The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread

[Bull Moose Base]

Do you mean Super March Tuesday?  I think going 2/7 wouldn't change South Carolina etc's plans.  Though it'd diminish Florida's status a bit and they'd probably still prefer it to seeing FL go 1/31.  Btw, if you're getting hit with penalties regardless, why would any state go in Feb instead of Jan?

[Likely Voter]

i agree, FL is throwing a wrench into this whole thing and they are thumbing their noses at the RNC, so why should they also be awarded with the convention.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Indiana should move it's Presidential Primary to one of those Super Tuesday dates. It's kinda silly to have a primary so late that by the time it comes around the nomination is already clinched.

[Mr. Morden]

Merged into the primary calendar thread.

i agree, FL is throwing a wrench into this whole thing and they are thumbing their noses at the RNC, so why should they also be awarded with the convention.

It's not just Florida though.  There are several other states that will hold early primaries as well, inviting RNC sanctions.  Florida is just the most extreme case at the moment.

Again, the DNC/RNC plan for moving the start of primary season a month later was never going to work.  As long as the individual states are running and paying for their own primaries, there is going to be primary calendar "chaos".  If the RNC wants later primaries, they should pay for the primaries themselves.

[jimrtex]

Texas is likely to move its primary to April to avoid the penalty for not using proportional delegate allocation.

[Mr. Morden]

Texas is likely to move its primary to April to avoid the penalty for not using proportional delegate allocation.

Indeed, it's being talked about.  But have any bills to do that actually been put forward on this in the legislature yet?

Anyway, a lot of activity going on in state legislatures at the moment to move some of the February primaries later, to avoid sanctions.  In Maryland, Oklahoma, and DC, legislatures have passed bills to move the respective primaries later, and those bills are now awaiting the signature of the governor (or mayor, in the case of DC).

But the most interesting activity is in the states that have gone rogue.  States that have primaries in January/February, and want to keep them there, or move even earlier: Florida, Georgia, Michigan, and Missouri.  (Well, Arizona and Minnesota too, but there's nothing new to report there.)

Florida

The Florida Speaker of the House has indicated that he will introduce legislation to set up a 10 person committee (3 people each appointed by the governor and both houses of the legislature, plus the Secretary of State in a non-voting role), that would have the power to set the state's primary whenever they want, between the first Tuesday in January and the first Tuesday in March:

link

So yes, if Florida gets too annoyed by the RNC harrassing it, they could move their primary even *earlier*, bumping Iowa and NH into December.  Florida's legislative session ends on May 6, but if they vote to create this committee, the committee would be able to defer the choice of a primary date until as late as October.

Georgia

Georgia is currently scheduled for Feb. 7th, which leaves them open to the 50% delegate penalty.  However, Georgia wants to go early anyway.  The House has passed a bill that would grant the Secretary of State (a Republican, at present) the power to decide the primary date on his own, but that hasn't been passed by the Senate, and the last day of the Georgia legislature's 2011 session is *today*.  So if it doesn't pass today, Georgia will stick with a Feb. 7th primary.

Michigan

Michigan's primary is Feb. 28th, which breaks national party rules.  But Michigan has no intention of moving later.  They may end up moving *earlier*.  Earlier this week, a bill was introduced to move the primary up to Jan. 31st, the same day as Florida:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/04/bill-introduced-in-michigan-house-to.html

We'll have to wait and see what happens to that bill.  Michigan's legislature is in session all year, so this controversy could go well into the fall.

Missouri

Missouri's primary is scheduled for Feb. 7th.  Again, in violation of national party rules.  The House passed a bill to move the primary back to March 6th.  But the Senate passed a bill that would anchor the primary to NH, and hold it one week after NH, whenever NH votes.  Not clear what's going to happen.  There's a good chance that the legislature will be deadlocked, and the primary will stay on Feb. 7th.  The legislature adjourns on May 30th.

[Yelnoc]

Wow.  What if Florida, Georgia, and Michigan all end up on January 31?

[Mr. Morden]

Wow.  What if Florida, Georgia, and Michigan all end up on January 31?

That's a very real possibility now that the Georgia Senate has indeed passed the bill that would give the state's Secretary of State the power to set the primary whenever he likes, going as early as Jan. 31 if he wants:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/04/georgia-senate-passes-presidential.html

The bill has now passed both houses of the legislature, and goes to Gov. Deal to sign.

In Missouri, things have gotten more crazy, with the relevant committee in the House approving a bill that would move Missouri's primary all the way up to November 2011(!):

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/04/did-missouri-house-up-ante-on-state.html

I'm nor sure that version is really going to pass the full House.  But it's looking more likely that either the legislature will deadlock, or they'll pass an early primary bill that Nixon will veto, and Missouri will still have an early primary on Feb. 7th, which is the status quo.

[jimrtex]

Texas is likely to move its primary to April to avoid the penalty for not using proportional delegate allocation.

Indeed, it's being talked about.  But have any bills to do that actually been put forward on this in the legislature yet?

SB 100, HB 111, and HB 3585 are all intended to implement the Federal MOVE act which requires a 45-day mail out period for military voters for all federal elections.  This causes a problem in Texas, because of the time between the primary and the primary runoff, because Texas combines the statewide primary and presidential primary, and because of the filing deadline.

If Texas leaves the primary in March, the filing deadline would have to be moved into December to provide enough time for ballots to be prepared and mailed out in mid-January.  A December filing deadline conflicts with a constitutional provision that requires county office holders to resign if they file for another office in the middle of the term.  A December filing deadline is more than a year before the end of the term.  So let's say that you are in a 3rd year of a 4-year term as county commissioner.  You decide to run for county judge in November 2012.  You have just resigned the last year of your county commissioner term.  It doesn't make a very good platform to have quit the last elected position.

So if they change the filing deadline, they have to also change the constitution, which requires a vote of the people, who might vote NO.  Since the election on the amendment would be in November 2011 there is a risk factor.

If they keep the March primary, the runoff will have to be moved from early April to mid-to-late May, where it steps on local elections.  So they have to sort of fudge this.  In Texas, primaries are conducted by the political parties - though they typically receive a lot of assistance from the counties, including use of voting machines, and the counties conduct early voting.  But they can't be combined with nonpartisan local elections.  So what they have done is told cities and school districts that want to keep a May 2012 election, they may have to run the election themselves, and might not have any voting equipment from the county.  With early voting, you will have two overlapping elections.

If they move the primary to April, they can keep a January filing deadline, and have a runoff in June.  There is still a conflict with the local elections, but perhaps a bit less.

The original versions of SB 100, HB 111, and HB 3585 have no calendar changes, but are being amended in committee.  SB 100 has passed the senate with a March primary, May runoff, and December filing deadline.

[bgwah]

Update: it's official. Washington has canceled its presidential primary. Washington will definitely be a top target for Paul and whoever becomes the religious right candidate.

[Yelnoc]

So did the bill with Georgia go through?

[Mr. Morden]

Update: it's official. Washington has canceled its presidential primary. Washington will definitely be a top target for Paul and whoever becomes the religious right candidate.

I don't think it is official.  It's been passed by both houses of the legislature, but I don't think the bill has been signed by the governor yet (though it presumably will be).  I'll update the calendar in the OP once the bill is signed.

[Mr. Morden]

So did the bill with Georgia go through?

Like I said here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128721.msg2871890#msg2871890

"The bill has now passed both houses of the legislature, and goes to Gov. Deal to sign."

That's where we're at right now.  Deal hasn't signed it yet, but everyone expects that he will.  Just like we have bills in DC, MD, OK, and WA to move or cancel primaries that have been passed by the respectively legislatures but aren't yet signed by the governor (or mayor in the case of DC).

[Yelnoc]

So did the bill with Georgia go through?

Like I said here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128721.msg2871890#msg2871890

"The bill has now passed both houses of the legislature, and goes to Gov. Deal to sign."

That's where we're at right now.  Deal hasn't signed it yet, but everyone expects that he will.  Just like we have bills in DC, MD, OK, and WA to move or cancel primaries that have been passed by the respectively legislatures but aren't yet signed by the governor (or mayor in the case of DC).

Oh, sorry.  I missed that.

This will be a pretty neat primary season they way the schedule is shaping up.  It looks like we might have several smaller super-Tuesday like primaries after IA, NH, and SC.

[California8429]

So did the bill with Georgia go through?

Like I said here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128721.msg2871890#msg2871890

"The bill has now passed both houses of the legislature, and goes to Gov. Deal to sign."

That's where we're at right now.  Deal hasn't signed it yet, but everyone expects that he will.  Just like we have bills in DC, MD, OK, and WA to move or cancel primaries that have been passed by the respectively legislatures but aren't yet signed by the governor (or mayor in the case of DC).

Oh, sorry.  I missed that.

This will be a pretty neat primary season they way the schedule is shaping up.  It looks like we might have several smaller super-Tuesday like primaries after IA, NH, and SC.

That's whay I'm hoping for, it makes the season more fun then have the early states and 20 states on super tuesday. Mini super Tuesdays allow underdogs to make headway and such, and it adds drama

[Mr. Morden]

An update on several bills to move or cancel primaries.  In the following states, you have a bill that's been passed by both houses of the legislature, and the move would become official with the signature of the governor (or mayor in the case of DC):

DC (bill would move primary to April 3)
Maryland (bill would move primary to April 3)
Georgia (bill would give the Secretary of State the power to set the primary when he likes)
Oklahoma (bill would move the primary to March 6)
Tennessee (bill would move the primary to March 6)
Washington (bill would cancel the primary, so that delegates for both parties would be allocated by caucus)

As I said, none of those moves is official yet, because the governor (or mayor in the case of DC) still has to sign the bill.  But it's expected to be signed all six of these cases.

There are also of course, efforts to move to later primaries in other February states, like California and New Jersey, but those bills haven't yet passed both houses of the legislature.

[Mr. Morden]

DC has officially moved its primary to April 3:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/dc-to-april-3.html

and I've updated the calendar in the OP.

Also, the Arizona legislature adjourned for the year, and did not move the primary.  That means the primary is locked into February, and Arizona will get hit by the 50% delegate penalty unless the RNC gives them a waiver.  The primary is tentatively scheduled for Feb. 28, but the governor has the power to move it to Feb. 7 if she wishes.

[Mr. Morden]

Mary Fallin signs the bill in Oklahoma, which moves the primary to March 6th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/oklahoma-to-march-6.html

I've updated the calendar in the OP.

[Mr. Morden]

Both houses of the Florida legislature have passed the bill that would turn over the power to set the primary date to a "bipartisan" commission.  It now goes to Gov. Scott for his signature:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/florida-senate-passes-house-primary.html

I put "bipartisan" in scare quotes because the commission would be appointed by the GOP-majority legislature and the Republican governor, so it'll presumably have a Republican majority.  It's expected that the commission would follow the wishes of state Republicans, and schedule the primary for an early date.  Possibly Jan. 31, but possibly some time in February, if the existing February primary states end up moving later.

[Mr. Morden]

Haslam signs the bill which moves Tennessee to March 6th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/tennessee-presidential-primary-to-march.html

I've updated the OP to reflect the revised calendar.

[jimrtex]

The Texas Defense and Veterans Affairs Committee has supposedly reported a version of SB 100 that would move the date to April.

[Mr. Morden]

Maryland officially moves to April 3:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/maryland-presidential-primary-to-april.html

Missouri is the one to watch right now.  The legislature adjourns for the year on Friday, and the primary is still scheduled for Feb. 7.  The House has passed several bills that would move the primary to a later date, but the Senate won't pass them.  The GOP actually controls both houses of the legislature.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Maryland officially moves to April 3:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/maryland-presidential-primary-to-april.html

Missouri is the one to watch right now.  The legislature adjourns for the year on Friday, and the primary is still scheduled for Feb. 7.  The House has passed several bills that would move the primary to a later date, but the Senate won't pass them.  The GOP actually controls both houses of the legislature.

Why this discord between the houses?

[Mr. Morden]

Maryland officially moves to April 3:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/maryland-presidential-primary-to-april.html

Missouri is the one to watch right now.  The legislature adjourns for the year on Friday, and the primary is still scheduled for Feb. 7.  The House has passed several bills that would move the primary to a later date, but the Senate won't pass them.  The GOP actually controls both houses of the legislature.

Why this discord between the houses?

A narrow majority in the state senate seem to be of the school of thought that says the primary system imposed by the national parties is unfair, and Missouri shouldn't cooperate with it.  They should just go ahead with an early primary, and to heck with what the national parties say.  In the house, I guess they disagree.

[Mr. Morden]

Deal signs the bill in Georgia that allows the Secretary of State to set the primary date:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/governor-deal-signs-presidential.html

There'd been some earlier speculation that he might go for a January primary, but apparently there's now the suggestion that he might pick April.  In which case, this bill was kind of pointless.  The legislature might as well have just set the date for April itself.

Gregoire signs the bill that cancel's Washington's primary:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/gregoires-signature-cancels-2012.html

I've updated the OP, though Washington still has GOP caucuses tentatively scheduled for February.

Also, the Missouri senate finally relented, and passed a bill that would move the primary to March, which has now been passed by both houses:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/missouri-house-passes-conference.html

The bill now goes to Gov. Nixon, who's expected to sign it.

There still remains an outside chance that Arizona, Florida, Michigan, and Minnesota will be the only states to defy the national parties and hold January/February primaries/caucuses when they're not supposed to.  All the other states still might end up moving later.  Of course, even if it's just those four, that's still enough to make Iowa and New Hampshire hold their contests in January.