The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread

[Mr. Morden]

Both houses of the Wisconsin legislature have now passed the bill that would move the primary to April:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/wisconsin-assembly-concurs-with-senate.html

The bill now goes to Gov. Walker, and he's expected to sign it.

In Missouri, as you may recall, the legislature passed legislation to move the primary to March, but it included other provisions that Gov. Nixon didn't like, so he vetoed it, and asked the legislature to send him a clean bill.  Now the legislature is in special session, and the House has passed a new bill to move the primary to March.  The bill is making its way through the Senate:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/march-presidential-primary-bill-from.html

The only problem is that this still isn't a clean bill.  The bill also increases the filing fee for presidential candidates.  I would presume that that's a minor enough issue that Nixon will sign the bill anyway, but it's not certain.

[Mr. Morden]

In Missouri, things are looking a bit more uncertain re: the possibility of moving the primary later.

As I said yesterday, Nixon vetoed the earlier bill that would have moved the primary to March.  He said wanted a clean bill that doesn't include extraneous items.  The House has now passed a bill that would move the primary to March (but also increases the filing fee for candidates).  The Senate is now taking up the bill, but there's some resistance to passing it:

http://ozarksfirst.com/fulltext?nxd_id=522007

You must be logged in to read this quote.

One Republican state senator now says that he's going to offer an amendment that would abolish the primary altogether and replace it with a caucus (also to be held on Feb. 7th, though it's not clear that the state has the constitutional authority to tell the parties when to hold caucuses, should they eliminate the primary).  This won't be voted on until at least Wednesday of next week.

It's not clear that this would pass, or if they'll come up with a version that the House agrees to, or that Nixon will agree to sign.  If they can't pass anything, then the status quo will remain, which is the Missouri primary being held on Feb. 7th.

It's also quite possible now that this uncertainty will drag on beyond Oct. 1, when Florida has to announce its primary date.  Florida says they want to go before every state except IA/NH/NV/SC.  As has already been mentioned here, that may be a problem, since they won't necessarily know when Georgia's primary will be held when they have to make a decision.  What if they also don't know when Missouri will vote either?  Will Florida then go pre-Feb. 7th just in case?

[Mr. Morden]

Maine caucuses will be held from Feb. 4 to Feb. 11:

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2011/09/16/20110916republican-presidential-primaries-rogue-states-threaten-calendar-politico.html

I've updated the calendar in the OP.

In other news, NH SoS Bill Gardner says that NH will not accept going less than 7 days before Nevada, meaning that the original DNC calendar was never going to happen anyway:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/nhs-gardner-indicates-granite-state.html

The nine members of the commission in Florida to pick the primary date have been named.  There are six Republicans and three Dems.  They will meet once on Sept. 23, and then again on Sept. 30 (and presumably pick a date at the latter meeting, since they have to decide by Oct. 1):

http://www.newsserviceflorida.com/cgi/as_web.exe?rev2011+D+7698156

And finally, it looks like Michigan has dropped the idea of moving the primary later than Feb. 28.  They'll keep it on Feb. 28, but the legislature is working on a bill that would change the primary from open to closed:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/michigan-senate-passes-february-28.html

So now we basically know for sure that Arizona and Michigan will stick with Feb. 28, and we more or less know the contours of the calendar after Feb. 28.  It's the calendar *before* Feb. 28 that remains a big mess.

[Tender Branson]

And finally, it looks like Michigan has dropped the idea of moving the primary later than Feb. 28.  They'll keep it on Feb. 28, but the legislature is working on a bill that would change the primary from open to closed:

Bad news for Romney I guess, because Independents would certainly "fatten up" Romney's margin over Perry in MI. But if it's only Republicans, it's more uncertain, especially after SC.

[Marston]

And finally, it looks like Michigan has dropped the idea of moving the primary later than Feb. 28.  They'll keep it on Feb. 28, but the legislature is working on a bill that would change the primary from open to closed:

Bad news for Romney I guess, because Independents would certainly "fatten up" Romney's margin over Perry in MI. But if it's only Republicans, it's more uncertain, especially after SC.

Eh, you just have to verbally declare yourself a Republican, if I remember correctly. I, as a registered Democrat, can vote in the closed primary by just lying about my affiliation to the poll workers. They won't know the difference.

[Mr. Morden]

Quick update on Missouri: There are still two different options that would involve moving the primary to March, following Nixon's veto of the earlier legislation.  One is for the legislature to override his veto.  The other is for them to pass a new bill with different provisions so that Nixon will sign it.  It looks like this Friday is the deadline for them to override the veto, so they'd have to move quickly:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/additional-notes-on-missouri.html

If they don't do that, then they'll have to pass a new bill in the special session, though as previously mentioned, it's not clear whether that'll happen or not.  It's also unclear how long the special session will last.  Conceivably, they could wrap things up this week, though going into next week is certainly possible.  It's likely that we'll have an answer on what's happening with Missouri by the end of next week, when Florida has to decide on its primary date.

[Mr. Morden]

The 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Calendar may be largely decided in Jefferson City, Missouri this Friday.

The state legislature will reconvene, to take up the presidential primary bill again, and perhaps strike some kind of last minute deal:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/missouri-senate-adjourns-presidential.html

There's a good chance that that will be the last day of the legislature's special session (though it might continue into next week), so they'll probably stay well into the night to get everything done.  In all likelihood, we'll soon know whether Missouri is sticking with a Feb. 7 primary or moving to March 6 (or, the least likely option.....cancel the primary altogether, and have it replaced with caucuses).

If the primary stays on Feb. 7th, then Florida will almost certainly vote on Jan. 31, which means Iowa will happen in early January.

Whereas if Missouri moves to March, then there's at least a chance (assuming other states move later, as expected) that Florida (and maybe Georgia) hold their primaries in mid-February, which means that we might get the Iowa caucuses as late as late January.

We should find out soon.

[5280]

Looks like the Republican caucus for Colorado will be push forward to February 2012 instead of March if approved.
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_18956141

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like the Republican caucus for Colorado will be push forward to February 2012 instead of March if approved.
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_18956141

Indeed.  They will vote on that this Saturday.

Also, Ohio has actually moved back up to March 6 (Super Tuesday):

http://www.ballot-access.org/2011/09/22/ohio-2012-primary-to-be-in-march-not-may/

Ohio will be the second biggest delegate prize on Super Tuesday (Texas being first).  Of course, assuming that Perry wins his home state easily, Ohio will be the biggest Super Tuesday prize that will actually be contested.

[Tender Branson]

Mr. Morden, how likely is it that we'll have a somewhat final calendar by next Saturday ?

Are there any states that will decide on their date after next Saturday ?

[Mr. Morden]

Mr. Morden, how likely is it that we'll have a somewhat final calendar by next Saturday ?

Are there any states that will decide on their date after next Saturday ?

IA, NH, NV, SC, and GA will probably not have finalized things by Oct. 1, but every other state basically will have.  The only other states that might still be in limbo are states like NJ and WI, where the legislature has passed a bill, but the governor has neither signed nor vetoed it yet.

I expect that GA will be announced some time shortly after Oct. 1, and the other four states shortly after that.  The only thing might gum up the works is if NJ continues to remain in limbo like this.  Why won't Christie just sign the freaking bill?

[Tender Branson]

Mr. Morden, how likely is it that we'll have a somewhat final calendar by next Saturday ?

Are there any states that will decide on their date after next Saturday ?

IA, NH, NV, SC, and GA will probably not have finalized things by Oct. 1, but every other state basically will have.  The only other states that might still be in limbo are states like NJ and WI, where the legislature has passed a bill, but the governor has neither signed nor vetoed it yet.

I expect that GA will be announced some time shortly after Oct. 1, and the other four states shortly after that.  The only thing might gum up the works is if NJ continues to remain in limbo like this.  Why won't Christie just sign the freaking bill?

Will GA, NJ and WI get punished by the RNC if they decide their date after Oct. 1 ?

And what are the states that will already get punished in some way by the RNC ?

[Mr. Morden]

Mr. Morden, how likely is it that we'll have a somewhat final calendar by next Saturday ?

Are there any states that will decide on their date after next Saturday ?

IA, NH, NV, SC, and GA will probably not have finalized things by Oct. 1, but every other state basically will have.  The only other states that might still be in limbo are states like NJ and WI, where the legislature has passed a bill, but the governor has neither signed nor vetoed it yet.

I expect that GA will be announced some time shortly after Oct. 1, and the other four states shortly after that.  The only thing might gum up the works is if NJ continues to remain in limbo like this.  Why won't Christie just sign the freaking bill?

Will GA, NJ and WI get punished by the RNC if they decide their date after Oct. 1 ?

There's apparently no actual punishment for failing to meet the Oct. 1 deadline.  The rules say that you have to let the RNC know when you're going to hold your primary or caucus by Oct. 1, but it doesn't say what happens if you don't.  Last time around, there were a few states that missed the deadline, and nothing happened to them.  Still, like I said, other than these few exceptions, I expect nearly every state to meet the Oct. 1 deadline.  Florida, for example, by its own state law has to determine its primary date by Oct. 1.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Any state other than IA/NH/NV/SC that holds a primary before March 6 loses half its delegates.  And IA/NH/NV/SC are not allowed to go earlier than Feb. 1, or they lose half their delegates.

Note that I said "primary".  If a state holds caucuses, then they only lose half their delegates for going too early if the caucus results are binding on delegate allocation.  But many caucus states aren't binding on delegate allocation, so they pay absolutely no penalty for going early.  With Iowa, for example, the results on caucus day do not technically bind the results of delegate allocation for the state, so they can go as early as they want without paying a penalty.  Same goes for Maine, Minnesota, and Colorado, which is why the first two (and possibly the third) will end up going in early February.

[Mr. Morden]

And now it looks like we may be in limbo on Missouri for some time, potentially until early November:

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2011/09/23/general-mo-xgr-business-incentives_8698207.html

In brief, the primary is still, as of today, scheduled for Feb. 7.  The state House has passed a bill that would move the primary to March.  The state Senate has not yet acted on it, and it's not clear if it would pass there as is.  The legislature has adjourned for today, and will technically remain in special session for the foreseeable future, but only with one or two senators meeting each day to keep the session going.  In the background, you have legislators negotiating with Gov. Nixon on an overhaul of the state's tax incentives for businesses.  If they ever come to a breakthrough on that, then they'll call everyone in again to resume the session.  But this could drag on until early November, when the special session legally has to come to an end.

So, other states are going to have to start deciding what to do without the benefit of knowing how things will end in Missouri.  Florida, for example, has to decide on a date by Oct. 1, and so they're going to have to decide whether going fifth is important enough for them to schedule their primary for something like Jan. 31 or Feb. 4, thus pushing Iowa up to early January.

[California8429]

Colorado GOP is voting now to move up to Feb 7 with full support from elected officials and the party leadership

And there's an extremely high chance there won't be a penalty since we elect the delegates months later at the convention.

[California8429]

WOO!!! It's official. Colorado moves up to Feb 7, the day after Iowa (for now)  

[RI]

Nice.

[Mr. Morden]

Colorado moves to Feb. 7:

http://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Colorado-GOP-moves-up-2012-caucuses-to-Feb-7-2186720.php

Calendar in the OP has been updated.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

WOO!!! It's official. Colorado moves up to Feb 7, the day after Iowa (for now)  

So this is what a Rocky Mountain High looks like?

[5280]

WOO!!! It's official. Colorado moves up to Feb 7, the day after Iowa (for now)  

That's good news!

[Tender Branson]

More good news for Romney.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

More good news for Romney.

More so now then a week ago.


Remember, it is still a caucus and one which Romney risks being overrun by the TP if he is getting trounced by a single person amongst them by like 20 points. It seems less likely that that will occur now with Perry declining. But it is still a ways away and even with all Romney's advantages in the state, he can easily have it taken away  by aggressive TP turnout on caucus day.

[Mr. Morden]

Unconfirmed sources say Washington state caucus will be March 3 and Alaska will be some time in March.  I'll update the calendar in the OP if I get something more solid on that.

In any case, we now know that *at least* CO and MN caucuses will be on Feb. 7.  Possibly also MO primary and maybe ND caucus.  Given that, I would assume that at least IA, NH, NV, and SC will end up voting before Feb. 7.  My *guess* would be that Florida probably does the same, but I'm not sure.  The signals out of Florida are less clear.

If we assume that WA on March 3 is correct and that Florida does indeed go earlier than Feb. 7 and that NJ and WI move later as expected, then the final pre-Super Tuesday calendar might look something like this:

Jan. 10: IA caucus
Jan. 17: NH primary
Jan. 28: NV caucus, SC primary
Jan. 31 or Feb. 4: FL primary
Feb. 4 - 11: ME caucus
Feb. 7: CO, MN caucuses, (MO primary?), (ND caucus?)
Feb. 14 or Feb. 21: GA primary?
Feb. 28: AZ, MI primaries
Mar. 3: WA caucus
Mar. 7: Super Tuesday

OTOH, if Florida is less determined to go 5th than we've thought, it could be:

Jan. 16: IA caucus
Jan. 24: NH primary
Feb. 4: NV caucus, SC primary
Feb. 4 - 11: ME caucus
Feb. 7: CO, MN caucuses, (MO primary?), (ND caucus?)
Feb. 14: FL primary?
Feb. 21: GA primary?
Feb. 28: AZ, MI primaries
Mar. 3: WA caucus
Mar. 7: Super Tuesday

Something close to one of those two scenarios is probably what will happen......more likely the first scenario if I had to guess.  And it's also possible that Nevada and South Carolina decide they don't want to go on the same day, in which case Iowa gets bumped up to something like Jan. 3, 4, or 5.

[Yelnoc]

I doubt South Carolina and Nevada will go on the same down.  I also have an inkling that Georgia may try to cut ahead of Florida and figuratively give them the finger.  Georgia and Florida have gone back and forth over things like usage of the Chattahoochee River; I also think Florida's stubborn determination to be a special snowflake is annoying certain people within Georgia.

[California8429]

More good news for Romney.

Remember that the caucus was what propelled Maes to win the nomination and destroyed Norton's hopes for grass-roots support.