Can Scott Brown win with Palin leading the ticket?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I mean there's negative coattails from any other Republican candidate and the there's that.

[Torie]

He would have to distance himself from her.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

As in "not endorse her"?

[tpfkaw]

Yes.

Can Sarah Palin win Massachusetts?  Yes.

Can Barack Obama win Utah?  Yes.

Can Rick Santorum win the Republican nomination?  Yes.

Can Evan Bayh primary Obama?  Yes.

[Badger]

Yes.

Can Sarah Palin win Massachusetts?  Yes.

Can Barack Obama win Utah?  Yes.

Can Rick Santorum win the Republican nomination?  Yes.

Can Evan Bayh primary Obama?  Yes.

I think "realistically", or at least "with even a long shot", is implied here.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Yes.

Can Sarah Palin win Massachusetts?  Yes.

Can Barack Obama win Utah?  Yes.

Can Rick Santorum win the Republican nomination?  Yes.

Can Evan Bayh primary Obama?  Yes.

all those events have a less than 0.1% probability of happening.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

If Palin is a nominee, no matter if he endorse her or not, distance from her or not, Brown is DOA with a full Democratic turnout. Esspecially if turnout is against Palin. No matter if MA is safe D in presidential, there's going to be huge Democratic turnout, and many would go just to stop Palin.

[cinyc]

Yes.  Coattails are extremely overrated.  New York had the worst possible gubernatorial candidate at the top of the ticket.  Republicans still picked up a bunch of US House seats and state assembly seats plus control of the state senate.

Brown will stand or fall on his own.

[Skill and Chance]

Surely these are all possible, but they are hardly worth worrying about.  Here are some scenarios:

Yes.

After Palin secures the nomination, Brown announces that he is leaving the GOP to run as an independent.  In a Brown vs. hardcore liberal vs. hardcore Tea Party nominee, he would almost certainly win.

Can Sarah Palin win Massachusetts?  Yes

Possible if unemployment is >16% in the fall of 2012 and Obama curses the Constitution in one of the televised debates.

Can Barack Obama win Utah?  Yes.

An October Surprise video is released of the Republican nominee denouncing the Mormon religion as "a demented, Satanic cult."  Alternatively, 3-4% record low unemployment and 10% GDP growth in 2011-12 with Romney narrowly losing a bitter primary to Huckabee or Palin.

Can Rick Santorum win the Republican nomination?  Yes.

Would require extreme scandals on the part of the other conservative wing contenders, but not impossible.

Can Evan Bayh primary Obama?  Yes.

Obama vetoes a budget over HCR funding or some other dramatic left wing statement that doesn't go over with centrist Dems.  His approval would have to be <35% by early 2012.

[Skill and Chance]

Yes.  Coattails are extremely overrated.  New York had the worst possible gubernatorial candidate at the top of the ticket.  Republicans still picked up a bunch of US House seats and state assembly seats plus control of the state senate.

Brown will stand or fall on his own.

I tend to agree with you, and I think that Brown is actually a 2:1 favorite for re-election in 2012.  His worst difficulties would be in these two scenarios:

1. He takes a decisive socially conservative vote on a major issue in the next two years.  DADT repeal might be an example.   He would lose his appeal to the upper/middle class suburbs, which will be decisive in his re-election bid

2. Obama wins re-election in a 1936 or 1964 level landslide.  If Obama wins by a 60-40 margin nationally, he would get close to 75% of the vote in MA.  Obviously Brown will have to rely on ticket-splitters to win in all but the most dramatic Republican landslide scenarios, but can he get that many of them?   

While I think Brown is significantly favored in 2012, if he wins he had better pray that the president is a Democrat in 2018.  Winning a midterm election in MA with a Republican president will be a positively herculean task. 

[RIP Robert H Bork]

*sigh*

Even if there was a strong anti-Palin vote, why would it involve Brown in any way? If this were Obama's first election, you could allege that Obama's coattails would knock him down, but coattails aren't that common when someone wins the second time. (And I expect a net-gain for Republicans in the Senate in 2012 even if Obama is re-elected.)

For example, there was a huge anti-Democratic vote (for President) in 1972. That didn't stop the Democrats from gaining 2 seats in the Senate.

[Guderian]

Very unlikely. Basically if Palin is the nominee many Republicans outside of deep red states will not endorse her just to have a chance to survive and Brown will most certainly be one of them. I agree that coattails can be overrated but not in this case. Palin is that poisonous.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

'You wouldn't vote for Newt; why would you ever vote for Blute?'

[Eraserhead]

It'd be difficult if he had a credible opponent. Maybe he'll get lucky and Martha Coakley will run again!

[Mr.Phips]

Yes.  Coattails are extremely overrated.  New York had the worst possible gubernatorial candidate at the top of the ticket.  Republicans still picked up a bunch of US House seats and state assembly seats plus control of the state senate.

Brown will stand or fall on his own.

The difference was that 2010 was a bad year for Democrats.  If 2012 is a bad year for Democrats, Obama wont be reelected. 

[Mr.Phips]

*sigh*

Even if there was a strong anti-Palin vote, why would it involve Brown in any way? If this were Obama's first election, you could allege that Obama's coattails would knock him down, but coattails aren't that common when someone wins the second time. (And I expect a net-gain for Republicans in the Senate in 2012 even if Obama is re-elected.)

For example, there was a huge anti-Democratic vote (for President) in 1972. That didn't stop the Democrats from gaining 2 seats in the Senate.

Politics was far less polarized in 1972.  You had Nixon actively campaigning for Democratic voters and he got about 42% of them.  You wont see anything like that in the more polarized atmosphere of 2012. 

[Torie]

As in "not endorse her"?

It depends on the circumstances, and just how toxic Palin is. Pubbies, the few that are in Mass, would have to accept that Brown doing anything other than refusing to comment on the POTUS race, would be the kiss of death. Absent that, they will consider him a traitor, and probably some third party nutter would sink him.

Fortunately, this Brown nightmare is extremely unlikely to happen.

[cinyc]

Yes.  Coattails are extremely overrated.  New York had the worst possible gubernatorial candidate at the top of the ticket.  Republicans still picked up a bunch of US House seats and state assembly seats plus control of the state senate.

Brown will stand or fall on his own.

The difference was that 2010 was a bad year for Democrats.  If 2012 is a bad year for Democrats, Obama wont be reelected. 

2010 was a very good year for top-of-the-ticket New York Democrats.  It was a bad year for downticket Democrats.   Coattails are overrated.

[Mr.Phips]

Yes.  Coattails are extremely overrated.  New York had the worst possible gubernatorial candidate at the top of the ticket.  Republicans still picked up a bunch of US House seats and state assembly seats plus control of the state senate.

Brown will stand or fall on his own.

The difference was that 2010 was a bad year for Democrats.  If 2012 is a bad year for Democrats, Obama wont be reelected. 

2010 was a very good year for top-of-the-ticket New York Democrats.  It was a bad year for downticket Democrats.   Coattails are overrated.

It was a good year for top of the ticket Democrats because the state is very liberal and Democratic and the candidates Republicans put up were basically sacrificial lambs.  The places the GOP gained were generally more Republican than the state as a whole.

[redcommander]

Brown has an excellent shot at surviving. Coattails are indeed overrated, Reagan won 49 states, and didn't exactly expand the Republican majority in the senate, or help Republicans regain control of the House.

[Nichlemn]

Coattails are most relevant when they drive turnout. It's unlikely, for instance, that someone with the preferences of Romney>Obama>Palin is going to change their downballot votes if Palin is nominated over Romney. What could happen is Palin's presence on the ticket motivates a lot of straight-ticket Dem voters to turn out. I don't think this is likely to occur, however, as the sort of people who are most offended by Palin tend to be well-educated liberals who are highly likely to vote anyway. (Then again, there's some evidence this might have occurred with Christine O'Donnell in Delaware).

Indeed, it's possible that Palin could conceivably help Brown if the (probably fairly small) number of straight-ticket Republicans she turns out are nonetheless greater than the number of straight-ticket Dems she motivates to turn out.

[Brittain33]

Coattails are most relevant when they drive turnout. It's unlikely, for instance, that someone with the preferences of Romney>Obama>Palin is going to change their downballot votes if Palin is nominated over Romney. What could happen is Palin's presence on the ticket motivates a lot of straight-ticket Dem voters to turn out. I don't think this is likely to occur, however, as the sort of people who are most offended by Palin tend to be well-educated liberals who are highly likely to vote anyway. (Then again, there's some evidence this might have occurred with Christine O'Donnell in Delaware).

This is the right answer. Palin-Obama means that many Republicans who can't stomach either candidate simply don't vote. Democrats come out to vote against Palin.

[DrScholl]

Palin is very polarizing and that sort of polarization would be a weight on any Republican in a very blue state. Voters don't separate the top of the ticket from the down ballot in a situation like that.

[Eraserhead]

Ever read the comments on Scott Brown's facebook page? *facepalm*

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ever read the comments on Scott Brown's facebook page? *facepalm*

No. What are they like?