i thought of an idea where the doj draws "interstate districts"
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  i thought of an idea where the doj draws "interstate districts"
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freepcrusher
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« on: August 16, 2011, 01:09:24 AM »

and the remaining districts are drawn by the legislature. For instance Maine gets an at large district, an interstate Maine-New Hampshire, a New Hampshire at large, an interstate New Hampshire-Vermont, and an interstate Vermont-Massachusetts district. The massachusetts legislature draws eight districts and the DOJ draws an interstate Massachusetts-Rhode Island district. This reduces population inequalities.

If this was done for California, I have a map of the state which would be even more compact than the current one with nominal county splits.






















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freepcrusher
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« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2011, 01:11:53 AM »

Now for a description of each district:

1st District (Blue) White Majority (68.2%)
This is the North Coast Community of Interest. Ecology as well as decriminalization of marijuana is a huge issue here. Obama won 72.8% of the vote here. Mike Thompson lives in the new 3rd but he likely runs here. Although he is easily one of the most liberal members of the blue dog caucus, he might face a primary here, just for being in it.

2nd District (Green) White Majority (75%)
This is Wally Herger’s district. This is basically the “Far North Interior” Community of interest seat. This area votes similar to eastern Oregon. Not as republican as his old seat but still a 52.8% McCain seat. Safe Republican

3rd District (Dark Magenta) Coalition Seat 49.2% White, 25% Hispanic, 12.4% Asian, 4.2% Other, .7% Native. This is similar to the old 3rd district in the 1990s that was Vic Fazio’s district. This is the Sacramento Valley COI seat. Mike Thompson lives here, but will likely run in the 1st. I see John Garamendi running in this 60.4% Obama seat. Likely Democrat

4th District (Red) White Majority (70.8%)
This is the Sierra Nevada Community of Interest Seat. It takes in all the republican precincts in Sacramento County, the bedroom community of El Dorado County, the mountain counties and the ruby red precincts in San Joaquin County. Dan Lungren likely runs here and escapes the electric chair in this 56% McCain District. Safe Republican.

5th District (Gold) Coalition 40.3% White 28% Hispanic 16.8% Asian 9.9% Black, 4.5% Other, .9% NA
This is the Sacramento Urban Core Community of Interest district. Doris Matsui will run in this district and is safe in a district Obama won 68.4% of the vote in.

6th District (Teal) Coalition 49.9% White, 20.9% Hispanic, 14.2% Asian, 9.6% Black, 4.8% Other, .6% NA
This is the Sacramento Inner Ring Community of Interest Seat. Ami Bera, who lost to Dan Lungren in 2010, will run here. Likely Democrat in a 59.9% Obama seat

7th District (Dark Gray) Coalition 49.2% White, 24.7% Hispanic, 12.5% Asian, 9.5% Black, 3.8% Other, .3% NA
This is the Contra Costa-Marin COI district. George Miller has represented most of this area since 1975. Obama won 78 percent of the vote here. Safe Democrat

8th District (Slate Blue) Coalition 42.6% White, 32.4% Asian, 15.7% Hispanic, 5.7% Black, 3.5% Other, .2% Native
This is the San Francisco seat. Minority Leader (and hopefully eventual speaker) Nancy Pelosi represents this district. Obama won 86.2% of the vote here. Safe Democrat

9th District (Cyan) Coalition 35.5% White, 22.2% Asian, 19% Hispanic, 18.6% Black, 4.4% Other, .3% Native
This is the Oakland/Berkeley North Alameda seat. This is the birthplace of the New Left. Barbara Lee will have no problem winning this diverse, 90.4% Obama seat.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2011, 01:14:21 AM »

10th District (Deep Pink) Coalition 45.5% White, 43.2% Hispanic, 5.6% Asian, 2.5% Black, 2.5% Other, .7% Native American
This is the Merced based district that also takes in the republican precincts of Stanislaus County and some Sierra Nevada counties. Jeff Denham lives in this district and likely runs in this district. Obama won by a narrow 50.1-49.9 margin. Meg Whitman however won it. Likely R.

11th District (Chartreuse) Majority White (56%)
This is the East Bay Foothills District. It is the most suburban of the Bay Area districts and the district where a republican (somebody like Tom Campbell could possibly win). However, Jerry McNerney should be safe in this 62.6% Obama district as he has a fairly moderate voting record

12th District (Cornflower Blue) Coalition 43.5% White, 26.8% Asian, 23.6% Hispanic, 3.8% Other, 2.2% Black, .2% Native American
This is the San Mateo based district. Although Anna Eshoo lives here, this will be Jackie Speier’s district. This is a 73.6% Obama district that is safe.

13th District (Dark Salmon) Coalition  35% Asian, 27.2% White, 26.1% Hispanic, 7.2% Black, 4.2% Other, .3% Native American
This is the South Alameda community of interest seat. Pete Stark will run in this 73.6% Obama district and is safe, but will retire sometime before the next census as he was born in 1931

14th (Olive) Majority White (50.9%)
This is the Santa Cruz/East Santa Clara seat. Anna Eshoo lives in the 12th, but likely runs here. This is a safe democrat seat at 74.7% Obama. Next

15th (Dark Orange) Coalition 34.4% Hispanic, 34.3% White, 25.6% Asian, 3% Other, 2.5% Black, .3% Native
This is the South Santa Clara district and Mike Honda’s seat. He probably isn’t too happy it is only a quarter Asian. Regardless safe democrat at 67.4% Obama

16th (Lime) Coalition 34.6% Asian, 30.2% Hispanic, 28.4% White, 3.4% Black, 3.1% Other
This is the North Santa Clara district. Zoe Lofgren should run here although its possible her and Honda swap seats. Safe Democrat at 73.6% Obama

17th (Dark Slate Blue) Coalition 47.1% White, 42.7% Hispanic, 5% Asian, 2.5% Other, 2.4% Black, .4% Native
This is the San Luis Obispo/Monterrey seat. This district is much less safe for Sam Farr at 60.7% Obama, especially as he is very liberal. He may get primaried here but otherwise Likely Dem with Farr; Safe Dem with a moderate/blue dog democrat.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2011, 01:16:22 AM »

18th (Yellow) Coalition 40.3% Hispanic, 34% White, 14.1% Asian, 7.5% Black, 3.6% Other, 5% Native
This is the Stockton/Modesto seat. It takes in the urban core of both areas and Obama got 59.7% of the vote here. Dennis Cardoza lives in the 10th but likely runs here. Safe Dem for Cardoza, Lean Dem for anyone else.

19th (Yellow Green) Coalition 43.3% Hispanic, 42.1% White, 7.5% Asian, 3.9% Black, 2.3% Other, .8% Native
This is the Madera/North Fresno seat. The district probably has a low SSVR and the whites here probably vote like whites from Oklahoma. This explains why McCain won 53.9% of the vote and is Likely/Safe Republican.

20th District (Pink) Majority Hispanic (66%)
This is the Urban Core Fresno Seat. This district is similar to the old 17th district in the 1980s. Although Obama only won 55.9% of the vote here, Jerry Brown did win around 52 percent of the vote here, so this is a low ceiling high floor district I’m guessing. Jim Costa will run here. Lean D

21st District (Maroon) Majority Hispanic (60.4%)
This is the Tulare-Kings seat. It also takes in all of the democratic precincts in Kern County. Despite being majority Hispanic, it gave John McCain 51.3% of the vote as there is probably a low SSVR and a heavily GOP white vote. Devin Nunes has no choice to run here as this is better option than the 20th. Despite being a dem, I will admit he has a bright future as he is still fairly young (although he still would have a hard time winning statewide) and always over performs the national party. Likely R for now; Lean R when Hispanic voting increases.

22nd District (Sienna) Majority White (59.5%)
This is the Bakersfield community of interest seat and is also a republican vote sink. It takes in all of the Anglo (read uber GOP) areas of Bakersfield as well as the most republican precincts in San Bernardino County. John McCain won 65% of the vote here. Kevin McCarthy is safe for life here (as if he wasn’t already).

23rd District (Aquamarine) Majority Hispanic (51%)
This is the Santa Barbara COI seat. People were saying how Lois Capps district is going to be made much less democratic, but Obama still got 63.7% of the vote here. Likely/Safe D, but Capps may retire soon as she is over 70 years old. I’m not sure who the local politicians in the area are who could run here

24th District (Indigo) Majority White (63%)
This is the Ventura County COI seat. It takes in some areas of west LA, but those areas aren’t as dem as I thought as the LA County portion “only” gave Obama 61 percent of the vote. Obama won 54.5% of the vote in this district as a whole. Gallegly has been in office since the 80s so he has represented almost all this area at one point or another so I rate this as tossup/lean R.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2011, 01:16:57 AM »

25th District Coalition 40.6% White, 39.8% Hispanic, 9.9% Black, 6.6% Asian, 2.8% Other, .3% Native American
This is the north LA COI seat. Its hard to believe that in a heavily democrat county like LA, you could make a district this swingy. Obama won 52.1% of the vote here but Whitman won 54.9% of the vote here. Howard McKeon is the incumbent here. Lean R.

26th District Majority Hispanic (50.6%)
This is the northeast San Gabriel COI seat. David Dreier may run here. This district gave Obama 60.2% of the vote. He did represent a lot of this district in the 80s and 90s. If he runs here; tossup/lean D if not likely/safe D.

27th District Majority Hispanic (57.3%)
This is the San Fernando Valley COI seat. What’s interesting is that I thought this was similar to Hollywood in that there are a lot of rich white liberals. Brad Sherman and Howard Berman will face off in a primary here. Winning the primary of course means winning re-election as Obama won 72.3% of the vote here.

28th District Majority Hispanic (89.3%)
This is a new Hispanic majority district that stretches from east LA all the way out to La Puente. This is an open seat that will undoubtedly go democrat as Obama won 78.9% of the vote here.

29th District Coalition 45.8% White, 34.7% Hispanic, 13.4% Asian, 3.2% Black, 2.8% Other, .2% Native
This is the northwest San Gabriel Valley COI seat. Much of this district is in Adam Schiff’s old turf. This area was once represented by archconservative Carlos Moorhead not that long ago. Nonetheless a safe district for Schiff as Obama got 65.8 percent of the vote here.

30th District Majority White (69.3%)
This is the west LA COI seat. This has a huge Jewish population and one of the most democrat white majority districts in the country as Obama won 75 percent of the vote here. Henry Waxman is obviously safe here. He may retire soon as he is already past 70 years old and has been in office since Gerald Ford was president.

31st District Majority Hispanic (51%)
This is the downtown LA COI seat. Xavier Becerra represents this district. He is not well known but his involvement in the super committee may put his name out there. Regardless, he is safe for life in a 80.5% Obama district.

California 32nd District Coalition 38.5% Hispanic, 37.5% Asian, 18.6% White, 3.4% Black, 1.9% Other, .1% Native
This is the central San Gabriel Valley seat. Judy Chu will obviously like having less Hispanics and more Asians in her district as the chance of a primary challenge dramatically decreases. The political composition of the district changes little as Obama won 68.7% of the vote here. Safe Democrat
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2011, 01:17:40 AM »

California 33rd District Coalition 42.5% Hispanic, 28.5% White, 14.9% Black, 10.9% Asian, 3.1% Other, .2% Native
This is the Culver City COI district. Karen Bass lives in this district that gave Obama 81.1% of the vote. Regardless of whether Bass runs here or not, a safe democrat district

California 34th District Majority Hispanic (87.9%)
Are there areas where Hispanics vote as democrat as blacks? This is one of those areas as Obama won 89 percent of the vote here. Lucille Roybal Allard, who was already safe with her family legacy, is even safer here. She may retire soon, as she is nearly 70 years old.

California 35th District Coalition 47.6% Hispanic, 40.6% Black, 4.9% Asian, 4.7% White, 2% Other, .2% Native American
LA blacks have always played a big role in the city’s politics relative to their % in the city as a whole. This was by black influence district where blacks probably make up the majority of the voters as many Hispanics here are illegal. My hope is that Karen Bass, who is an up and coming freshman, comes here and primaries the corrupt Maxine Waters. Whoever would win the primary would be safe as this is the most democratic district in California. Obama won 92.7% here.

California 36th District Coalition 37% White, 33.2% Hispanic, 20.6% Asian, 5.7% Black, 3.3% Other, .2% Native American
This takes in the Palos Verdes Peninsula so it becomes less democratic. Janice Hahn should be OK here, but its possible she could be defeated by a Mark Kirk type republican in a district Obama got 60.1% of the vote in. Lean D

California 37th District Coalition 35.2% White, 32.3% Hispanic, 22.7% Asian, 6.6% Black, 3% Other, .3% Native.
This is the Lakewood/Long Beach COI seat. Is it possible you have two incumbents in the same district and both of them lose in the primary? Me thinks so. Laura Richardson is a corrupt @#$%^ and Linda Sanchez is way too liberal for this district that now takes in some areas of Orange County. Jim Costa (the most conservative CA democrat) nearly lost in a district with a PVI similar to this. BTW, Obama won 58.9% of the vote here

California 38th District Majority Hispanic (55.3%)
This is my Norwalk to Diamond Bar district. Both Grace Napolitano and Gary Miller live here, although I doubt Miller runs here. Napolitano is safe in a 62.2% Obama district. She may retire soon as she is nearly 75 years old.

California 39th District Majority White (63.1%)
This is my Orange County Foothills COI district. Ed Royce actually lives in this district methinks. His district has the same number as the district he represented in the 1990s. Its possible Gary Miller might challenge him in the primary here but Royce would win as he doesn’t have the baggage Miller does. Safe Republican as McCain won 58.7% of the vote here. It was also Meg Whitman’s best district as she won by a 69-31 margin here.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2011, 01:18:24 AM »

California 40th District Coalition 42.5% White, 37.1% Hispanic, 9.9% Black, 7% Asian, 3% Other, .5% Native
This is the East San Bernardino COI district. Jerry Lewis lives here and should run here. His district drops down to 50.4% McCain, but Lewis should be ok here as he has been in congress for 32 years and was in the legislature for ten years before that. He may retire soon as he will be 78 in 2012. Likely D with Lewis, Lean D with anyone else.

California 41st District Majority Hispanic (58%)
This is the West San Bernardino COI seat and an open district. Dreier or Miller might run here where they would have a better shot. But both of them have a lifetime ACU rating in the 90s. Chances are this district goes to a blue dog dem. Lean/Likely Dem.

California 42nd District Majority Hispanic (63.4%)
This looks similar to the old 36th district in the 1980s. Joe Baca will run here and for being in the Inland Empire, is very safe at 69.4% Obama.

California 43rd District Coalition 46.8% Hispanic, 37.1% White, 7.6% Asian, 5.9% Black, 2.4% Other, .3% Native
This is the west Riverside COI seat. Ken Calvert should be happy that the district loses all the heavily democrat precincts in Riverside.  Obama won by a 50.2-49.8 margin. Calvert should be OK, but his ethical issues prevent him from being entrenched. Lean R

California 44th District Majority Hispanic (53.4%)
This is the east Riverside/Imperial COI seat. Interesting fact: Riverside and Imperial haven’t been in the same district since the 1960s, when John Tunney represented that area. Mary Bono Mack lives here and will probably run here. Obama won 52.6% of the vote here. Lean R with MBM and Tossup with anybody else.

California 45th District Coalition 43.9% White, 27.2% Hispanic, 25% Asian, 2.6% Other, 1% Black, .2% Native American
This is the west Orange County COI seat. It looks similar to the 45th district in the 1990s. It also adds in Garden Grove, which is a Vietnamese Republican community. Dana Rohrabacher will run here. McCain won 53.1% of the vote here. Safe Republican.

California 46th District Majority Hispanic (67.8%)
This is my central Orange County COI seat. The republican areas from Garden Grove are put in the 45th and the democrat precincts from Ed Royce’s district are transferred to this district. Obama got 62.1 percent of the vote here.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2011, 01:19:01 AM »

California 47th District Majority White (57.7%)
This is my Gold Coast Orange County COI seat. This is similar to the old 47th district in the 1990s except that the interior hardcore GOP areas like Lake Forest, Orange, Villa Park, and Tustin have been removed. Instead it dips in to take in a small amount of Oceanside in San Diego County. This is one of the districts that usually votes republican but won’t vote for a Rick Perry type. Obama won 51.9 percent of the vote here but Meg Whitman won 59.7 percent of the vote here. John Campbell is the incumbent here. Lean/Likely Republican, Safe Republican if Torie runs here.

California 48th District Majority White (50.5%)
This is my south Riverside district. This is by far the most republican part of the county. It is the only part of the county that is still majority whites and the Hispanics here (31%) are less democratic than the ones in Riverside and Moreno Valley. McCain won 55% of the vote here. Darrell Issa may run here as his Temecula/Murrietta base is here otherwise Dennis Hollingsworth runs here. Safe Republican.

California 49th District Majority White (56.3%)
This is my Central San Diego district. This district is basically where the gays/hipsters/potheads/skateboarders etc all live. Obama won 64.6% of the vote here. This district has the same number as it did in the 90s. Susan Davis is the incumbent here. Safe Democrat.

California 50th District Majority White (56.8%)
This is my north coast district. It is another one of those culturally moderate/liberal republican areas. Barack Obama won 56.3 percent of the vote here but Meg Whitman won 54.1 percent of the vote also. Brian Bilbray is a sane republican but this is still a tough district. In the eight general elections he has run in, he has never gotten above 57 percent. Tossup.

California 51st District Majority Hispanic (57.4%)
This is the south San Diego district. This is the more working class areas of the San Diego area. Bob Filner is the incumbent but is running for mayor. Juan Vargas, who was a pain the ass to Filner for 20 years, finally gets a shot at this seat. Obama got the same % here as he did in the 49th. Safe Democrat

California 52nd District Majority White (61.4%)
This is my northern interior district. Having relatives that live in this area, the general attitude in this district is a general distaste for the people living in the 49th (old 53rd) and 51st districts. Its sort of a “we hate those lazy people (minorities) and potheads and gays coming here and turning our county blue”. The military also has a huge presence here. McCain won 58.1 percent of the vote here. Darrell Issa lives here and so does Duncan Hunter Jr. Issa can move to Temecula and run in the 48th or run here. Should he run here it would be an interesting primary. Issa is one of the wealthiest members of congress and has more seniority and a chairmanship but Duncan Hunter Jr has his dad, who was a big shot in Washington, to come to the rescue. Whoever would win the primary of course would win the general election. Safe Republican.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2011, 10:55:00 AM »

Kind of prohibited by the constitution.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2011, 12:13:34 PM »

well it is going to have to happen eventually. I am a strong believer in one man/one vote and feel that the house is not truly equal unless interstate districts are drawn.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2011, 01:10:30 PM »

well it is going to have to happen eventually. I am a strong believer in one man/one vote and feel that the house is not truly equal unless interstate districts are drawn.

Yeah!  Forget the constitution, we should just do what I want! 
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whaeffner1
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« Reply #11 on: August 19, 2011, 09:02:18 PM »

A few comments on your ideas:
1. Neither party would want to give up control of redistricting to a bunch of unelected officials in Washington, leaving things up to chance.

2. This would be seen as total gerrymandering due to the fact that it eliminates the "communities of interest" that people have with fellow state residents.

3. How could you pass this?  Constitutional amendment?  No way it could even get out of committee hearings in DC, much less the legislatures of the states.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #12 on: September 09, 2011, 07:14:54 PM »

Kind of prohibited by the constitution.

More like totally.  Even if two States were willing to agree to share some interstate districts, it would be prohibited because of the Constitutional requirement that a Representative "be an Inhabitant of that State in which he shall be chosen".
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #13 on: September 09, 2011, 08:50:45 PM »

in legislative reapportionment, the counties aren't given those rights. Why the f--- should the states? You don't have the county board of supervisors redraw legislative districts within their county do you?
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #14 on: September 09, 2011, 09:04:39 PM »

in legislative reapportionment, the counties aren't given those rights. Why the f--- should the states? You don't have the county board of supervisors redraw legislative districts within their county do you?

The county is an administrative jurisdiction created by the state.  The federal government is a compact between states that is created by the states.  In a Constitutional sense, the state government is the most powerful entity.
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Dizzun
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« Reply #15 on: September 13, 2011, 07:32:44 PM »

in legislative reapportionment, the counties aren't given those rights. Why the f--- should the states? You don't have the county board of supervisors redraw legislative districts within their county do you?

The county is an administrative jurisdiction created by the state.  The federal government is a compact between states that is created by the states.  In a Constitutional sense, the state government is the most powerful entity.

Agreed.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2011, 12:07:42 PM »

I kind of like the idea of interstate districts for fun. I'd be intrigued as to how Republican a district you could draw in the area of West Texas/Oklahoma/Kansas/Nebraska etc that is just about nothing but 70%+ McCain coiuties.
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