Probably being too generous to the Progressives and Democrats here - While TR has name recognition, he does not have apparatus as a third party candidate.
Very interesting, and pretty much in line with the map I had in mind when I made this thread. There are only three that I might dispute - Wilson could get a home state advantage by claiming either Virginia or New Jersey, and I wonder about Texas. Other than that though, we seem to be in line in our thoughts.
You may indeed be right about Virginia.
However, I think Texas would go narrowly for Taft. The Republican establishment has grown quite strong in Texas - Clinton only garnering 43% of the vote in 96. I would owe this to the "Texas oilmen"/businessmen so to speak, but this would be a swing state in this election.
This would be a very interesting election - Wilson, whom normally would be a "fringe" candidate would have the strength of the Democratic Party apparatus, and run quite stronger iin places he ought not to. Added that, being the most socially conservative candidate, would do unusually well (for a Democrat) amongst evangelicals/in rural areas. I imagine Taft winning the military vote, and holding on to the Republican West.
