US House Redistricting: Kansas

[Torie]

Absent legal restrictions, the GOP will want to make CD-03 a couple of percent more GOP if it can.

[Torie]

It's rather amusing that 60% of the geography of the state is being used to neutralize two thirds of little old Wyandotte County.  But then I used close to half of Ohio to contain not so little Columbus.

[Torie]

What does that bring KS-01 down to?

Skimming through county results and doing a quick estimate, it looks to be about 60-65% McCain.

That is correct. You are one smart dude BK.  



The McCain percentage is at least 60%,  and might be as high as 64%.  The new territory KN-01 got exclusive of Wyandotte may be a big less GOP than the territory lost, but it's close. The chart above assumes that the territory lost in exchange for Wyandotte was the same as the old CD percentages. However the territory lost (again exclusive of Wyandotte) has a substantially lower McCain percentage than the territory retained, so the McCain percentage will be higher than that in the chart, offset a bit by about 40,000 net residents being gained, which might be around  57% McCain, and offset a bit more by the turnout in the territory lost probably having a higher turnout rate than Wyandotte. So the chart above should be close to the actual number, but it is more likely higher by a percent or two, and if lower, not by much. My best guess is about 63% McCain, so BK you are just about right on the money!

[Torie]

They are not actually going to do that, are they? The western counties would pitch a fit.

It's the Pubbie plan. They are tired about having to worry about a Dem being elected in that KC adjacent district due to their little socon/establishment Pubbie wars. It was the only CD that could safely take that big of a Dem dump.

[Torie]

OK, it's my turn. Mirror, mirror on the wall, what is the fairest of them all?

To me, it's this one, assuming the idea of making a hash of KS-01 to import excess Pubs into KS-03 to make it nice and Pub safe via KS-01 taking Douglas County (Lawrence), and KS-02 taking Wyandotte, is dead because the western rurals won't stand for it.





But Ms. Jenkins, the incumbent of KS-02, is demanding that Manhattan remain in her district, which creates problems. One way to do it, without making a hash of KS-04, is the map below. The negative is that it makes KS-02 rather uncomfortably Democratic (yes, Pubs outside KS-03 are obviously spoiled). Pittsburgh, KS may not be as bad for the Pubs as Pittsburgh, PA, but relatively speaking, it's still a bad place when KS-02 already has Topeka and Lawrence.





Giving Ms. Jenkins Manhattan without making KS-02 as Dem (Pittsburgh goes into KS-04), unfortunately does make a hash of KS-04. The incumbent there would not be happy with the shape of this ugly duckling, all for the purpose of taking in Pittsburgh which he doesn't want anyway.





So, I can see now why everyone is at each other's throats, and why Dorothy may not want to go back home to Kansas even if she could. Someone should tell Jenkins that Manhattan, KS just isn't as fun as the one the Dutch bought from the Native Americans for $24.00, and she should just get over her fixation. Really.

[Torie]

Hacking up Southeast Kansas is almost as frowned upon (by politicians with connections to there) as hacking up KC or Topeka or Wichita. It's a well-defined region.

One thing that surprises me is that Jenkins was very much considered the moderate candidate in the 2008 primary... you wouldn't think that given the political battle lines now.

Southeastern Kansas (Baxter Springs) is where my great grandfather went from Jackson County, Indiana (a place he described as one where nobody amounted to much and never would), in his covered wagon with his new bride to claim his 160 acres under the Homestead Act as a Civil War Veteran. Great Grandfather was on Sherman's March to the Sea carrying two bullets in him acquired from all that action in Tennessee which he retained until his death in 1933 at age 93, in the rear guard as sharpshooter, trying to pick off the men in gray, who were trying to pick off them. My grandmother asked how good his aim was; he said well, more than once, hostile bullets ceased to fly after he took aim and pulled the trigger. That is all that he would say about it. They didn't eat much; there wasn't much around to eat for that rear guard, where the land had been "cleansed" of anything productive.

Anyway, as to SE Kansas, Baxter Springs was hell. Two of his first three children died there. There were some Native Americans around that did not appreciate the interlopers. So he finally decamped to Winterset, IA, and bought 10 arable acres for $12,000 an acre in today's dollars, next door to where his brother had a rather larger farm (how his brother got there is unknown, my grandmother never talked about that, and I discovered this all looking at old deeds in the Madison County Courthouse last year). Finally, his bonus for serving as a Veteran arrived rather late in 1877 (grandmother didn't mention that either, but I connected the dots, and figured out what must have happened), and with that money, he bought the bottom land just south of Winterset, of which I am now a proud one sixth owner. That land made him "rich" as it were.

It's kind of fun to part a part of American history that way. It comes alive, up close and personal.

Here by the way is a snap of my great grandparents on their 50th wedding anniversary, in front of the home they bought from a chap along with the upland meadows that he owned around 1916 or something (I discovered that too from examining the deeds). The home was built in 1846, and is on the historical register. Sadly, it is now in disrepair inside. Alas, another project for me. My goal is to restore it before I assume room temperature. It deserves it. It's right on John Wayne drive two blocks south of the square, next door to John Wayne's birthplace.

[Torie]

Baxter Springs, eh? Referenced in one of the greatest songs ever.

Ruth Ann and Lynn come down from Baxter Springs
That's one hell raisin' town way up in Southeastern Kansas

Thank you. Something good finally came from the place I guess.

[Torie]

Interesting map. But does "Baxter Springs" really want to be tied to the western rurals via that narrow corridor that you drew, and visa versa ?  Do the incumbents in KS-01 and KS-02 really want all that much new territory? (The incumbent in KS-01 by the way, lives near Dodge City; I checked when I axed Emporia from KS-01 just to make sure I was not stepping in it, and KS-01 seems to have a veto power here, even if it leaves other CD's rather more marginal.) Does Jenkins to get her blessed Manhattan, really want a CD which is that Dem as the quid pro quo (and she talks about her "eastern KS CD, not her NE Kansas CD)?  Sure the KS-03 folks will be happy.  Where are the votes in the legislature?  What is it that each faction really wants?  So many questions, so little time. It is amazing in a state this Pub, that we are having this battle. It's all very odd. It is as if a bunch of spoiled children are having a difficult time playing together in the sandbox.

Yes, your family journey does rather track mine. All you need is the covered wagon and Civil War stories, and we might be related.

[Torie]

Interesting map. But does "Baxter Springs" really want to be tied to the western rurals via that narrow corridor that you drew, and visa versa ?

Based on my visit there, I would think that Baxter Springs would rather be tied to Dodge City than to Lawrence and Topeka.

In the next decade, CD 3 is most at risk politically for the GOP. As inner KC suburbs mature, they'll lose the hard R pattern, like others before them. It's more important to bring that R number up there than in any other district. So, I do think that a trade of SE KS for Manhattan and some Dems should be a good compromise.

Now you are assuming folks are rational in Kansas. I don't see any evidence of that myself.

I take your point, but it is not as if the KC burbs are going to expand outside the boundaries of KS-03 any time soon (there is some vacant land between the housing tracts and the county lines). Usually the pattern is that for a metro area of some dynamic growth, it grows outside the boundaries of the CD, which is what makes the inner burb CD more Dem as the exurbs expand beyond those lines. The Kansas City metro area really doesn't qualify. However, the metro area as a whole might be trending Dem. Most metro areas are. 

[Torie]

My mother's younger sister moved to NYC to take up acting, my mother joined her and got a job working for my Dad as his secretary, intrigued by his cleverly worded ad, and after she left right before getting fired to join the Red Cross and go to England right before the end of WW II, and upon her return to her home in Davenport, Iowa (grandmother married this guy she met in college who set up his medical practice there), my Dad flew to Chicago to meet up with her, and wooed her for 3 days until she said yes, she would marry him (he thought her talents lay elsewhere than in typing), and then he was introduced to a guy who owned a record company in LA by his older brother, who did film special effects (he got his start due to their uncle being a film director after having started as a stunt man when films were made on Long Island) and befriended the record guy back when, when he owned a radio shop, and over the years my Dad entertained the record guy when he came to NYC on business, and finally the record guy persuaded him to come to LA to start an advertising agency, with the record company and one other company that the record guy secured for him as his clients,  and then my Dad a couple of years later joined the record company, and I was born about 4 years later and grew up in LA.

Kind of complicated isn't it?  

[Torie]

Here is the map the RNC might draw (using Muon2's approach to drawing KS-03). No doubt something like it has been drawn - and rejected. 

[Torie]

LOL.  Memory is the second thing to go.

Anyway, I like this map better. I like squares, where possible.  I do that nasty chop of the county east of Wichita in honor of respecting its metro area.

[Torie]

Hutchinson is for some reason not part of the Wichita metro according to the Census Bureau definition (but rather forms its own Metro), and is also already included in the 1st district.

I don't care what the census bureau thinks. Anyway, this appeared to me to be the best cut, after mixing and matching counties back and forth. I don't like chopping in half tiny counties.

[Torie]

Hacking up Southeast Kansas is almost as frowned upon (by politicians with connections to there) as hacking up KC or Topeka or Wichita. It's a well-defined region.

One thing that surprises me is that Jenkins was very much considered the moderate candidate in the 2008 primary... you wouldn't think that given the political battle lines now.

Southeastern Kansas (Baxter Springs) is where my great grandfather went from Jackson County, Indiana (a place he described as one where nobody amounted to much and never would), in his covered wagon with his new bride to claim his 160 acres under the Homestead Act as a Civil War Veteran. Great Grandfather was on Sherman's March to the Sea carrying two bullets in him acquired from all that action in Tennessee which he retained until his death in 1933 at age 93, in the rear guard as sharpshooter, trying to pick off the men in gray, who were trying to pick off them. My grandmother asked how good his aim was; he said well, more than once, hostile bullets ceased to fly after he took aim and pulled the trigger. That is all that he would say about it. They didn't eat much; there wasn't much around to eat for that rear guard, where the land had been "cleansed" of anything productive.

Anyway, as to SE Kansas, Baxter Springs was hell. Two of his first three children died there. There were some Native Americans around that did not appreciate the interlopers. So he finally decamped to Winterset, IA, and bought 10 arable acres for $12,000 an acre in today's dollars, next door to where his brother had a rather larger farm (how his brother got there is unknown, my grandmother never talked about that, and I discovered this all looking at old deeds in the Madison County Courthouse last year). Finally, his bonus for serving as a Veteran arrived rather late in 1877 (grandmother didn't mention that either, but I connected the dots, and figured out what must have happened), and with that money, he bought the bottom land just south of Winterset, or which I am now a proud one sixth owner. That land made him "rich" as it were.

It's kind of fun to part a part of American history that way. It comes alive, up close and personal.

That is truly fascinating. You see, my great grandfather along with his parents and brothers lived in Sheridan township KS in 1880 in the same Cherokee county as Baxter Springs. They originally also came from IN, however it was from Clinton county up near Kokomo, and they resided in MN for a few years in the 1870's before heading to KS. To continue the parallel my great grandmother and my grandfather eventually moved from MN to IA (Linn Co). Spooky.

When I was showing Cherokee county to my family on our 2008 road trip, I found it was home to the world's largest coal shovel, 16 stories high.

Anyway, to avoid splitting SE KS, why not give it to the western CD as I suggested earlier in the thread? The Dems can be split by putting Lawrence with OP and KCKS with Manhattan. Both those CDs are then about 51.5% McCain.

OK, to synthesize all the fine work on this that we have all collectively done ( ), based on reading this, I agree that the map will be one of two types. One will be like you have drawn Mike, except that given the 1) Hutchinson contretemps, and 2) not "Deming" up KS-02 even if the extra Pubs should be moved into KS-03 from an RNC perspective, and after looking up what "SE Kansas" meant (yes, it is very much a real region and state of mind and it means the 9 corner counties), the map will either be something very much like this (SE KS is kept together, KS-01 is kept rural (with Hutchinson in it and not crowded in to boot, so that Speaker O'Neil can run for the seat someday or whatever, and who might particularly love it because he is the "middle man between SE Kansas and the western Kansas), KS-02 is not made materially more Dem (it's 53.5%-44.8% McCain), so the only potential departure from meeting everyone's list of "demands" is that SE KS is moved from KS-02 to KS-01).  Is doing the CD switch of SE Kansas some cardinal sin in and of itself or not?  



or this (it looks prettier, but maybe putting McPherson in KS-04 is its own little sin, and a bridge too far for some faction or person who's a player):



Absent this kind of map, the other option is that we get something very much like the "clean map" that I drew (see below), the State Senate drew and passed, and that the courts will draw if no map is passed. I think we are down to one or the other. It is fortunate for the Pubs that KS-03 needs to lose 50,000 in population, which kicks it out of Lawrence and Douglas County, and instead picking up 10,000 people in the county south of Douglas. Absent that, the downside for the Pub squabbling would be that a court would draw KS-03 as including Johnson, Douglas and Wyandotte, which would make it hyper marginal.

[Torie]

Is it possible to go south of Wichita to connect western and SE Kansas?

As they've had to come east, they've gone north of Wichita rather than splitting Wichita, and they've had to keep going further east to make room for the Wichita district.

Hey, I like it!



In fact, I like it so much that I sent an email off to Speaker O'Neil attaching it, and commending its virtues and seeming meeting of all of the little constraints out there that have folks in gridlock.  Kudos! 

[Torie]

Here's the way I would do the southern link. I think the link is best as whole counties, and I only grab the city of Mulvane south of Wichita to keep it whole. CD 3 is 50.5% McCain and CD 2 is 52.8%. The maximum deviation is 28 in this map.

Here is another version, which tries to respond where possible (I couldn't help him on the south corridor counties to the great KS SE, home of the ancestors of us both with the biggest shovel on the planet, but I did my cut there just to show my heart was in the right place) to the onanistic catawaulings of the incumbent in KS-04 (he had on his j'accuse list the abandonment of the good folks of Kingman from the Wichita family on which they depend). The State Senate seems to freak over splitting the KS metro area, so your little chop of Wyandotte might cause some contretemps (but yes, it does pump up the Pub numbers in KS-03, bless you, so if it sells with the "Torie" faction in the State Senate, that is just grand). KS in short is well - unusual. I gave a link to Speaker O'Neal to this page or the one before, so maybe he will read all this stuff.



Anyway, think about it, and maybe we can send another email with a final product, with your KS-03 "adjustment."  I already sent my first one. He is going to make another attempt next week to cut the Gordian Knot, so the time is now. Not of course that he really needs our "help." But one never knows. Bear in mind, that another factor, is that the farther KS-04 extends from Wichita up towards the north and NE outside of its "zone," the more there will be complaints from those roped in I suspect (e.g., Dickinson).


Here is a potential chop of Wyandotte (with Miami made whole into KS-03), which alas chops the city of KS, KS, itself (which can't be avoided even if you cut out the burbs first, so don't chop the burbs, but chop the city, but that is going to cause controversy). It does however move the ball a point in the Pub direction for KS-03, versus no chop of Wyandotte at all. Can it sell?

[Torie]

I was concerned about chopping into the black community in KSC, KS, but your chop isn't too egregious in that regard, Muon2, and picks up a few Pub basis points, so I went for it. However, KS-04 I don't think going that far east is going to fly, taking in those two counties that are currently in KS-02, that are really part of its "core," (exclusive if SE KS, which we are excising, to shore it up in exchange for its sucking up Douglas County and now part of KSC). Whether KS-02 is Pub enough for everyone but the State Senate moderates with this approach remains to be seen. Heck, it may not be even for them.  It is 20 basis points less Pub than the State Senate plan and what a court might draw (see the map at the bottom).

Anyway, putting the KS-02 20 Pub basis points issue aside, here is my volley back to you. I did follow your approach to put the county south of Miami in KS-01, for the sake of preserving rectangular shapes, and because it fits in just fine with SE KS.

Hey, as an aside, I "found" a Minneapolis, KS. So now we have Manhattan, Pittsburgh, and Minneapolis. I wonder how many other such towns there are like that in the state. My favorite KS town of course is "Liberal," which isn't "liberal" at all. I wonder what its provenance is.

If this is a go, I will email it to the Speaker, with the screen shot and the drf file. He will probably think I am a pretty obsessive creative (obviously true), and laugh, but what the heck. If you want your name associated with any of this as a fellow state legislator lending "gravitas" to this all, let me know.

[Torie]

Here is one other alternative Muon2. No change in the KS-02 partisan numbers however. Do you like this one better?  The negative is that Elk County was previously in KS-04, so by moving it to KS-01, it is one more change element which seems to freak people out, even if the population numbers (like in Kingman), are de minimus.

Addendum: Oh this has another county chop, which sucks, so I don't think so. Do you agree?

[Torie]

Here is the version that does away with the extra chop. It does make the Sumner County chop uglier, but does pick up the county seat for KS-04, which would please the incumbent. I suspects he thinks it is a commuter exurb, if he thinks Kingman is. You do know Sumner County produces the most wheat of any county in the U.S (or did when I read that 20 years or so ago, I assume. Just another bit of trivia for you.

[Torie]

I think I will go with this then - yet another version.  It just "feels" right, minimizing the wanderings of KS-04.

[Torie]

Just had a go for a bit of fun. Using Daves Redistricting is rather time-consuming though. Is there a way of selecting whole counties at a time? And what are the size restraints? Is +/- 142 close enough?

No, put if you push down shift and "z" when the coloring feature is turned off (or control and z, or command and z, depending on your computer, you can draw a box, and color vast swaths of territory at once.  When done, do the check contiguity utility for each CD, because there are these tiny precincts that are very hard to see with the naked eye - sometimes impossible - and Kansas for example is loaded with them. Good luck.

[Torie]

Well, the rub is that way of doing it makes KS-02 "too" Dem, and it may make KS-03 even more Dem than it picking up the extra 11,000 in population that it needs by going south in Miami County (by 20-30 basis points or something).

[Torie]

So if KS-1 can't take SE Kansas, and it can't take Manhattan, and it can't take KCK, and it can't split Wichita or Topeka, then the only thing left for it to take is Lawrence, no?  The only state legislators that would annoy are Democrats, I'm going to guess.

Kind of like this one, although KS-01 takes most of Wyandotte rather than Douglas, which crashed and burned. I think shifting Salina to KS-02 is a problem, as well as KS-01 going into the NE corner of that state to grab Dems.

[Torie]

I like it. Very good. I made a few adjustments to better attend to local sensibilities.

[Torie]

Here is some more chatter about KS CD redistricting. Given Jenkins' list of no's (in public at least if not maybe in private), to wit Manhattan in, Topeka in, and SE KS in, that leaves only Lawrence not being added to KS-02 (but to KS-01) per dpmapper's idea.