Republicans can still win in 2012 with PA or VA without winning CO, NM and NV. Not the other way.
Some things to keep in mind about PA is that it was one of the states that was targeted heavily by Mccain in 2008, since he basically gave up on Wisconsin and Michigan (and the results show that). Also Obama's problem with blue collar workers manifested itself in PA before the rest of the midwest, particularly the upper midwest, due to his gaffe about western PA. So the swing against him that we saw in Wisconsin and Michigan had already happened in PA. Rather it will again be the Philly burbs who decide the winner, and if Obama is losing there he is losing the country. PA is close to being a tipping point state, but not quite.
