US House Redistricting: West Virginia

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Shelley Moore Capito lives in Charleston, I think, so that puts her in the 3rd district.

WV does need to figure out what it's going to do with the panhandle. Tough to keep it in the 2nd and keep that link of counties. I wonder if they'd consider linking Charleston and Wheeling in a single district and putting Morgantown in with the panhandle.

That's an interesting thought. McKinley lives in Wheeling, but since Democrats control redistricting, why should they care where the Republicans end up as long as it doesn't threaten Rahall? Something like this could very well happen:



Capito and McKinley are primaried in the blue district, and the green district may be more competitive than it looks. Oliverio received 55.19% of the two party vote in the portion of the green district currently in the the 1st.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Yeah I know Capito would be put in the same district as Rahall, but I highly doubt the Democrats who control the redistricting would care since Rahall would win. Besides Capito can just "move" anyway.

That's quite a gamble, though. Capito is a moderate, and that part of West Virginia has seen the hardest trends toward the Republicans. While it's clear that Rahall has the advantage on paper, there's a good chance that Capito could knock him out, and then you're left with an all-Republican delegation.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

That's quite a gamble, though. Capito is a moderate, and that part of West Virginia has seen the hardest trends toward the Republicans. While it's clear that Rahall has the advantage on paper, there's a good chance that Capito could knock him out, and then you're left with an all-Republican delegation.

Presidential voting patterns in WV aren't a good indicator of anything other than Presidential voting patterns; WV-3 is the most Democratic district of the three at all other levels and will remain so for the foreseeable future, although there has certainly been negative movement around Beckley.

Presidential voting patterns aren't really my biggest concern. What kind of opposition has Rahall faced in his career? I seriously doubt that he's faced off against anybody as formidable as Capito.

If you look at BRTD's map, WV-2 would also be a Republican stronghold, to the point where the GOP probably wouldn't have to worry about who runs there. Capito would be a top-tier candidate in their efforts to unseat Rahall. She's popular, she has huge name recognition, and her moderate positions will get her crossover support. Not to mention she is already an incumbent. If anyone can unseat Rahall, it's Capito. Of course, she has other options as well. She may explore a Senatorial or Gubernatorial bid if confronted with that map.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Looks like they may be putting Capito and McKinley together.

I'm not surprised. The Democrats have nothing to lose by doing so.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Another trifecta goes to waste...

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I still think they should have been more aggressive. This is one of what, three states where Democrats have the trifecta? They already blew it in Arkansas. The Democrats had nothing to lose by reconfiguring the two northern districts in an attempt to unseat McKinley. What a waste.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

has anyone made a GOP friendly map? I'm trying to do one. Hard to do it without partisan data...

The most recent map posted on this thread looks pretty damn GOP friendly to me. It's a real shame that a Democratic trifecta is going to be wasted like this.