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February 29, 2020, 12:04:51 am
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  what state has changed the least?
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Anarcho-Statism
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« Reply #25 on: September 22, 2019, 08:59:08 am »

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Roll Roons
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« Reply #26 on: September 22, 2019, 09:03:51 am »

No mention of Kansas? The state hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since FDR's time, and that won't change unless Kobach gets the nomination. Despite what people on here seem to think, its streak of voting for Republican presidential nominees for the past century (apart from 1932, 1936 and 1964) also won't end anytime soon.
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Anarcho-Statism
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« Reply #27 on: September 22, 2019, 09:15:02 am »

No mention of Kansas? The state hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since FDR's time, and that won't change unless Kobach gets the nomination. Despite what people on here seem to think, its streak of voting for Republican presidential nominees for the past century (apart from 1932, 1936 and 1964) also won't end anytime soon.

That and Nebraska would be my first suggestions, but a lot of people here are very insistent that both are future flips for the Democrats (at least NE-02).
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sg0508
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« Reply #28 on: September 22, 2019, 10:35:50 am »

Minnesota. 
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #29 on: September 22, 2019, 11:48:18 am »

If we're talking about since the 1980s, I would say Idaho. Safe Republican state then, Safe republican state now.
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LiberalDem19
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« Reply #30 on: September 22, 2019, 11:41:35 pm »


Went from voting Mondale in the Reagan landslide to almost going Trump, and elected governors from three parties during that time period. Also had senators from both parties during that time, and the legislature is really swingy. I'm not seeing the case here.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #31 on: September 22, 2019, 11:45:47 pm »

I'm gonna go with Virginia. Republicans still do 2-5% better here than they do nationally.

This was wrong for even 2004(Unless you lol just look at 1976 and 2004 without considering anything in between)

VA PVI From 1976-2004:


1976: R +3.4
1980: R +3
1984: R +7
1988: R+12.7
1992: R+10
1996: R+10.5
2000: R+8.5
2004: R+5.8
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xingkerui
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« Reply #32 on: September 23, 2019, 04:06:18 pm »

Idaho, Nebraska, Alabama, South Carolina, New York, and Massachusetts.
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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #33 on: September 24, 2019, 05:46:11 pm »

Eastern Tennessee.
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MarkD
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« Reply #34 on: September 25, 2019, 12:36:18 am »

Kansas. Maybe Alaska too.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #35 on: September 29, 2019, 03:59:12 pm »
« Edited: September 29, 2019, 04:02:29 pm by MT Treasurer »

Easily South Carolina, not even close. Incredibly resilient R base for a South Atlantic state, virtually no dramatic political or geographical shifts in R/D support within the state over the past three decades, and trended 0.2% R from 1988-2016, 0.0% D/R from 2000-2016, 0.1% R from 2008-2016.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #36 on: September 29, 2019, 04:34:22 pm »

Maybe Montana?  Consistent Republican lean at the presidential level since 1952, but a remarkably resilient New Deal style Dem coalition keeping it competitive downballot even into 2018.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #37 on: September 29, 2019, 04:43:55 pm »

Since 2000, (and maybe even 1992) a case could be made for Massachusetts.  In each presidential election since 2000, the Democrat carried it by 27, 25, 26, 23, & 27% respectively.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #38 on: September 29, 2019, 04:46:33 pm »

Since 2000, (and maybe even 1992) a case could be made for Massachusetts.  In each presidential election since 2000, the Democrat carried it by 27, 25, 26, 23, & 27% respectively.

Yes, but the internal geography of the Dem vote has shifted dramatically.  Dems are anomalously strong everywhere vs. nationwide, but it's still gradually turning into Greater Boston and the college towns vs. everyone else.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #39 on: September 29, 2019, 05:27:59 pm »
« Edited: September 29, 2019, 05:32:04 pm by TDAS04 »

Since 2000, (and maybe even 1992) a case could be made for Massachusetts.  In each presidential election since 2000, the Democrat carried it by 27, 25, 26, 23, & 27% respectively.

Yes, but the internal geography of the Dem vote has shifted dramatically.  Dems are anomalously strong everywhere vs. nationwide, but it's still gradually turning into Greater Boston and the college towns and western Mass and Martha's Vineyard/Nantucket vs. everyone else.


Maybe Montana?  Consistent Republican lean at the presidential level since 1952, but a remarkably resilient New Deal style Dem coalition keeping it competitive downballot even into 2018.

There's internal geographical shift in Montana too.  East Montana is trending Republican, West Montana is trending relatively Democratic.  
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« Reply #40 on: October 03, 2019, 06:09:51 am »

over the last 20-30 years, what state has changed the least politically?

id say indiana.

Indiana has traded urban and suburban business Republicans for former white Ohio Valley Democrats turned Republicans. While the net effect has been the same in Presidential results, the party of the moderate, pragmatic Republicans like Dick Lugar is no more. Now they are toxic white culture crusaders flying Confederate flags and pressing for English as our official language.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #41 on: October 03, 2019, 08:12:38 pm »

Wyoming doesn’t seem to have changed much since it first became a state.
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« Reply #42 on: October 04, 2019, 01:25:03 am »

Oklahoma, but that may change in the next election.
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