The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread  (Read 66441 times)
jimrtex
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« on: April 13, 2011, 11:29:55 PM »

Texas is likely to move its primary to April to avoid the penalty for not using proportional delegate allocation.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2011, 09:52:36 PM »

Texas is likely to move its primary to April to avoid the penalty for not using proportional delegate allocation.
Indeed, it's being talked about.  But have any bills to do that actually been put forward on this in the legislature yet?
SB 100, HB 111, and HB 3585 are all intended to implement the Federal MOVE act which requires a 45-day mail out period for military voters for all federal elections.  This causes a problem in Texas, because of the time between the primary and the primary runoff, because Texas combines the statewide primary and presidential primary, and because of the filing deadline.

If Texas leaves the primary in March, the filing deadline would have to be moved into December to provide enough time for ballots to be prepared and mailed out in mid-January.  A December filing deadline conflicts with a constitutional provision that requires county office holders to resign if they file for another office in the middle of the term.  A December filing deadline is more than a year before the end of the term.  So let's say that you are in a 3rd year of a 4-year term as county commissioner.  You decide to run for county judge in November 2012.  You have just resigned the last year of your county commissioner term.  It doesn't make a very good platform to have quit the last elected position.

So if they change the filing deadline, they have to also change the constitution, which requires a vote of the people, who might vote NO.  Since the election on the amendment would be in November 2011 there is a risk factor.

If they keep the March primary, the runoff will have to be moved from early April to mid-to-late May, where it steps on local elections.  So they have to sort of fudge this.  In Texas, primaries are conducted by the political parties - though they typically receive a lot of assistance from the counties, including use of voting machines, and the counties conduct early voting.  But they can't be combined with nonpartisan local elections.  So what they have done is told cities and school districts that want to keep a May 2012 election, they may have to run the election themselves, and might not have any voting equipment from the county.  With early voting, you will have two overlapping elections.

If they move the primary to April, they can keep a January filing deadline, and have a runoff in June.  There is still a conflict with the local elections, but perhaps a bit less.

The original versions of SB 100, HB 111, and HB 3585 have no calendar changes, but are being amended in committee.  SB 100 has passed the senate with a March primary, May runoff, and December filing deadline.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2011, 03:21:39 AM »

The Texas Defense and Veterans Affairs Committee has supposedly reported a version of SB 100 that would move the date to April.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2011, 03:43:25 AM »

States are required to mail military ballots for federal elections 45 days before the election.  So 60 days is probably a minimum.  Florida, South Carolina, and New Hampshire have to get pre-clearance to change their election dates.

Someone ought to do an "early March" all mail-election, and mail out ballots 45 days early.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2011, 01:04:02 AM »

Texas ended up keeping the primary on the first Tuesday in March, assuming Perry signs the law.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #5 on: December 16, 2011, 03:49:34 AM »

On the other hand, this article says Ohio is still headed towards a unified primary in May:

http://www2.ohiovotes2011.com/news/2011/dec/14/swing-state-ohio-set-2012-primary-may-ar-863464/

Still confused about what's actually going on.

The bill that passed, HB 369 set new congressional districts, and combined the primary on March 6.   For all offices that had been scheduled for March 6, the filing deadline was left at December 7.

For congress, and president, and president delegates, a December 30 deadline was set; and any previous filings are discarded.

In Ohio, delegates are actually elected in the primary, and the election is done by congressional district.  When a delegate candidate files, he lists the name of his favored two presidential candidates (with their permission), and then the candidate ranks all the delegates who favored him.  So when delegates are apportioned by presidential candidate, there is a list of delegates that these are picked off of.

I assume in practice, the presidential candidates pick their delegates and help them get their signatures to get on the ballot. Since delegates (and indirectly presidential candidates) quality by congressional district, a presidential candidate might not be on the ballot statewide.  I think Gingrich had failed to qualify statewide, and this was cited as a failure of his organization, but now he can fix that.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #6 on: December 16, 2011, 02:05:58 PM »

This article suggests that the new date being eyed for Texas's primary is May 22:

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-redistricting/redistricting/supreme-court-freezes-texas-elections/

But it also suggests that that might just be for congressional and legislative primaries, while the presidential and senate primaries remain in March.  But as I said yesterday, about 2/3rds of Texas's delegates to the RNC are allocated at the congressional district level.  So how are you going to have a presidential primary without knowing what the congressional district boundaries are?

Granted, the Texas GOP could simply change the state's delegate allocation rules so that it's 100% based on the statewide result.  But you'd still be left with the question of whether the state actually wants to pay for two primaries.

Texas law does not specify how delegates are selected.  It requires that 75% of delegates be chosen "based" on the primary results ("based on" includes winner take all).  Democrats use senatorial districts; Republicans use congressional districts, but in both cases, it is simply a matter of which election precincts are tabulated.  There are no delegates actually selected in the primary, the selection in June is based on the March results.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #7 on: December 16, 2011, 08:13:51 PM »

Texas = April 3, IF there are congressional and legislative districts before February 1st.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #8 on: December 17, 2011, 02:18:59 AM »

On the other hand, this article says Ohio is still headed towards a unified primary in May:

http://www2.ohiovotes2011.com/news/2011/dec/14/swing-state-ohio-set-2012-primary-may-ar-863464/

Still confused about what's actually going on.


this is the version I hear is most likely to occur. A May primary was traditional until recent elections, and no one wants to spend on two primary elections so long as a redistricting deal is reached.

That article is like so December 14th.  You've got to move into the modern era.

http://www2.ohiovotes2011.com/news/2011/dec/15/ohio-governor-signs-march-6-primary-date-law-ar-865288/
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jimrtex
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« Reply #9 on: March 07, 2012, 11:26:44 AM »

The Texas GOP is apparently close to giving up on the primaries and running its own County Conventions on April 14 or April 21.  The plan will be voted on by the State Republican Executive Committee this upcoming Wednesday.

http://hardincountyconservatives.blogspot.com/p/texas-gop-draft-plan-temporary-and.html

The Texas GOP appears to have approved the change, but it seems I overstated the vastness of the change earlier.

The delegates will still be bound based on the results of the primary (and the allocations of bindings are proportional).  The delegates are still bound for up to three ballots; they will not even be polled on the first ballot.

Sorry, can you clarify this?  Are you saying that the delegates will be chosen in April, but then their vote at the RNC will be bound by the results of the primary, which isn't until May or June?
In Texas, the primary-nominating parties, also hold conventions.  On election night, there are precinct conventions, and then a couple of weeks later county/senatorial district conventions, and then a state convention in early June.  The state conventions are really large, and can't be moved because of hotel reservations. 

Note, the senatorial district conventions aren't really for senate districts, but for splitting county conventions in larger counties.  They are optional, and even when held they are often held at the same location in a county.  The Democrats choose their sub-state-level national delegates by senatorial district, but these are done at the state convention, where delegates from all the counties in the senatorial district meet in a senatorial district caucus.  The Republicans choose their sub-state-level national delegates by congressional district, so even when they have senatorial district conventions, part of the process is based on congressional district.

The primaries determine the party nominees for all offices but president, and it is pretty hard to replace a nominee.  The conventions conduct party business and choose delegates to the next level.  The state convention chooses the delegates to the national convention.  Texas law requires at least 75% of non-official delegates to be based on the results of the presidential primary (based on can include winner-take-all, but the national party rules require proportionality - the Republicans did so for all primaries before April.

Though the national delegates are based on the primary, they aren't chosen until the state convention.  The Democrats poll their convention attendees on presidential preferences, and choose delegates to the next level based on the presidential preference.  The Democrats also choose national delegates in proportion to the poll taken at the precinct conventions (the so-called Texas Two Step, or Texas Double Cross).  They skirt the 75% requirement by having some of these national delegates be official delegates (while the intent is that these might be used for congressmen and the like, the Democratic delegates can be city councilmen and county offiicals, etc. chosen on the basis of which presidential candidate they support).

That is for normal years.

Back in December, after the Supreme Court issued its stay, the SA Court put out a truly ludicrous schedule that would have moved the primary (and precinct conventions) to April 3 and the county conventions to April 14/21.  That schedule assumed that new maps would be settled by February 1, and that an election that will take 89 days could be done in 63 days.  The Supreme Court hearing was January 9, the schedule assumed that the Supreme Court would issue their opinion, have it digested, and new maps drawn in 23 days.

The parties realized that the primary would not be on April 3, and that if there was a primary on May 29, they wouldn't have time for intermediate conventions before the state convention.   So they came up with a schedule that would have the county conventions before the primary.

Precinct conventions were eliminated, and the county conventions will be held on April 21 (this is the only part of the December court order that is still in force).  At the county convention, voters from each precinct will sit as a delegation, and have a voting strength equal to the number of delegates they would have chosen if there had been precinct conventions.

The Democrats will not be using the primary results at all, but will choose national delegates based on the proportion of participants supporting each candidate at the county conventions.

The Republicans will choose its delegates independently of the primary results, but will assign them a candidate who they will vote for in the first ballot of the national convention.  Under the original plan, the national delegates would have been chosen from actual supporters of the presidential candidates.  Under the new plan, there is a potential for fights to determine delegates at both the county and state conventions.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #10 on: March 09, 2012, 04:16:33 AM »

Texas Democrats are using the county convention results on April 21.
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