North Carolina 2012 Gubernatorial Race

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Appearently McCrory still holds the same 12 point lead he held in mid 2009. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_1129.pdf

He leads by 20 among Independents, while Perdue is upside down on favoribility by 33-49.


McCrory leads the primary.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_11302.pdf

Though, he is only at 37% which is what I would expect from his Charlotte metro base. What is important to see is if the opposition rallies to Fetzer.


I will also say the Perdue has been acting like Mrs. Conservative these last few weeks. She held a conference with small business owners about over-burdensome regulations and ways to simiplify them, in which her rhetoric was of the sort "The regulations are litterally killing us, is what I often hear from small business owners".  She also has been making vague but aggressive statements about "wastefull spending".

Of course her biggest problem is that, now that Easily's case is finished, the federal dogs will turn on Purdue now, for her questionable flights and campaign expenses. Which makes the latest new even more hilarious. She has been appointed Vice Chair of the DGA. lol.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Does Perdue really believe she can fool enough voters to get reelected?

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Perdue looks like she's DOA. Best chance she has imo is to say she can be a check on the Republican legislature.

[rbt48]

Maybe she can ride Obama's coattails to reelection!

[feeblepizza]

Yep, Bev Purdue is dead meat. I'd say that McCrory will take her spot.

[Mr. Taft Republican]

I'd need to learn more about McCrory vs. Fetzer, but theres no doubt that Bev isn't gonna make the cut, no matter what "Pro-business" stuff she spews, voters can't trust her.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Perdue is in very bad shape, obviously.
But I remember that Mitch Daniels was in the same place after the 2006 elections due to some very unpopular decisions he had taken.

[tmthforu94]

Perdue is in very bad shape, obviously.
But I remember that Mitch Daniels was in the same place after the 2006 elections due to some very unpopular decisions he had taken.

Not really. A couple polls early on had him trailing by 1-2 points, but never by the margins that McCrory is facing.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Perdue is in very bad shape, obviously.
But I remember that Mitch Daniels was in the same place after the 2006 elections due to some very unpopular decisions he had taken.

Not really. A couple polls early on had him trailing by 1-2 points, but never by the margins that McCrory is facing.

Trailing who? The pathetic candidates that eventually ran?
Neither of them was as well-known and liked as McCrory.

[Skill and Chance]

The only way the Dems will be holding this seat is if Roy Cooper primaries Perdue/convinces her to drop out or if Obama has near 60% approval in NC in 2012 for a second round of coattails.

[rbt48]

The only way the Dems will be holding this seat is if Roy Cooper primaries Perdue/convinces her to drop out or if Obama has near 60% approval in NC in 2012 for a second round of coattails.

Wasn't her margin of victory slightly larger than Obama's in 2008?

[Niemeyerite]

The only way the Dems will be holding this seat is if Roy Cooper primaries Perdue/convinces her to drop out or if Obama has near 60% approval in NC in 2012 for a second round of coattails.

Wasn't her margin of victory slightly larger than Obama's in 2008?

yes, it was. he won by 0.3% and she won by 3.4%. hagan margin was of 8.5%. so, if there were coattails, they came from the senate election

[Holmes]

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The only way the Dems will be holding this seat is if Roy Cooper primaries Perdue/convinces her to drop out or if Obama has near 60% approval in NC in 2012 for a second round of coattails.

Wasn't her margin of victory slightly larger than Obama's in 2008?

yes, it was. he won by 0.3% and she won by 3.4%. hagan margin was of 8.5%. so, if there were coattails, they came from the senate election

If you check the results, McCrory got 47% in Mecklenburg county (McCain 39% or so) and McCrory outperformed McCain in the surronding counties. McCrory lost the bubba vote basically outside of his area of the state. McCrory thus has to win a large number of people who voted for McCain but wasn't willing to vote for a big city mayor from Charlotte over Perdue in 2008.
Now that Perdue has been in office, I think she has probably angered many of them.

Also events haven't been particularly good for Dems in Wake county with both the school board and county commission run by the GOP now and that is despite Marshall winning it (by 2 the last I checked, but that was several weeks ago). So while the Dems may win Wake, it probably won't be by the margins of 2008. And the unpopularity of the school board's new policies didn't have any effect on GOP performances in county commission and other county elections in 2010. So I don't think that Perdue will be able to increase numbers in Wake to offset lost numbers elsewhere.

[Niemeyerite]

Call me crazy, but I think NC's gubernatorial race will be very, very, very close. I'm not saying perdue will win, but I think she has a good shot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama will not win Indiana and NC again so those states are locks for the GOP anyway. Nixon or the MT governorship are better chances with our senate races.

[Niemeyerite]

Obama will not win Indiana and NC again so those states are locks for the GOP anyway. Nixon or the MT governorship are better chances with our senate races.

I agree on indiana, but I think obama could carry NC if the GOP nominee isn't mike huckabee.

[Skill and Chance]

Obama will not win Indiana and NC again so those states are locks for the GOP anyway. Nixon or the MT governorship are better chances with our senate races.

I agree on indiana, but I think obama could carry NC if the GOP nominee isn't mike huckabee.

NC is available to him, but he would have to already be doing pretty well nationally.  With the continuing demographic change he probably doesn't need 2008 numbers to carry NC again.  Still, if he is competitive there, he is should getting over 51% of the national PV.