How would you vote ...

[SPQR]

Watching today's youth I am pretty convinced that civil service could only improve their mindset.

Typical. You think something is good for someone else and you want to force people to act according to your views. Is it such an awful thing to let people decide for themselves what's good for them without the state dictating it?

Yeah.

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll:



48% Abolish the Draft
44% Keep the Draft
  8% Undecided

[Tender Branson]

So, summer is over and even though the SPÖ has said before the summer that they prefer a referendum on the draft after the 2013 elections because the ÖVP is the party of "No" and blocking everything, there's now new development in the case, with Chancellor Faymann (SPÖ) arguing that he now wants the draft abolished by referendum "as soon as possible". Defense Minister Darabos (SPÖ) even wants to introduce measures within the army now to test abolishing it. The ÖVP is now going wild about this. Says the newspaper Standard:

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[Tender Branson]

2 new polls out, one in favor of abolishing the draft (OGM) and one in favor of keeping it (Market):



Standard/Market:

50% Keep the draft
44% Abolish it

http://derstandard.at/1314652872379/Wehrpflicht-Nur-jeder-Dritte-glaubt-dass-Berufsheer-kommt

[RogueBeaver]

Abolish, though I would also want an escape clause for reinstatement in case of a major war.

[Tender Branson]

Gallup today has 58% for draft abolition.

[Tender Branson]

Edited the poll because the referendum will take place in January 2013 now.

The next polls should be interesting.

[Tender Branson]

The last poll about the issue was from July by Karmasin (sample = 500):

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56% for a professional voluntary army
35% for retaining the current draft system

I think this will narrow until January ...

[Tender Branson]

Here's a map of the systems in the EU + Switzerland:



Only Austria, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Greece and Cyprus still have a draft.

And Switzerland.

The draft time is shortest in Denmark with 4 months and longest in Cyprus with 26 months.

[後援会]

Why does Austria even need an army? I suppose, a small army would be useful for participating in UN/EU/NATO missions and for disaster relief and what not. But a drafted army? Is there any reason? At all?

[Zanas]

I would guess this dates back to the days when Austria was just next to the Iron Curtain. Somehow they haven't found the time or motivation to withdraw it until now.

[Tender Branson]

Why does Austria even need an army? I suppose, a small army would be useful for participating in UN/EU/NATO missions and for disaster relief and what not. But a drafted army? Is there any reason? At all?

I guess it has to do with costs: A drafted army and a drafted civil service is cheap. Which is also the reason why ultimately I think that Austrians will vote to retain the draft system in January.

Everyone I've talked to recently had concerns that if the draft is abolished, it would also mean the end for the cheap civil servants that help out the Red Cross and nursing homes etc. and are a vital part of the social system.

If I remember correctly, support for the draft system increased in the polls when the abolition of the civil service was also brought up. It's a tough sell and the ÖVP will campaign hard to include the civil service question into the referendum text ...

[Tender Branson]

First poll by "Gallup" for "Ö24" after the referendum date was announced shows a reallllllly tight race, just as I expected:

51% for professional voluntary army
49% for retaining the draft system

Sample = 400, conducted 28.8. and 29.8.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Volksbefragung-51-Prozent-fuer-Berufsheer/76929385

53% of women support the professional army, while 55% of men support the draft.

52% of Vienna voters support the professional army, while Lower Austria has 51% for the draft.

Styria and Carinthia voters are strongly for the draft.

65% of SPÖ voters support the professional army, while 64% of ÖVP voters support the draft.

And while the FPÖ leadership clearly support the draft, 51% of FPÖ voters support the professional army (this will change I guess, looks like a massive Bradley-effect to me).

Also:

Turnout in the referendum looks to be huge and parliamentary election-like: 75% of those polled say they will vote in the referendum, while only 10% say they won't. 14% are undecided.

[Diouf]

In Denmark very few actually go there without choosing it themselves. The intake that started in August 2011 included about 2100 people , and 96 % of them chose voluntarily to enter this 4-month military service. This high rate of volunteers certainly has something do with the economic crisis, so some will choose this if they can get a regular job. The salary is decent enough.

[Tender Branson]

In Denmark very few actually go there without choosing it themselves. The intake that started in August 2011 included about 2100 people , and 96 % of them chose voluntarily to enter this 4-month military service. This high rate of volunteers certainly has something do with the economic crisis, so some will choose this if they can get a regular job. The salary is decent enough.

How is the Danish system actually considered a "draft", when only 100 people are actually drafted and the rest is there voluntarily ? Out of 30.000 Danish men who reach the draftable age every year ?

[Diouf]

How is the Danish system actually considered a "draft", when only 100 people are actually drafted and the rest is there voluntarily ? Out of 30.000 Danish men who reach the draftable age every year ?

There are two intakes a year, the other one is a bit bigger (2900 people in 2011), so around 200 people are actually drafted, but, as you say, still not a lot considering that there are 30.000-35.000 Danish men draftable every year.

Historically way fewer volunteered, in the 70's it was about fifty percent and as late as 2006, the rate of volunteers was "only" 76 %. So it's only in the last five years that the rate of volunteers have been 87 % or higher, and you could question how much of a draft it really is now. Apart from the financial crisis, other reasons for the high rate of volunteers are a reduction of the number of people needed (from 5660 in 2006 to 5067 in 2011) and a higher rate of women (3 % in 2006, 10 % in 2011). Women are not a part of the draft, so when a woman enters the military service, she fills a spot that would otherwise have been filled by a drafted man.

The centre-left government would like to suspend the draft and only take in volunteers, you can't abolish it without changing the constitution which is very difficult in Denmark, but the current agreement on defence includes three opposition parties (Liberals, Conservative People's Party, and Danish People's Party) who are not very keen to do that. The agreement runs until 2014, and it's considered very bad taste to brake these agreements, so changes probably will not happen until at the earliest 2014, but currently the government's supporting party The Red-Green Alliance are opposed to the plans as well so a suspension seems unlikely. Despite wanting to suspend the draft, the government will like to keep the day where mental, and health tests are made, and the different kinds of military service presented. It's at this day that you, as it is now, inform whether you want to join voluntarily or want to be included in the draft. Furthermore, the government would like to make it obligatory for women to attend this day as well; a proposal which is backed by the opposition parties.

[Zanas]

We have that day here in France, called the "Defence preparation calling day", it's kind of boring but allows to get some statistics about every 18-year-old, boys and girls, and see if some slipped through the whole scholar system without learning proper reading or writing (and there always are some too). We stopped drafting in 1996, one of the very few things Chirac is known positively for...

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll shows a strong majority for keeping the draft:

61% draft
39% professional voluntary army

In the same poll in May, 62% supported a professional voluntary army and only 38% the draft.

http://derstandard.at/1345165913008/Mehrheit-glaubt-nicht-mehr-an-Wechsel-zu-einem-Berufsheer

Every time the end of the popular civil service comes up, support for the draft increases dramatically. I don't see how Austrians will vote to end the draft considering this ...

[Franzl]

Freedom haters.

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖVP government has now officially agreed to hold the referendum on the future of the draft system on January 20, 2013.

The government has also agreed that there will be no single YES/NO question.

Instead the voters will have 2 simple questions on the ballot:

SPÖ-favored question:

"Sind Sie für die Einführung eines Berufsheeres und eines bezahlten freiwilligen Sozialjahres ?"

"Are you in favor of implementing a professional voluntary army and a paid voluntary social year ?"

ÖVP-favored question:

"Sind Sie für die Beibehaltung der allgemeinen Wehrpflicht und des Zivildienstes ?"

"Are you in favor of keeping the mandatory military draft and civil service ?"

http://derstandard.at/1345166494569/Regierung-einigt-sich-auf-Text-fuer-Volksbefragung-zur-Wehrpflicht

About 6.5 million Austrians aged 16+ will be eligible to vote.

[Tender Branson]

Here's an English article about the referendum:

Will Austrian conscription get marching orders?



Austria is to hold a referendum on whether to abolish its long tradition of compulsory military service for young men. But there’s little public or political consensus on the issue.

Austria's Defence Minister, Norbert Darabos, wants a professional army made up of well paid volunteers rather than poorly paid conscripts.

"The questions should be put: Professional army - yes or no. Retaining general conscription - yes or no. In my opinion that's sufficient," said Darabos.

But many disagree with the minister including most of the army's top brass. In fact, the chief of staff is in open conflict with the minister on the issue. Author and defence expert Conrad Seidl says the Bundesheer, as the army is called, is mostly happy with the status quo.

"The Bundesheer has a long tradition," says Seidl. "For over 50 years now they have had a conscript system, and a large part of the Austrian military is composed of reserves or, as we call them, militias."

Civic service

But the impact of the referendum will be felt beyond the military. In recent years more and more young people have chosen civic service as an alternative to military service. Charities, especially the ambulance services, have come to rely on those who choose this option. They don't want civic service thrown out with the military service bath water. Noemi Müller, the chairperson of Austrian Catholic Youth, opposes military service but says feelings are mixed about ending compulsory civic service as well.

"I think many of them would be grateful because they can study right after A levels and they won't lose a year," she says. "But some will also be sad because civic service is also a chance to do something for the Austrian people and give something back."

Austria has also come to rely on its army of conscripts in times of natural disaster. They're called in to rescue people from avalanches and flooded homes.



Only the beginning

A fierce political battle is raging over the issue, and the opposing camps are divided between left and right. The Social Democrats and Greens prefer the professional army option; the conservatives are flying the flag for conscription. Though there are many on both sides who are not in step with their leaders.

The one point most people agree on, is that if conscription is to be stood down in the upcoming referendum, some form of social work should continue. What people can't agree on is whether it should be compulsory or voluntary. The battle over conscription is just beginning. It promises to be the most divisive in Austria's recent political history.

http://www.dw.de/dw/article/0,,16225294,00.html

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll:

50% keep draft
50% abolish draft

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120908_OTS0048/oesterreich-umfrage-zur-volksbefragung-befuerworter-und-gegner-der-wehrpflicht-gleichauf-5050

That poll is about what I think at the moment (I'll probably decide in the voting booth, because I'm also 50-50 right now) ...

[Franzl]

New Gallup poll:

50% keep draft
50% abolish draft

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120908_OTS0048/oesterreich-umfrage-zur-volksbefragung-befuerworter-und-gegner-der-wehrpflicht-gleichauf-5050

That poll is about what I think at the moment (I'll probably decide in the voting booth, because I'm also 50-50 right now) ...

Cheap slave labour is attractive, hm?

[Tender Branson]

New Profil poll shows a slight majority for the draft:

45-43 for the draft

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120915_OTS0002/profil-umfrage-mehrheit-gegen-abschaffung-der-wehrpflicht

[Tender Branson]

New OGM poll for the "Kurier" shows a slight 46-40 majority for abolishing the draft:



Allthough, among the 41% who say they will "definitely go voting on January 20, 2013 and who already have a solid opinion on the issue", the draft leads by 51-49.