Politico: Obama trails generic Republican by 1; leads actual Republicans

[Mr. Morden]

"On Dec. 3-8, Penn Schoen Berland surveyed 1000 people in the US with a representative distribution of Americans and 225 Washington, DC elites.  Margin of error is 3.1% and 6.53% respectively."

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM187_politicoreport.html

From the sample representing all voters:

general election matchups:

Generic Republican 38%
Obama 37%

Obama 48%
Palin 33%

Obama 40%
Romney 33%

Obama 39%
Pawlenty 22%

Obama 40%
Huckabee 34%

Obama 40%
Barbour 19%

favorable / unfavorable among all voters:

Obama 47 / 48%
Biden 35 / 45%
H. Clinton 55 / 38%
Palin 36 / 53%
Huckabee 32 / 30%
Romney 29 / 33%
Barbour 10 / 20%
Pawlenty 11 / 18%

Should Julian Assange be prosecuted as a terrorist for publishing more than 250,000 US diplomatic cables?
yes 48%
no 22%
don't know 30%

Do you think Obama will be re-elected?
yes 28%
no 48%
don't know 24%

Is Palin qualified to be president?
yes 23%
no 64%
don't know 12%

Who do you think is most likely to win the 2012 GOP presidential nomination?

Palin 18%
Romney 13%
Huckabee 9%
Gingrich 3%
everyone else at 2% or less
don't know 51%

When they asked the "DC Elites" this question, the responses were:

Romney 30%
Palin 11%
Huckabee 6%
Barbour 5%
Gingrich 5%
Daniels 3%
Pawlenty 3%
others at 1% or less
don't know 34%

[Psychic Octopus]

Biden is seen as 35% Favorable, 45% Unfavorable? Why?

Pretty much confirms what we already know.

[Landslide Lyndon]

When will there be a "Draft Generic Republican" movement?

[phk]

Yep the current front-runners suck.

[Eraserhead]

Their polls are garbage.

[Hash]

Perhaps their polling is garbage, but trailing a generic Republican by 1 isn't that bad for Obama.

[Keystone Phil]

When will there be a "Draft Generic Republican" movement?

Pawlenty will be in the race soon enough.

[Landslide Lyndon]

When will there be a "Draft Generic Republican" movement?

Pawlenty will be in the race soon enough.

I said Generic Republican, not Generic Uncharismatic Douchebag.

[Keystone Phil]

When will there be a "Draft Generic Republican" movement?

Pawlenty will be in the race soon enough.

I said Generic Republican, not Generic Uncharismatic Douchebag.

"Republican" = "Douchebag" to you so there's not use in discussing this.

[Landslide Lyndon]

When will there be a "Draft Generic Republican" movement?

Pawlenty will be in the race soon enough.

I said Generic Republican, not Generic Uncharismatic Douchebag.

"Republican" = "Douchebag" to you so there's not use in discussing this.

Pawlenty even more so. It's no coincidence he is such a good friend with John McCain.

[Bull Moose Base]

Pawlenty is 16 points wEaker than generic Republican?  I don't understand the Biden thing either.  Why is his favorability 20 points behind Hillary?

[Mr. Morden]

Pawlenty is 16 points wEaker than generic Republican?

People like "Generic Republican" but have no clue who Pawlenty is, so they don't realize that he's "Generic Republican".  People with low name ID always poll badly.  Look at the early general election polls on Obama.

[Bull Moose Base]

I agree on Pawlenty but also Obama is still more popular than the Republican Party.  When people say generic Republican it's probably a bit Rorschach where a motley collection of voters may be envisioning someone more representative of their own ideology.  In practice, the primary is likely to be a contest to out-conservative one's rivals, yielding a candidate too conservative to compete easily.   Even if it's Pawlenty, he won't have won the nomination without defining himself with very conservative views that make him less generic. Not to mention individual vulnerabilities, like his pardon issue, that "generic Republican" has none of.