. 21 for NV (Saturday) and Jan. 24 for SC.

That wouldn't bode too well for SC in my opinion with Florida right behind them at January 31.  I would move the earlier states up to put Iowa on January 3, New Hampshire on on January 10, Nevada on January 14, and South Carolina on January 24.  The reason for this is, if Nevada is going to tether themselves to New Hampshire, they obviously don't need or even care about having time for the candidates to shift out west and have several days to campaign in that state alone.  South Carolina has not made any such demands, to my knowledge, and therefore still should get at least a week where candidates can focus on the Palmetto State before transitioning two states to the south to Florida.

I know this puts Iowa campaigning early in December, but they are going to do that anyway, and in the political world, that's not as critical as giving the early states time to have the candidates all to themselves.
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« Reply #293 on: October 02, 2011, 10:27:07 pm »
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South Carolina will reveal their primary date at 11am Monday:

http://www.thestate.com/2011/10/02/1994582/sc-gop-to-reveal-primary-date.html

That's the easy part.  The remaining part of the calendar is how things shake out between NH and NV.  That part could very well take a few weeks.
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« Reply #294 on: October 03, 2011, 09:41:48 am »
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CNN says they have two sources telling them that South Carolina is going to opt for Jan. 21, 10 days before Florida:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/03/south-carolina-to-hold-primary-on-january-21/

I'll hold off on changing the calendar in the OP until there's an official announcement from SC (which should come within the hour).

If true, then this pretty much guarantees that Iowa will be in the first week of January (probably Jan. 3, 4, or 5).  NH would likely be Jan. 10.  I don't know about NV.  Possibly the same day as SC again now.  I assume that NV will ultimately blink in their standoff with NH.

EDIT: It's official.  South Carolina primary to Jan. 21:

http://www.abcnews4.com/story/15599231/south-carolina-gop-chair-expected-to-announce-new-primary-date-following-floridas-change

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
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« Reply #295 on: October 04, 2011, 02:48:23 am »
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Now it looks like New Hampshire is waiting for NV's GOP meeting at the end of October.

If Nevada sets their date, NH will set theirs and then Iowa.

So we should have the final calendar in about a month.
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« Reply #296 on: October 04, 2011, 07:10:05 am »
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Nevada GOP chairwoman Amy Tarkanian says that the state party intends to schedule the caucus *before* SC on Jan. 21:

http://www.lvrj.com/news/caucuses-sometime-before-jan-21-gop-leader-says-131025468.html

If Nevada goes on Sat, Jan. 14, then NH will likely not be content to go on Tuesday the 10th, because their state law says that they need the 7 day window.  They would likely move to the first week of January, which could push Iowa into December.  Also, both Saturday Jan. 7 and Saturday Jan. 14 will have NFL playoff games during the late afternoon and evening.  Not the best time to be competing for national attention.

If Nevada is willing to go on a day other than a Saturday (say, Tuesday, Jan. 17), then this could be resolved easily.  But the article says "Nevada GOP leaders believe holding the caucuses on a weekend will boost turnout and excitement for the meetings as Republicans pick their presidential favorites."

Again, at least one out of the three of Iowa, NH, and Nevada is going to have to compromise in some way on the timing of their primary or caucus.  If they all insist on going before SC and on having "breathing room" between them and the other states, then Iowa will be pushed into December.
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« Reply #297 on: October 04, 2011, 05:00:05 pm »
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WA isn't easy Romney at all; the caucus is pretty right-wing. Look at the 2008 results; Huckabee nearly won (though McCain did better in the primary)
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« Reply #298 on: October 05, 2011, 09:09:33 pm »
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Supposedly Nevada has indeed picked the 14th- not confirmed yet though.
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« Reply #299 on: October 05, 2011, 09:13:12 pm »
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Supposedly Nevada has indeed picked the 14th- not confirmed yet though.

John Ralston, top political reporter in the state, tweeted that Nevada is indeed going on the 14th.

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