massachussets senate: with high turnout, brown in danger

[sg0508]

As of now, he's proven to be pretty popular in MA and he's gaining a reputation as a republican that "gets it" and understands what is important and what isn't.  Then again, one could also just say that he's reflecting the views of the state he lives in.

That being said, I have a hard time believing he won't have at least some trouble in 2012.  For one, it will be a presidential year and the democratic turnout will overwhelm GOP turnout in MA.  Secondly, winning the statehouse is far easier for the minority party than a National race (presidential race or senatorial).  Thirdly, I doubt he won't be challenged in the primary by someone from the right and those primaries can be very damaging.  But, the GOP has proven that we're not smart and we have no trouble giving up a win for a candidate who became a national laughingstock (DE).

What do you say?  The issue for the GOP in MA is a similar one in states like RI and MD.  The ceiling of support can't really be that high.  In MD, it's almost impossible for a republican to break 52% and RI is maybe 55% (Carcieri).  Thus, there is little margin for error.

I still think the economy plays a role in this one and if things improve and Obama's ratings rise, that's going to hurt Brown's chances.  Even if he's an excellent case of what Congress should be, don't think for a second the democrats are willing to turn a blindeye to let him win a full term in MA.

For those that say he cannot be teabagged, think again.  The GOP has proven they're not smart (stated above) and they threw some easily winnable seats away in Nov.  Worse, you listen to some of those idiots talk and you realize how uneducated some Americans are.

[Mjh]

For those that say he cannot be teabagged, think again.  The GOP has proven they're not smart (stated above) and they threw some easily winnable seats away in Nov.  Worse, you listen to some of those idiots talk and you realize how uneducated some Americans are.

I agree that it is possible he will be primaried, but doesn't most Republicans and Republicans in MA understand that Scott Brown is the best thing that has happened for them in a long long time?
Why throw that away just because Jim DeMint, Sarah Palin and the retards at RedState.com says he isn't pure enough?

[Marokai Backbeat]

Still think threads like this shouldn't be allowed, but I guess I'm the only one that actually gets bothered by these things, so oh well.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Like it matters. He'll be teabagged anyway.

Scott Brown's approvals amongst conservatives is 71–14, and 74–13 amongst all Republicans. There's no room for a challenge from the right.

Not that I'm suggesting it could happen, but I just felt like pointing out:

This is what I find most interesting:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This happened within a freaking month. A clear indication that people will wildly swing back and forth depending on what people tell them to think. Before there's a bunch of far-right wacked out endorsements of this crazy bitch, people love Castle, but now that people say Castle isn't good enough, suddenly there's a 20% swing in the other direction.

There may be less room for a tea party challenge in Massachusetts than in Delaware, but it's been made clear that people will wildly swing back and forth depending on what they're told to think. If Castle could have a +35 Approval rating and then swing to -4 Approval in a month, people who have high approvals are clearly not immune.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Not to mention that Castle was a pillar of the Republican party in Delaware and thus much harder to tar with lies and distortions, not a newbie like Brown.

[King]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_1202424.pdf

Scott Brown leads all Democrats - Patrick by 7, Vicki Kennedy by 7, Markey by 10, Capuano by 16, and Lynch by 19.

Thank you for posting a link to the same poll in its thread.

[sg0508]

For those that say he cannot be teabagged, think again.  The GOP has proven they're not smart (stated above) and they threw some easily winnable seats away in Nov.  Worse, you listen to some of those idiots talk and you realize how uneducated some Americans are.

I agree that it is possible he will be primaried, but doesn't most Republicans and Republicans in MA understand that Scott Brown is the best thing that has happened for them in a long long time?
Why throw that away just because Jim DeMint, Sarah Palin and the retards at RedState.com says he isn't pure enough?

The non-political answer to your question is that people are morons in this country.  Hell, most Americans can't name their House Rep, Governor or Senators.  Education has gone to hell in this country.  Thus, you listen to what other morons around tell you, including people like DeMint who continues to prove to be one of the most intolerant freaks; of course in this great land, he's gaining power within the party. 

20 years from now, people will still remember that DE Senate race and ask the GOP voters there, what the hell were they thinking?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Not to mention that Castle was a pillar of the Republican party in Delaware and thus much harder to tar with lies and distortions, not a newbie like Brown.

Castle was never liked by his state's Tea Party -- he was actively opposed by it. Scott Brown won because of his state's Tea Party -- and organization, I'd like to point out, that still likes and supports him.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Brown will win the primary. However let's see how strong he is in the general after two years of the House GOP leadership acting like how Gingrich and co did in 1995, with in a presidential year. I mean how is Brown going to run in an Obama vs. Palin race? Even endorsing Obama isn't going to do him much good in that type of race.

[tmthforu94]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_1202424.pdf

Scott Brown leads all Democrats - Patrick by 7, Vicki Kennedy by 7, Markey by 10, Capuano by 16, and Lynch by 19.

Thank you for posting a link to the same poll in its thread.

When I first read the thread, it hadn't been updated to include the poll results, and I didn't bother checking it again before posting.

[sg0508]

The problem is, there are way too many voters who will vote a straight-ticket no matter who the candidates are.  While Congress and gov't is a joke, we're still responsible because we keep voting people back into office and getting rid of good ones because of the D/R next to their name.

[Zarn]

Kennedy - 48%
Brown - 41%

Patrick - 49%
Brown - 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_1202424.pdf

You have the results switched around.