US House Redistricting: Kansas (user search)
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  US House Redistricting: Kansas (search mode)
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Kansas  (Read 26912 times)
minionofmidas
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« on: December 14, 2010, 11:51:18 AM »

Wichita won't like it. Kansas City is, of course, essentially being buttraped; but they vote Democratic anyways. Then again, West Kansas might not like it either.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2011, 10:39:00 AM »

An incumbent who tried very, very hard to lose in what should not have been a losable district, losing in a year when individual incumbents' quality (or lack thereof) mattered unusually much?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2011, 01:06:21 PM »

I would laugh out of court anyone who implied a map linking KC with the Colorado line does not include a "ridiculous state-length bacon strip".
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2012, 05:19:48 AM »

The early leaks didn't do the gerry plan any good, I think. Much of the West Kansas delegation was up in arms against it.
That said, too early to pop the champagne presumably?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #4 on: February 17, 2012, 06:43:02 AM »
« Edited: February 17, 2012, 07:24:55 AM by Minion of Midas »

Ah, the House leadership hasn't given up on it yet then.

It's probably not long until the Kansas state lege GOP heads the Alaskan way, the way things are going.

The State Senate passed its map, 23-17. That's actually 15 Republicans and all 8 Democrats in the aye side...
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #5 on: February 17, 2012, 07:38:28 AM »
« Edited: February 17, 2012, 07:41:31 AM by Minion of Midas »

Two more ridiculous plans state house members have come up with...

I guess that's about what it takes to keep Manhattan in the 2nd district. Proposed by a Republican from just east of Manhattan.

What's this supposed to be? A Johnson-hating Democrat's wet dream? Proposed by a Wichita Democrat.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #6 on: February 17, 2012, 04:38:14 PM »

It's not *particularly* ridiculous and I don't *particularly* dislike it.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #7 on: February 17, 2012, 05:28:51 PM »

The Manhattan metro is split (as also under the current map - Junction City and Manhattan would be better off together. If someone believes they ought to be in the 2nd together, fine with me. Except it does require taking the 1st all the way to either the northeast or the southeast corner.) The Wichita metro is also split in that proposal, and that is new. Though it's not a very consequential split, slicing off one satellite-town-dominated county of 20k people.

Honestly, if you want to keep Manhattan out of a reasonably designed first district... go repopulate the High Plains.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #8 on: February 18, 2012, 07:09:07 AM »

Now you're splitting the KC Metro three ways (and that's just in Kansas). Evil
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #9 on: February 18, 2012, 08:25:09 AM »

Hence the devil.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #10 on: March 19, 2012, 11:29:35 AM »

The House redistricting committee has passed a map, by a vote of 11-11 with a tiebreaking vote in favor by the Speaker.

Guess what it looks like.



That's right, they not only moved Wyandotte (almost all of it rather than all, apparently - I read comments that it's "split") all the way to the first but Manhattan as well.
On the plus side their fourth is actually minimum change. Grin
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #11 on: March 19, 2012, 12:15:43 PM »

So what are the odds that this map passes the full House, or even the Senate?
I don't know / unless I am exceedingly mistaken absolute dead zero. Then again, the chances the Senate's map passes the full House aren't much higher, I suppose.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #12 on: March 19, 2012, 12:50:29 PM »

So with GOP supermajorities in both chambers what's the big hangup?
In practice it's a three-party system and no party has a majority in either chamber. You do remember anything you've ever heard about the Republican Party in Kansas, don't you?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #13 on: March 19, 2012, 04:22:41 PM »

Don't know the date, but in june.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2012, 04:53:59 AM »

Update. The above House map has died on the House floor. (Seems that it wasn't actually put to a vote as the result would have been to embarassing? Or maybe I just can't find a news article about the vote itself right now.)
The leadership then presented an alternative map that kept a reasonable 3rd and split Topeka between the 1st and 2nd. This was passed, don't know by how much, but killed in the Senate 17-23.
The House leadership then presented a version that would have drawn all of the Southeast corner into the 4th and apparently taken both the 1st and 2nd into the Wichita exurbs. This went down in flames on the House floor 48-76. (Maybe that was the whole point - showing the waverers, "see? This is the only alternative if you want a watertight 3 safe R, 1 lean R for Yoder and not utterly butcher KC or Topeka"?)
Then they presented a barely amended version of the splitting Topeka map - at least the last two of these  went through the Redistricting Committee along identical 11-11-speaker-breaks-tie lines. Btw. This second version looks like this:



It passed the House, and died 14-24-2 abstentions in the Senate.

Some Topeka Dem House member summarizing the situation... "It’ll be one of [Speaker O'Neal's] maps or no map. It’s looking like no map."
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #15 on: March 31, 2012, 09:32:39 AM »

For some reason I cannot fathom, all plans introduced to the Kansas legislature have cutesy names.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #16 on: March 31, 2012, 03:49:03 PM »

Hacking up Southeast Kansas is almost as frowned upon (by politicians with connections to there) as hacking up KC or Topeka or Wichita. It's a well-defined region.

One thing that surprises me is that Jenkins was very much considered the moderate candidate in the 2008 primary... you wouldn't think that given the political battle lines now.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #17 on: March 31, 2012, 04:15:00 PM »

Baxter Springs, eh? Referenced in one of the greatest songs ever.

Ruth Ann and Lynn come down from Baxter Springs
That's one hell raisin' town way up in Southeastern Kansas

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minionofmidas
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« Reply #18 on: April 01, 2012, 03:21:36 AM »
« Edited: April 01, 2012, 03:40:39 AM by the only minion for you »

They remember the 2006 election. It swung far less than the rural bits and (the county it's in. The city itself presumably not) actually voted for Ryun. While Topeka's Shawnee County provided almost all of Boyda's four point victory margin, that does mean she actually (barely) won the district outside of Shawnee.

The Kansas Map (with split counties being combined by party)



Overall:
Republicans - 449548 (54%, 2 seats)
Democrats - 360356 (44%, 2 seats)
Reform - 16213 (2%)

Didn't think that Boyda won so many little counties, did you?

(Also, guess where John Doll's house is! Doll being the KS-01 candidate who got blown out by Moran.)
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #19 on: April 01, 2012, 02:07:50 PM »

Hutchinson is for some reason not part of the Wichita metro according to the Census Bureau definition (but rather forms its own Metro), and is also already included in the 1st district.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #20 on: April 01, 2012, 03:06:44 PM »
« Edited: April 01, 2012, 03:57:06 PM by Catmuslim »

What matters, I suppose, is what the people of Hutchinson (and Wichita) think of it*. Which I don't know, really. The Census Bureau definition is quite technical and largely about commuters to the central county as a percentage of total residents with a job - which can lead to formerly wholly rural counties being included in a definition more quickly than counties with an older urban core. They do consider it sufficiently separate that the joint TV market is referred to as the Wichita-Hutchinson Market, not the Wichita Market.

*both in theory for finding the best map - and in practice, as Speaker O'Neal is from Hutchinson. Grin Which I suppose means the fact that none of the maps he's let out of committee have included a transfer of Hutchinson says something about where the town wants to be. I'd personally go with least change for CD4 if I were a judge drawing the map.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #21 on: April 07, 2012, 04:01:57 AM »

Maybe Jenkins really wants Lawrence libruls to stay in KS-3, and to be given some posh suburban areas in southern Johnson County instead that'll be also great for fundraising.
Not that she should or will get that, of course.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #22 on: April 07, 2012, 05:01:01 AM »

As a thought experiment: Strict minimal change map, as Republican as semi-realistically possible.



Jenkins is at 53.3% R. There's but a tiny sliver of Lawrence city in the 3rd, and its portion of Douglas went for Obama by just 0.3 percentage points.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #23 on: April 07, 2012, 07:11:50 AM »

The Geary exception to that principle is carried over from the current map. I didn't change the boundary there.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #24 on: April 07, 2012, 07:46:36 AM »

The Geary exception to that principle is carried over from the current map. I didn't change the boundary there.

Ah yes. For some reason they split both Geary and Nemeha 10 years ago.
Mostly it's Fort Riley, though I'm not sure all the populated smaller-area precincts are within the Fort? Anyways, the Fort as a CoI is split anyhow.
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