FL-PPP: Obama leads Romney by 2, Huckabee/Gingrich by 5, Palin by 14 (!)

[Oakvale]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/12/obama-posts-early-lead-in-florida.html

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Haha, Palin.

[Niemeyerite]

Obama will win florida by a larger margin than in 2008 =).

[Mr. Morden]

a. Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 44%

b. Barack Obama 49% Mike Huckabee 44%

c. Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 42%

d. Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 38%

e. Barack Obama 48% Marco Rubio 40%

Fav Ratings:

a. Mitt Romney 43%/38% for +5%.

b. Marco Rubio 43%/42% for +1%.

c. Mike Huckabee 41%/43% for -2%.

d. Newt Gingrich 36%/47% for -11%.

e. Sarah Palin 36%/57% for -21%.

[Devilman88]

guys, you are getting all hype up on polls two years out, these polls mean nothing. If I remember right, two years out 2008 was suppose to be a Clinton vs giuliani race and the Republicans looking like they were going to win.

[opebo]

guys, you are getting all hype up on polls two years out, these polls mean nothing. If I remember right, two years out 2008 was suppose to be a Clinton vs giuliani race and the Republicans looking like they were going to win.

The point isn't to conclude that 'Obama is going to win', but that he can win.  We'd written him off, and yet he's still polling well and the economy is only going to get better (though perhaps in the end not good enough).

[Psychic Octopus]

guys, you are getting all hype up on polls two years out, these polls mean nothing. If I remember right, two years out 2008 was suppose to be a Clinton vs giuliani race and the Republicans looking like they were going to win.

The point isn't to conclude that 'Obama is going to win', but that he can win.  We'd written him off, and yet he's still polling well and the economy is only going to get better (though perhaps in the end not good enough).

We never wrote him off, and I'd wager that most people here think he'll win. Whether he'll win or not will unfold over the course of the next two years, and it is ridiculous that we are making such bold assumptions.

a. Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 44%

b. Barack Obama 49% Mike Huckabee 44%

c. Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 42%

d. Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 38%

e. Barack Obama 48% Marco Rubio 40%

Fav Ratings:

a. Mitt Romney 43%/38% for +5%.

b. Marco Rubio 43%/42% for +1%.

c. Mike Huckabee 41%/43% for -2%.

d. Newt Gingrich 36%/47% for -11%.

e. Sarah Palin 36%/57% for -21%.

Rubio's favorability rating is only 43/42, and lower then Romney's? Yeah, right...

[Eraserhead]

Something must have went wrong with their sample of indies and maybe their sample of Dems too. Only a 10% difference in their approvals of him? Uhh...

[opebo]

We never wrote him off, and I'd wager that most people here think he'll win.

Oh I see.  I had pretty much written him off, but I'll be the first to admit that's my own failing.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

LOL

[pbrower2a]

guys, you are getting all hype up on polls two years out, these polls mean nothing. If I remember right, two years out 2008 was suppose to be a Clinton vs giuliani race and the Republicans looking like they were going to win.

It's all that we have for now. Sheesh! There's nothing that we can predict with absolute certainty about 2012 except that there will be a 2012. For all that we know the shockwave of a supernova or a gamma ray blast could hit us before then and bring about human extinction. There might be no people, but time just wouldn't stop without us.   

But back to the basic discussion. We all make assumptions, and mine are:

1. That so far, President Obama does well at the Lichtman test that predicts the results of Presidential campaigns or is highly likely to do so.

2. He on big in 2008, well enough to lose a little support in the next election and still win decisively.

3. He had a superb campaign apparatus in 2008 and he will pull it out of mothballs in 2012. 

4. The GOP field of potential opponents is very flawed. Any strong opponent is hard to see now -- and it is generally impossible to see what isn't there except for a mirage. The GOP basically will need a new Ronald Reagan to beat President Obama.

5. His political skills are d@mn good. He has gotten much legislation passed -- and if little passes between now and November 2012, then guess who gets the blame!

6. He is in a "Heads I win, tails you lose" situation in the economy. The GOP takeover of the House of Representatives practically ensures that he can take advantage of any radicalism or extremism among Republicans in the event of an economic downturn. If the economy strengthens, he takes credit for what he and the Democratic majority in the Congress did before 2011.   

[All Along The Watchtower]

On the topic of GOP candidates:

I don't think Gingrich has a real constituency in the GOP. He was hated by Republicans and Democrats alike in Congress, and he's just too intellectually arrogant for the GOP.

Romney and Huckabee split the party between business conservatives and religious conservatives, respectively. Ideally for them, they would need someone who is well-liked enough by both the establishment and the rank-and-file, but more importantly, someone who is well-known.

Huckabee likely has the highest ceiling against Obama. I think it could very well be him. If not him, then Romney.

Of course, the GOP could be stupid and nominate someone crazy like Palin or Rick Perry.

[Tender Branson]

Obama vs. Huckabee

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

Obama vs. Palin

[Mjh]

Obama will win florida by a larger margin than in 2008 =).

Maybe with Sarah Palin on the GOP-ticket. Otherwise it will be a toss-up.

[Niemeyerite]

Obama will win florida by a larger margin than in 2008 =).

Maybe with Sarah Palin on the GOP-ticket. Otherwise it will be a toss-up.

Not really, only romney has a smaller deficit than mccain in 2008 against obama. and roimney won't win the primary

[albaleman]

Surprised to see that Romney is doing better than Huckabee.

This poll has to be very bad news for the Republicans. If they can't win FL, they don't have any chance of beating Obama.

[Lincoln Republican]

Clearly, Romney is the stronget candidate the Republicans could nominate.

[Niemeyerite]

Clearly, Romney is the stronget candidate the Republicans could nominate.

and is still behind obama in NC, OH, VA and FL.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Clearly, Romney is the stronget candidate the Republicans could nominate.

I love how you use one state to demonstrate that.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Clearly, Romney is the stronget candidate the Republicans could nominate.

I love how you use one state to demonstrate that.

     Indeed, & consider that Huckabee actually manages to pull in NC. Romney just manages to lose FL by a smaller margin.