US House Redistricting: Nevada

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There's actually about 100k people in the non-Clark parts of that seat if I remember my maps right. Those super-sparsely populated counties ironically might have the highest per capita rate of prostitutes in the US (then again I imagine most of the prostitutes there live in either Reno or Vegas.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The current NV-02 is R+5. The new one under that map is about R+2. NV-03 will probably end up about R+5 under that map, maybe a few points more, but it'll belong to Heck, no way can Angle carpetbag there.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yes, Hispanic groups want to make sure Hispanics aren't elected and thus oppose a Hispanic-packed district which probably wouldn't even elect a Hispanic rep anyway (We're talking about 42% Hispanic and Hispanics have lower turnout...)

The Democrats would just rather have two >60% Obama districts than a district in the mid to high sixties for Obama and one in the high fifties (probably wouldn't be competitive, but why take chances?)

Yeah I plugged it into DRA and played with some numbers, you'd end up with an about D+4 seat, a D+15 seat, an R+3 seat and an R+5 seat roughly. The Democrats would obviously prefer two D+9 or 10 seats.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL funny to say that considering who my rep is.

I don't even support the Democrats' dummymander anyway. Get two safe Dem seats around Las Vegas and two GOP-leaning seats in the rest of the state. Which is probably what we're getting anyway.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Look it's pretty obvious why the Democrats oppose the minority-packed district, because it'd be a Dem pack seat and would leave the other Las Vegas district relatively marginal and only about one or two points more Democratic than Heck's current seat (I've ran the numbers.) If you want to blather about how all white liberals (and Hispanic groups) are terrified of a seat being slightly more likely to elect a Hispanic than an identical-voting white Democrat you can but you aren't proving anything. It might also be taken a bit more seriously if not from someone who argues that only academic results of white students should be taken into account when comparing school districts.

Actually it's pretty clear why the Hispanic groups would oppose the pack too besides partisanship, a decently split Vegas gives them two seats that have a decent chance of electing a Hispanic Democrat vs. one seat that has a chance but no guarantee and one seat with little chance at all. The Nevada Democrats in general obviously care only about electing Democrats, it seems pretty silly that such a Hispanic-represented party in the legislature is supposedly full of people screaming "NO NO NO HISPANIC REP CAN BE ELECTED, WE MUST ELECT ONLY WHITE LIBERALS AND ABSOLUTELY NO ONE ELSE!" with basically no logic behind it. Of course the Democrats proposed a stupid plan that doesn't really accomplish this either, if you want to criticize the party go ahead and do it for that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Actually, that's not what I said at all. I actually said that people from states like California, DC, and Wisconsin like to compare apples to oranges, and that they do an extremely poor job in educating minority students, both of which are true by the facts. In order to hide this some seek the apples to oranges comparison.

Saying "Of course Texas schools perform worse than Wisconsin ones, they have no blacks" is quite different from this.

And decent chance my a$$. The new maps have a whopping 19.3% Hispanic VAP in CD-04. How many Hispanic Democratic reps have been elected in the past 200 years from such a seat? You already know the answer....

Colorado Senate. Also CO-03.

Can you explain why Hispanic groups would oppose this beyond "They're Dem hack groups."? Because while that may be true, that still gives them no motivation to prefer to have whites elected over Hispanics and deliberately support blocking the election of minorities. And of course the fact that white liberals helped nominate Obama is completely ignored...

Truthfully its not even difficult to give Hispanics a plurality in 1 district while leaving the other at over 60% Obama. Simply put Enterprise, Spring Valley, most of North Las Vegas, and the blacks in Vegas itself in 1 district, and the Hispanics in the other.

Uh, you can't pack Hispanics and leave most of North Las Vegas in the other seat because that's where many Hispanics are. You also can't draw such a district without wrapping around the heavily Republican sprawl in the NW part of the LV metro. If it's possible go ahead and prove me wrong by drawing the map.

I have never once heard of a white Democrat complaining about more minorities being added to their district, unless it was part of a blatant GOP power grab (like the DeLay-mander.) I should note most minorities seem to take the same position as white liberals here, one black Texas State Rep supported DeLay's redraw because it would result in a new black rep. His predominately black constituents primaried him out next election.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

According to Jon Ralston, the Democrats' second map addressed Sandoval's concerns... by putting all the Hispanics into Heck's district.

Ha. Hilarious!

Heck wouldn't have to worry though, he can just run in the new NV-04.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Seriously, just give us a 2-2 map and be done with it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Heck lives in Henderson, which can't fit anywhere besides the district that'd reach into rural Nevada. There'd be no reason for him to not run in that seat anyway. There's going to be two seats based around inner Las Vegas no matter what, and getting either one to be a swing seat would require some actual gerrymandering. But that's exactly what the Republicans were trying to push through a Dem-controlled legislature.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This looks like it was from the first map they passed:

I did my best to draw it in DRA:

NV-01 - 59-39 Obama
NV-02 - 49-48 Obama
NV-03 - 56-42 Obama
NV-04 - 57-41 Obama

I... don't think that's going to fly with the governor.

Wow 3 D seats and 1 swing seat? That's pretty bold.

NV-2 went narrowly for Obama, but there's plenty of evidence from the last several elections that it's too R to be a swing seat for Congress.

Went for McCain by like 17 votes. I think it was the closest seat in the country. Not much different from this district obviously.

But the GOP probably would have at least a 40% chance of 2-2 with those districts considering Obama overperformed in Nevada 2008. Which is still better for the Democrats than an almost set in stone 2-2.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hehe that's awesome. Outside shot at 3 districts depending on what kind of extremist comes out of the NV-4 primary.

Uh, it is far more likely that map elects 3 Democrats than 3 Republicans. Especially if you want to talk about nominating extremists, something the Nevada Democratic Party isn't exactly known for and the Nevada GOP obviously doesn't mind doing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hehe that's awesome. Outside shot at 3 districts depending on what kind of extremist comes out of the NV-4 primary.

Uh, it is far more likely that map elects 3 Democrats than 3 Republicans. Especially if you want to talk about nominating extremists, something the Nevada Democratic Party isn't exactly known for and the Nevada GOP obviously doesn't mind doing.

A

Still not something a Republican should get excited about, as three Democrats is far more likely. Especially since the Republicans would be more likely to nominate an extremist in NV-4.