Which map is more likely at this point?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Map A's more likely, which isn't to say that it's very likely at all.

[Niemeyerite]

MAP A

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Seems to me that Map B depends on a particularly good Republican candidate, better than the names tossed around right now.    So by default A is more likely.  

I could see the country turning on Obama so much that any Republican who isn't a walking gaffe machine does quite well as the country embraces "change", but I could just be pessimistic.

To that point, George H.W. Bush wasn't a particularly good or inspiring candidate in 1988, but he had a good campaign and good macro conditions against a vulnerable opponent, so he won by a sizable margin.

Makes me wonder if Palin could be any worse than Dukakis.

[Zarn]

I might keep NJ red in any situation, since has such a huge African American vote.  

Yeah, it prevented Christie from getting elected governor.

[fezzyfestoon]

I might keep NJ red in any situation, since has such a huge African American vote. 

Yeah, it prevented Christie from getting elected governor.

New Jersey's local and national voting are completely different.

It's amusing to see the Republicans vote map B.  Are they aware of reality at this point?  NONE of the candidates they're contemplating could even come close to pulling off a victory like that.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I might keep NJ red in any situation, since has such a huge African American vote. 

Yeah, it prevented Christie from getting elected governor.

New Jersey's local and national voting are completely different.

It's amusing to see the Republicans vote map B.  Are they aware of reality at this point?  NONE of the candidates they're contemplating could even come close to pulling off a victory like that.

Pence could easily have that map if the vote takes place in the midst of a double dip with 10% unemployment

[fezzyfestoon]

Right, because so many candidates were performing so well against Obama in polls during the worst of the recession.

[Zarn]

I might keep NJ red in any situation, since has such a huge African American vote. 

Yeah, it prevented Christie from getting elected governor.

New Jersey's local and national voting are completely different.

It's amusing to see the Republicans vote map B.  Are they aware of reality at this point?  NONE of the candidates they're contemplating could even come close to pulling off a victory like that.

While true, NJ's vote has been creeping GOP compared to the national average throughout the 2000s.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Right, because so many candidates were performing so well against Obama in polls during the worst of the recession.

1)  Obama is going to own the economy, for better or worse, much more in 2012 than he has to date.
2)  the candidates in the polls are weighed down by a) Palin being the face of the GOP, and b) their own flaws (e.g. Romney, Huck, etc).  Once Palin is out of the way, if someone like Pence wins the nomination, he may actually poll better than the "generic Republican"

[albaleman]

Map 1 for sure. Map 2 is possible, but it would require a strong Republican candidate, which I don't think the GOP has. Map 1 is very possible especially considering the weak Republican field.

[Brittain33]

I might keep NJ red in any situation, since has such a huge African American vote. 

Yeah, it prevented Christie from getting elected governor.

New Jersey's local and national voting are completely different.

It's amusing to see the Republicans vote map B.  Are they aware of reality at this point?  NONE of the candidates they're contemplating could even come close to pulling off a victory like that.

While true, NJ's vote has been creeping GOP compared to the national average throughout the 2000s.

That's primarily a correction from a massive swing to the Dems in the 1990s. There's been demographic change over that time which is not helpful to Republicans and not bringing back 1988. (Weird to think George H.W. Bush actually campaigned in my home town back then... McCain wouldn't have dreamed of it.)

[phk]

Right, because so many candidates were performing so well against Obama in polls during the worst of the recession.

Recession was over just 5 months after Obama took office.

[phk]

I might keep NJ red in any situation, since has such a huge African American vote. 

Yeah, it prevented Christie from getting elected governor.

New Jersey's local and national voting are completely different.

It's amusing to see the Republicans vote map B.  Are they aware of reality at this point?  NONE of the candidates they're contemplating could even come close to pulling off a victory like that.

While true, NJ's vote has been creeping GOP compared to the national average throughout the 2000s.

That's primarily a correction from a massive swing to the Dems in the 1990s. There's been demographic change over that time which is not helpful to Republicans and not bringing back 1988. (Weird to think George H.W. Bush actually campaigned in my home town back then... McCain wouldn't have dreamed of it.)

Interestingly McCain 08 > Bush 00. But there were some heavy R swings in places like Ocean.

[fezzyfestoon]

Right, because so many candidates were performing so well against Obama in polls during the worst of the recession.

Recession was over just 5 months after Obama took office.

Yeah, technically.  No one really feels like it's over even now.

While true, NJ's vote has been creeping GOP compared to the national average throughout the 2000s.

Exactly, creeping.  It's still nowhere close to being Republican nationally.  Plus, it's really becoming more polarized rather than a uniform trend.  And brittain's right, it's more of a correction anyway.

[Brittain33]

Interestingly McCain 08 > Bush 00. But there were some heavy R swings in places like Ocean.

Olds.

[auburntiger]

Since I have to vote for one or the other, Map B. But my map would be something close to a 1976 defeat of the sitting president. 2008 was a perfect storm for Democrats across the board, which won't be taking place two years from now. Could Obama win? yes, but it would be a 1916-style reelection if that happens.

[anvi]

I don't think either map is realistic.  If Obama is reelected, I think he'll be getting somewhere in between 300-320 electoral votes.  If he loses, he will barely lose, getting somewhere between 240-260 electoral votes.  The only possibility for map B, as others have mentioned, would be unaffected or rising unemployment between now and the fall of '12.

[-]

A

[Torie]

That Pubbie landslide map is ludicrous - just ludicrous. The 1996 map means that Obama largely sorted out his problems. I see a map like that if Obama and the Pubbies can come together on writing a new tax code.

[feeblepizza]

Map A, although I think that neither will happen. He will lose reelection in a close race, probably depending on Virginia and Colorado.

[Tender Branson]

Map A by a really good margin in my mind.

[Tender Branson]

Map A, although I think that neither will happen. He will lose reelection in a close race, probably depending on Virginia and Colorado.

If Mike Bennet won CO with 40% or so approval, Obama should win it also.

[redcommander]

Map A, although I think that neither will happen. He will lose reelection in a close race, probably depending on Virginia and Colorado.

If Mike Bennet won CO with 40% or so approval, Obama should win it also.

His opponent was crazy and sexist that is why Bennett won. Obama should be so lucky.

[tpfkaw]

Map B I can conceive of happening, Map A could not possibly happen.  The level of economic growth required to reach Map A is not possible.

[Napoleon]

Map A, although I think that neither will happen. He will lose reelection in a close race, probably depending on Virginia and Colorado.

If Mike Bennet won CO with 40% or so approval, Obama should win it also.

His opponent was crazy and sexist that is why Bennett won. Obama should be so lucky.

Colorado is trending towards the Democrats and has been for a long time. You can't just sit there in denial. That's how you guys lost all of New England.