US House Redistricting: Nevada

[JohnnyLongtorso]

This is what I came up with for Nevada:




The blue district is 52% white, 12% black, 9% Asian, 24% Hispanic.
The red district is 35% white, 11% black, 6% Asian, 45% Hispanic.
The other two districts are 71% white.

I'm not sure which one Shelley Berkeley would run in and which one would be open. The red district is split off from parts of NV-01 and NV-03. NV-02 moves a little bit to the Democrats; Obama probably won there by a few thousand votes (not really sure what could be done to make it any safer; Republicans shouldn't have that much trouble holding it with anyone who isn't Sharron Angle). NV-03 probably becomes the most Republican district in the state.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Yeah, there's no way the Democratic-controlled legislature is going to draw a new district like that. The deal with Sandoval is almost certainly going to be giving Heck a solid R seat while drawing a new lean/solid-D seat. And they're not going to be able to draw a Hispanic-majority seat, given that the Hispanic population is too spread out among Clark County. Maybe in 2020, but not this time.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Nevada Republicans in the legislature released their proposed map:



Here's the PDF verison if you want to zoom in.

It's rather similar to the map I posted up at the top of the thread.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here are all the map pdfs:

http://www.nevadarepublicanlegislators.com/

[JohnnyLongtorso]

These are the numbers for the Republican proposal:

District   GOP%   DEM%   HVAP%   BVAP%   Total Hispanic%
CD 01   32.0%   45.5%   17.7%   9.9%   20.6%
CD 02   42.8%   35.7%   16.6%   1.9%   20.4%
CD 03   40.8%   37.5%   12.2%   5.5%   14.4%
CD 04   20.8%   57.8%   44.3%   14.2%   50.7%

I'm not sure if the D/R numbers are registered voters or what.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I can see why the Republicans are trying to be so conciliatory. I've just tried to draw a McCain district in Nevada, and it is not easy. I finally got one to 50-48 McCain, which leaves the two Las Vegas-area seats safe (about 64% Obama each). The Reno seat is about a 1-point margin for Obama.

Here it is:




NV-01 (blue) - 64.3 Obama, 33.7 McCain
NV-02 (green) - 49.4 Obama, 48.3 McCain
NV-03 (purple) - 50.1 McCain, 47.8 Obama
NV-04 (red) - 64.5 Obama, 33.2 McCain

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Putting all of Clark's Hispanics wouldn't make the new district instantly competitive, either. I got a 68% Obama, 43% Hispanic VAP district and a 58% Obama district out of Clark, with NV-03 reduced to a 50-47 Obama margin.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I guess you could dump Pahrump into NV-02, but that would make NV-02 better for the Democrats. Plus then all four districts would be in the Las Vegas media market.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I did my best to draw it in DRA:

NV-01 - 59-39 Obama
NV-02 - 49-48 Obama
NV-03 - 56-42 Obama
NV-04 - 57-41 Obama

I... don't think that's going to fly with the governor.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Not really; NV-02 is pretty much impossible to shift more than a percent or two, because it's dominated by Washoe County.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

SURPRISE!

Sandoval vetoes Democrats' map.

Excuse me while I pick myself up off the floor.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Krazen's obsession with proving that "white liberals" are the REAL racists is getting pretty pathetic.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

According to Jon Ralston, the Democrats' second map addressed Sandoval's concerns... by putting all the Hispanics into Heck's district.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Well, we've been waiting for the courts to do something about redistricting... and they've certainly done something.

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[JohnnyLongtorso]

This looks like it was from the first map they passed:

I did my best to draw it in DRA:

NV-01 - 59-39 Obama
NV-02 - 49-48 Obama
NV-03 - 56-42 Obama
NV-04 - 57-41 Obama

I... don't think that's going to fly with the governor.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Court-drawn map released.

Las Vegas area:

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Someone on DKE drew it up in DRA and got these numbers:

NV-01: Obama 64.5, McCain 33.0, Dem 64.4, Rep 35.6
NV-02: Obama 49.5, McCain 48.2, Dem 45.3, Rep 54.7
NV-03: Obama 53.6, McCain 44.5, Dem 49.7, Rep 50.3
NV-04: Obama 56.1, McCain 41.7, Dem 54.0, Rep. 46.0

It's unclear how final this map is.