American Dynasties
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Yelnoc
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« on: December 11, 2010, 07:26:56 PM »

Introduction

Family dynasties are an integral part of American politics.  They go all the way back to the Adams’s in the early 19th century.  There were the Roosevelt’s during the earlier half of the 20th century and, of course, the Kennedy’s.  George H.W. Bush could be said to have established a dynasty in 1988 and Hillary Clinton supporters would like to think that Bill Clinton did the same in 1992.  Only time will tell.

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Cathcon
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« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2010, 07:30:36 PM »

Is this a Hillary in '08 timeline, or something much deeper? I don't know where this woudl diverge, but a Bush dynasty beginning in 1960 with Prescott Bush woudl be ineteresting (Prescott 1961-1969, George 1981-1989, Dubya 2001-2009). However, I doubt that's what this is.
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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: December 11, 2010, 07:34:35 PM »

2008 Democratic Presidential Primaries - Background

The race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination began early, almost immediately after the 2006 midterms.  The field contained nine major candidates at the opening of the season, though by the time Iowa rolled around the field had been narrowed to three.  Barack Obama rode the endorsement of Oprah to win the Hawkeye State.  Hillary Clinton, the presumed front-runner, was embarrassed, finishing third behind John Edwards.



Clinton managed to rally, breaking Obama’s momentum with a 3% victory in New Hampshire (though they tied in the delegate count).  Obama won the Nevada caucuses and South Carolina primary while Clinton won the disputed Michigan and Florida primaries.  The two states had passed laws moving their primaries before February 5th, the date the DNC set as the earliest a state could hold its primary or caucus.  This created a controversy which would not be put to rest until the end of May.  The dispute caused delegate counts to vary even more than usual; this account adds the delegates to its totals as eventually decided by the DNC in all cases.



Edwards suspended his campaign on January 30th, making the primaries officially a two-person race.  He would endorse Obama after the latter’s string of victories through February.  Super Tuesday was, for all intents and purposes a tie though Obama won slightly more delegates than Hillary.  He backed this up with a string of wins through February.  On the eve of “mini-Super Tuesday”, Obama led Clinton with 1,323.5 to 1,222, just 793.5 delegates short of the magic number 2,117.  Clinton made up the deficit somewhat with her lead in super delegates and was the heavy favorite in the March 4th contests.

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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: December 11, 2010, 07:35:29 PM »

Is this a Hillary in '08 timeline, or something much deeper? I don't know where this woudl diverge, but a Bush dynasty beginning in 1960 with Prescott Bush woudl be ineteresting (Prescott 1961-1969, George 1981-1989, Dubya 2001-2009). However, I doubt that's what this is.
It's not the second but, with luck, it will be much more than the first.
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KS21
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« Reply #4 on: December 11, 2010, 07:42:08 PM »

HILLARY!
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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: December 11, 2010, 07:49:57 PM »

2008 Democratic Presidential Primaries - March

On March 1, Clips from controversial sermons by Reverend Wright, the pastor of Chicago’s Trinity United Church of Christ which Barack Obama regularly attended, resurfaced on YouTube.  The clips contained statements such as “America's chickens are coming home to roost” in reference to the 9/11 attacks and “...not God Bless America. God damn America.”  The videos received heavy air time on major T.V and radio stations and caused polls to swing heavily against Obama.



The Obama campaign immediately released a statement criticizing the remarks and announced “Reverend Wright is no longer serving on the African American Religious Leadership Committee."  Two days later Obama delivered a speech before an audience at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  The speech was widely criticized as “rushed” and “a conventional rebuttal when an unconventional one was called for”.  Obama continued to sink in the polls, allowing Clinton to widen her lead in Ohio and Rhode Island and retake the lead in Texas.



Clinton swept “mini-Super Tuesday”, winning the Ohio, Rhode Island, and Texas primaries by large margins and beating out Obama in the Texas caucuses and Vermont primary.  The little-publicized Wyoming caucuses were held four days later and resulted in an even tie.  Obama managed to eke out a victory in the heavily black state of Mississippi though the delegate count was much closer than anticipated.  He managed to close the gap at the Iowa county conventions when eight of the ten delegates who had supported other candidates switched to him.  By the end of March, Hillary had closed the gap in the delegate count to 38½ delegates with 1,476 to Obama’s 1,514.5.

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J. J.
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« Reply #6 on: December 11, 2010, 08:07:38 PM »

I think there would be better dynasties that Clinto or even Bush.  Harrison or Roosevelt, for example.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #7 on: December 11, 2010, 08:09:06 PM »

I think there would be better dynasties that Clinto or even Bush.  Harrison or Roosevelt, for example.

Return of the Harrisons would be really funny Wink
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #8 on: December 12, 2010, 08:14:41 PM »

2008 Democratic Presidential Primaries – April-June

The month and a half stretch to April 22 was a tense one.  Though the Wright controversy was beginning to fade into the background, Clinton’s decisive wins in March had given her a lot of momentum; there was a real possibility that a solid win in Pennsylvania would put Hillary in the lead.  Looming over the heads of both candidates was the fact that John McCain had clinched the Republican nomination at the beginning of March.  Thus, the Republicans would have a huge advantage going into the general election a united party while the Democrats would likely remain divided up to their convention.

Clinton scored a huge victory in Pennsylvania, putting her within 6½ delegates of Obama.  Obama was able to counter with a surprise win in North Carolina, though Clinton stayed on top with her victory in Indiana.  For the first time since the primary season began, Clinton led Obama, albeit only by 2½ delegates.  Her stranglehold on Super Delegates put her firmly in first place, though Obama was definitely not out of it yet.



Clinton’s strong support amongst Appalachian voters allowed her to easily win the West Virginia and Kentucky primaries.  Obama managed to hold it together with a victory in Oregon, though Clinton now led by 45½ pledged delegates and commanded a projected majority of the super delegates.  The month of May would not end well for the Obama campaign; the DNC agreed to give half-votes to the Michigan and Florida delegations, each of which were strong Clinton supporters.



Clinton scored an easy victory in Puerto Rico.  On June 3rd, the last day of the primary season, Clinton won South Dakota and tied with Obama in Montana.  Hillary had come from behind in March to lead Obama by 77.5 delegates.  She was still 300 delegates short of the magic number.  The summer of 2008 would be full of attempts by both the Clinton and Obama campaigns to sway the necessary number of Super Delegates to their side.  It would not be until the Democratic National Convention that the party’s nomination was finally decided.

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Cathcon
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« Reply #9 on: December 13, 2010, 10:04:42 AM »

What's the fate of the Republican nomination? Does McCain still win?
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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: December 13, 2010, 03:09:15 PM »

What's the fate of the Republican nomination? Does McCain still win?
That's a comin', though if you look at the POD (the Reverend Wright controversy occuring sooner causing Hillary to win bigger on "mini-Super Tuesday") and how McCain was faring in March the answer should be fairly obvious.
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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: December 13, 2010, 08:43:56 PM »

Minor Party Spotlight

The Constitution Party Convention was held from April 24-27 in Kansas City, Missouri.  The party nominated Chuck Baldwin on the first ballot, beating former ambassador Alan Keyes who would go on to launch a nation write-in campaign.



The Libertarian Party Convention was held from May 22-26 at the Sheraton Hotel in Denver Colorado.  The party platform remained mostly the same as the one from the 2006 convention when the more moderate “reformers” took control of the party.  The major candidates in the race for Libertarian presidential nomination were Bob Barr, Mary Ruwart, Wayne Allyn Root, and Mike Gravel.  After six ballots, Barr was nominated by the party for President; Root would win the Vice Presidential ballot.  In response, Mike Gravel announced the end of his political career.



The Green Party Convention was held from July 10-14 at the Palmer House Hotel and Symphony Center in Chicago, Illinois.  The party nominated former Georgia Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney for President and Rosa Clemente for Vice President.



Ralph Nader ran his fifth campaign for president.  He participated in Green Party debates as an unofficial candidate but was defeated by Cynthia McKinney.  There was speculation that Nader would run an independent campaign with Mike Gravel; Gravel’s switch to the Libertarian party in hopes of winning their nomination precluded him from appearing on a ticket with Nader.  In the end, Nader did launch a presidential campaign with running mate Matt Gonzalez.  He won the Peace and Freedom Party’s nomination, giving him instant ballot access in California.

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