Bingaman undecided on re-election.

[Skill and Chance]

What about Martin Heinrich? Everyone thinks he's hot and all.

Too much of a city slicker.  You can't win statewide here unless you're Hispanic or look like you can milk a cow.

He certainly has a shot.  He's run two great campaigns in a row with the odds stacked against him, but he'd have to be helped by a strong Obama showing in the state.  That may not come.

Wouldn't he put NM-01 at risk if he ran for the Senate?

A D+5 District during a presidential year?  That's not going to be a major concern.  Also, the urban Albuquerque district will probably be made even more democratic during redistricting as a compromise to make life easier for Steve Pearce in NM-02.

[Skill and Chance]

NM-01 would be risked, but not a high risk.  It's an incumbent bias district more than anything, but it does lean Democrat.

Republicans controlled it for along time, but Heather Wilson was somewhat moderate (or at the very least, non-threatening and sane) and her opponents were always awful.  There was never much effort put into winning her district mainly because candidates always choose not to run.

But Heinrich won't win.  I like him and voted for him this year, but he just doesn't sell outside of Albuquerque.  It's your typical major city vs. rest of state split.

As for redistricting, I'll be interested to see what happens.  I'm not sure about how much water this rumor holds, but apparently if NM-02 and NM-03 were split vertically east-west instead of north-south, they would could be made lean Republican instead of the solid Dem and solid Rep they are now.  Gary Johnson didn't mess with it in 2000, but I don't think Susana Martinez is as noble.

Does the D-controlled legislature have a restricted role in redistricting or something?  I assume they would not agree to this off hand.