The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread

[Minnesota Mike]

If New Hampshire insists on going at least 7 days before Nevada and they stick with a Tuesday Primary that would put them on Jan 4th. That would mean the Iowa caucuses happen in December.

[cavalcade]

Supposedly Nevada has indeed picked the 14th- not confirmed yet though.

John Ralston, top political reporter in the state, tweeted that Nevada is indeed going on the 14th.

Then I believe that NH can legally go on the 10th and be satisfied that they are special.  Depending on the exact wording of the law, however, they might push the primary forward to the 7th (which would be 7 days before, but not a Tuesday), or the 3rd (which would be both).  Calculate the date of the Iowa caucus accordingly...

[Nichlemn]

I thought they were trying to deter front loading.

[Tender Branson]

So, Iowa might be sometime between December 27-31 ?

Nice ...

[redcommander]

So, Iowa might be sometime between December 27-31 ?

Nice ...

Awesome. I love the idea of a drawn out primary season. Has Iowa ever held its caucus the year before an election?

[Tender Branson]

So, Iowa might be sometime between December 27-31 ?

Nice ...

Awesome. I love the idea of a drawn out primary season. Has Iowa ever held its caucus the year before an election?

I think it would be the first time that any primary or caucus takes place in December.

[Nichlemn]

So, Iowa might be sometime between December 27-31 ?

Nice ...

Awesome. I love the idea of a drawn out primary season. Has Iowa ever held its caucus the year before an election?

I think it would be the first time that any primary or caucus takes place in December.

I'm concerned about precedent. If December is fair game, next time they'll be rushing for November, then October... then where does it end? Inauguration Day of the current term? They'll have to put a stop to it somewhere.

[Mr. Morden]

Nevada caucus to Jan. 14:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/65285.html

The calendar in the OP has been updated.

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire

Iowa and NH now have to make some hard decisions.  NH SoS Bill Gardner has consistently said that there's no chance of NH going less than 7 days before NV.  So the latest NH goes is Jan. 7.  NH also historically goes on a Tuesday, so maybe he would opt for Jan. 3.  But then that pushes Iowa into December.  Jan. 7 is less than ideal for NH, because it conflicts with NFL playoffs.  Though my guess is that Gardner really doesn't want Iowa pushed into December, because it would cause the parties to take a hard look at the role of IA and NH for the next time around.  So it's a tough call.

If NH does go on the 3rd, then I suppose there's a remote chance that IA could actually go *later* than NH, in order to avoid being pushed into December.  But that's unlikely.  More likely, NH on Jan. 3 means Iowa in December.  And probably not the last week of December either.  You're not going to get any news coverage over the week between Christmas and New Year's.  If Iowa is in December, it would probably be a week before Christmas, like Dec. 19.

I guess we'll find out one way or the other soon enough.

[Tender Branson]

Nevada caucus to Jan. 14:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/65285.html

The calendar in the OP has been updated.

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire

Iowa and NH now have to make some hard decisions.  NH SoS Bill Gardner has consistently said that there's no chance of NH going less than 7 days before NV.  So the latest NH goes is Jan. 7.  NH also historically goes on a Tuesday, so maybe he would opt for Jan. 3.  But then that pushes Iowa into December.  Jan. 7 is less than ideal for NH, because it conflicts with NFL playoffs.  Though my guess is that Gardner really doesn't want Iowa pushed into December, because it would cause the parties to take a hard look at the role of IA and NH for the next time around.  So it's a tough call.

If NH does go on the 3rd, then I suppose there's a remote chance that IA could actually go *later* than NH, in order to avoid being pushed into December.  But that's unlikely.  More likely, NH on Jan. 3 means Iowa in December.  And probably not the last week of December either.  You're not going to get any news coverage over the week between Christmas and New Year's.  If Iowa is in December, it would probably be a week before Christmas, like Dec. 19.

I guess we'll find out one way or the other soon enough.

NH primary and NFL playoffs starting on Jan. 7 ?

That probably deserves a thick red reminder in my calendar ...

Nothing better than football and voting on the same day.

[cavalcade]

It now sounds (via Chuck Todd) like Iowa will set their date soon (before NH announces), and would prefer to go in January.

That makes it sound like NH is leaning towards the 7th or 10th.

[Tender Branson]

It now sounds (via Chuck Todd) like Iowa will set their date soon (before NH announces), and would prefer to go in January.

That makes it sound like NH is leaning towards the 7th or 10th.

Iowa on the 3rd and NH on the 7th maybe ?

[Mr. Morden]

It now sounds (via Chuck Todd) like Iowa will set their date soon (before NH announces), and would prefer to go in January.

Or perhaps Iowa just wants to grab the Jan. 3 date before NH takes it?  That would force NH to either go with something like Jan. 7 or move into December.

[RI]

So, Iowa might be sometime between December 27-31 ?

Nice ...

Awesome. I love the idea of a drawn out primary season. Has Iowa ever held its caucus the year before an election?

I think it would be the first time that any primary or caucus takes place in December.

I'm concerned about precedent. If December is fair game, next time they'll be rushing for November, then October... then where does it end? Inauguration Day of the current term? They'll have to put a stop to it somewhere.

Actually, it has sort of happened before. For example, Florida held a caucus that was the actual first step toward electing delegates in October 1979 (I've even found almost all the county results of that contest too ). I believe they did it in 1983 as well, but that contest didn't have anywhere near the coverage as in 1979.

[Joe Biden 2020]

As much as I love early and long, drawn out primary seasons, I don't want any contest in December.  I don't want any political contest interfering with my Christmas or New Year's celebrations.  I hope New Hampshire gives up the idea of a Tuesday, and goes January 7, or at least gives up the idea of a week long gap before the next contest and goes January 10.  Iowa on January 3 is exactly what we had in 2008.

[Mr. Morden]

Reading some of the public comments by people in the know over the last ~24 hours, I'd say that there's a better than 50/50 chance that we're headed towards either Iowa or NH voting in December, and probably about a ~30% chance that NH votes *before* Iowa.

[Mr. Morden]

Rumors are percolating about Romney's allies in the early primary states having pushed for this calendar, with Santorum leading the accusations:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/06/romney-rebuked-over-primary-calendar-moves/

All we know for certain is that Romney campaign people in Nevada publicly said that they preferred for Nevada to schedule its caucuses in January, before Florida.  Whether there was actually a hidden Romney hand in the selection of Jan. 14 in particular, or in the selection of dates for Florida or other states as well is unclear.

[Tender Branson]

Iowa just picked January 3 for their caucus:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20111007/NEWS09/111007011/1056/

[cavalcade]

Iowa just picked January 3 for their caucus:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20111007/NEWS09/111007011/1056/

That gives NH a pretty nice window.  Seeing how it won't really be relevant this year anyway, they might as well take the 7th, or even the 10th.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'm pleased with January 3 for Iowa.  Hopefully, NH will get the hint and keep it either January 7 or 10.

[Mr. Morden]

Iowa hasn't really officially decided anything yet:

link

The caucus date will be voted on on Oct. 16, but until then, it's rather tentative.

The problem with NH going later than that is that Bill Gardner says that he's hamstrung by NH state law, which he claims forces him to go at least 7 days before Nevada.  He also "said the primary would not be scheduled for a Saturday because it is the Jewish sabbath".

So where does that leave us?  Unless Gardner is completely bluffing here, the latest he'll schedule the NH primary is Friday, Jan. 6th, just 3 days later than the tentative date for Iowa.  But is it really very likely that he'd go for a Friday primary?  '“Every presidential primary has been on a Tuesday, every state primary has been on a Tuesday, and ever federal and state general election has been on a Tuesday,” Gardner said.'

This is why I'm thinking that it's very very possible that NH will move all the way up to December (maybe the 20th?), putting it before Iowa.  Or possibly, NH moves in and takes Jan. 3rd, and Iowa is bumped up into December instead.

[Tender Branson]

He also "said the primary would not be scheduled for a Saturday because it is the Jewish sabbath".

What ? There are only 10.000 Jews (1%) in New Hampshire. They can vote absentee if they don't want to vote on a Saturday.

[Tender Branson]

New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner said today he may schedule the first-in-the nation primary as early as Dec. 6, marking the first time ever that New Hampshire voters would pick a presidential candidate in December.

“Any Tuesday in December would be a possibility, but that’s one of them,” Gardner said today, when asked about a Dec. 6 primary. “It’s not something I would do lightly. It would be done regrettably, but if it has to be done, we’re going to comply with our tradition and our state law.”

http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/10/calendar-war-continues-considers-primary-early-dec/Co3q3Rv3plIJFP1SILrBUP/index.html

[Bull Moose Base]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/65285.html

Nevada set for Saturday, January 14, pushing New Hampshire to first week of January, probably Tuesday, January 3, which pushes Iowa into December.

"Romney may have an advantage campaigning here because if I'm not mistaken Mormons don't celebrate Christmas until March" -Rick Perry, December, 2011.

[Yelnoc]

Here is the relevant snippet from the New Hampshire Law.

"[the New Hampshire Primary must be held] on the Tuesday at least seven days immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election."

With Nevada scheduled for January 14, the closest date that meets state law is January 3.  Iowa state law "mandates its caucus be held eight days before any caucus or primary"; a legalistic interpretation would place the Iowa Caucuses on December 26.  But there is no way the state will hold its caucuses the day after Christmas.  December 20 looks like a more likely Tuesday.  The problem there is over three weeks and a major holiday will separate it and New Hampshire.  The Iowa results will become much less meaningful due to those dynamics.  And so, Iowa has a vested interest in keeping its primary in January.

The question becomes, how much will the two states compromise?  The New Hampshire Secretary of State seems set on getting his way; I have to think he would not go with the December 6 date but there is no way to know.  This could be easily solved if he ignored the mandate for a Tuesday and placed the New Hampshire primary on January 7.  Then, Iowa could somehow "broadly interpret" its mandate to go on January 1. 

[Mr. Morden]

I believe the NH law was changed just a few years ago, so that the SoS can now set it for any day of the week, not just a Tuesday.  So in principle, Gardner could set it for Saturday the 7th.  But he doesn't seem to want to.  He wants to set it for a Tuesday.

Likewise, the 8 day rule in Iowa didn't seem to be binding in 2008, when the caucuses were only 5 days before NH.

So there's flexibility there.  Both states would ideally like to go on Jan. 3, and they'd both like to not have to share that week with the other state.  But obviously, at least one of them is going to lose out on that.  We may find out next weekend, if the Iowa GOP takes a vote on what date to set the caucuses for on Oct. 16.