Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 17, 2019, 12:39:50 pm
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Both Sides™, Apocrypha)
  A Serious Dilemma 2012 - A short election timeline
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Author Topic: A Serious Dilemma 2012 - A short election timeline  (Read 6520 times)
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,575
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: December 22, 2011, 03:10:09 pm »

Great!! However, if Paul managed to get +50% of the GOP voting for him.. I don't see him catching only 13% in the GE
Logged
MyRescueKittehRocks
JohanusCalvinusLibertas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,614
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: December 22, 2011, 06:22:42 pm »

Great!! However, if Paul managed to get +50% of the GOP voting for him.. I don't see him catching only 13% in the GE

He'd likely win because he'd bring in the Old Right, many social/religious conservatives anti-war folks of all stripes. Johnson and the Libertarian Party would endorse Paul. The Constituition Party would endorse Paul. I don't think the GOP establishment would sabatoge their own future credibility (the little they have) just to stop the father of the Tea Party. Besides the neocon/establishment/progressive wing has had the top of the ticket since Bush 41. Since 88 they have went 3-3 with both of Bush 43's disputed by many. In my lifetime ,when a conservative has led the GOP ticket,  they win as badly as the RandPaulslide of 2010.
Logged
sentinel
sirnick
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,739
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -6.61

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: December 22, 2011, 07:17:29 pm »

Great timeline!

Thanks!

This was interesting....  I would have liked to see a tighter race, but very good.

I considered a tighter race, but I made it go the other way. I was writing it on a spree and I was getting tired towards the end, so ending it quickly was a bit easier. The focus of this, what I hope you see as the focus, is not the results of the election but the conversation within the GOP that I created. I think the conversation is a realistic one.

Great!! However, if Paul managed to get +50% of the GOP voting for him.. I don't see him catching only 13% in the GE

He'd likely win because he'd bring in the Old Right, many social/religious conservatives anti-war folks of all stripes. Johnson and the Libertarian Party would endorse Paul. The Constituition Party would endorse Paul. I don't think the GOP establishment would sabatoge their own future credibility (the little they have) just to stop the father of the Tea Party. Besides the neocon/establishment/progressive wing has had the top of the ticket since Bush 41. Since 88 they have went 3-3 with both of Bush 43's disputed by many. In my lifetime ,when a conservative has led the GOP ticket,  they win as badly as the RandPaulslide of 2010.


I'm not sure if the Libretarians would drop their campaign to endorse Paul. The GOP has made comments that sound like they would sabotage their own candidate, so if they did --it wouldn't surprise me.

Great!! However, if Paul managed to get +50% of the GOP voting for him.. I don't see him catching only 13% in the GE


I forgot the statistic I made up, but a Gallup poll showed a large portion of the GOP would not vote for Paul.  The stat I made up was before Otter and Trump was in the race, so their entrance, a lack of Republican establishment excitement/support and bad convention would drown Paul's numbers.
Logged
MyRescueKittehRocks
JohanusCalvinusLibertas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,614
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: December 22, 2011, 07:37:23 pm »

It would make the establishment look bad not the Ron Paul folks if they sabatoged their own. Possibly end the current party system.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC