US House Redistricting: Washington

[Verily]

Well, of course. You wouldn't need a raft; you could do that by road. But we're assuming not using international contiguity, otherwise you could connect Detroit to the UP in one district.

Ohio. Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin are not foreign countries.

If we're saying that, neither are Oregon and Idaho.

[bgwah]

Well I hope you're wrong, Meeker. That map is an abomination. And considering Yakima is still split despite having two East-West crossings, not even Sounder's prediction was entirely correct. I suppose we were all being idealistic with our maps. Just because it's "bipartisan" doesn't mean it can't be a disgusting gerrymander, I guess.

It would be great if the Democrats grew a spine and let the courts draw the map---it is very unlikely it would be any worse for them than that.

Of course, I'm getting upset over Meeker's rumors. Again, I hope you're wrong!

[Seattle]

Those stupid Cascades .

I'm not totally opposed to how you drew the new 8th, while it is certainly way more Republican and it crosses over, it's still competitive, however, two crossings + a three way split of Yakima County is too much.... It was better when it was just between the third and eighth.

[Meeker]

Those stupid Cascades .

I'm not totally opposed to how you drew the new 8th, while it is certainly way more Republican and it crosses over, it's still competitive, however, two crossings + a three way split of Yakima County is too much.... It was better when it was just between the third and eighth.

It could be done, but then the 8th has to do this ugly thing into Wenatchee. It's a question of whether you divide Yakima County three ways or divide Yakima County and Chelan County two ways each.

There could also be potential for the 3rd to pick up more of Yakima --> the 8th to pick up more of Pierce --> the 10th to pick up more of Lewis. Then you have to start splitting another county though.

[bgwah]

Those stupid Cascades .

I'm not totally opposed to how you drew the new 8th, while it is certainly way more Republican and it crosses over, it's still competitive, however, two crossings + a three way split of Yakima County is too much.... It was better when it was just between the third and eighth.

It would amusing and slightly depressing at the same time if we had really wasted pages arguing about I-90 vs. Satus, and then the bastards just went ahead and used both crossings.

If Meeker's map is even close to correct, though, I would definitely like to see non-partisan redistricting instead of this awful "bipartisan" garbage.

[Seattle]

If Meeker's map is even close to correct, though, I would definitely like to see non-partisan redistricting instead of this awful "bipartisan" garbage.

I agree, if they come up with some gross gerrymander, I'd like that we move onto an Iowa type redistricting commision. Enough of Slade Gorton and his sleeziness.

[Meeker]

For the record, I agree with both of you. Unfortunately I don't see it changing anytime soon though. It would require a constitutional amendment and it makes little sense from a self-preservation perspective for the state legislature to change the system.

[minionofmidas]

How many people in the built-up Selah/Yakima portion of the 8th? Any way that could be avoided, perhaps by a huge counterclockwise shift?

[Meeker]

How many people in the built-up Selah/Yakima portion of the 8th? Any way that could be avoided, perhaps by a huge counterclockwise shift?

It's about 55,000 people. It could be avoided with a 3rd taking more of Yakima --> 8th taking more of Pierce --> 10th taking in most of Lewis. This would result in another county getting split up though, along with the 10th becoming more Republican.

It's unfortunate for those affected, but as with the current map (which splits Olympia right down the middle) someone somewhere is going to have be split up to make the numbers work.

[bgwah]

Apparently there's been quite of demand in the Yakima area for a majority-minority legislative district. I played around in the app, it's actually quite easy to draw a fairly compact district that is >70% non-white. Of course, the ripple effect it would have on surrounding districts would need to be considered. Still kind of interesting, though.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Wouldn't that seat still be heavily Rossi?

[Seattle]

It would, but not as heavily Rossi if it were not majority-minority. I think it is an interesting idea, but can it be done without messing up surrounding districts too much?

[bgwah]

Here is the proposed district: http://www.aclu-wa.org/sites/default/files/2011-06-06--Exhibit%201.pdf

I tried it out, making the 15th LD (orange) the minority-majority district. It looks fine by itself, but has a noticeable ripple effect on the rest of Eastern Washington's districts. The biggest problem that immediatately surfaces is what to do with Skamania and Klickitat counties, as the minority-majority district blocks Satus Pass.

In my first map, I tried sneaking by via the White Swan precinct to connect Skamania and Klickitat to the city of Yakima. Ideally, the town of White Swan would obviously be kept in a minority majority precinct, but the precinct there is huge so use your imagination. However, I'm not sure we have very good road connectivity even with this sneak-by. But despite that, the benefit of his map is that it manages to keep the rest of Eastern Washington's districts relatively intact. I did change the 9th a bit, having it go into Walla Walla instead of Adams and Franklin.

MAP 1



In my second map, the 15th LD (orange) keeps White Swan. The 14th (olive) remains based in northern Yakima County, gaining what it needs left from southern Kittitas. Kittitas has been completely removed from the 13th (salmon). The small-ish remaining portion of northern Kittitas is merged with Chelan to the north in the 12th district (blue). The 12th gains northern Kittitas at the expense of northern Grant. A couple thousand people are shifted around Omak, but otherwise the 12th stays relatively the same. The 7th (a lighter shade of orange?) has gained areas around Omak, but lost Lincoln County. The borders in Spokane County have been slightly altered around the edges to put their populations in equilbrium, but the 3rd (green) and 6th (yellow) didn't change too much. The 4th didn't change much either, losing NE Spokane County in exchange for SE Spokane County.

The 13th (salmon) has changed quite a bit, losing all of Kittitas and moving eastward. It now contains all of Grant, and also eats up Adams, Lincoln, and small portions of Spokane and Whitman in order to make up for losing Kittitas. As you may have noticed, we're seeing a bit of a circular population shift to create the minority district. The 13th has now pushed the 9th (cyan) completely out of Spokane and Adams and even part of Whitman. The 9th gains all of Columbia and Walla Walla, and a bit more of Franklin, to make up for its losses. The effects of the circular push result  in the 16th (green) changing most radically. It transforms from a Walla Walla-Pasco district to a Kennewick-to-Skamania district, as Southern Yakima is impenetrable in this map due to the 15th. The 8th district hasn't changed a ton. It loses Kennewick, but gains Pasco instead.

MAP 2


And thus the circular movement is completed---The 15th, which currently goes down to Skamania (and a bit of Clark), is pushed completely north into Yakima County, pushing the 14th north into Kittitas, pushing the 13th east towards Spokane and Whitman, pushing the 9th south and then east into Walla Walla and Franklin, and finally pushing the 16th all the way through Klickitat to Skamania.

The 15th LD is now 73.5% non-white. However, it still voted 53-47 Rossi.

[bgwah]

Well gee, don't all comment at once...

[bgwah]

Even though nobody cares, I'll continue: I toyed around with a majority-minority congressional district in King County.

Statewide view:


King County view:



I roughly based this off of the real proposal, but as usual their map makers don't make it as non-white as possible, and of course ignore the ripple effect it would have on other districts in the state.

The 9th district becomes majority-minority, containing South King County and much of South Seattle (though I kept the much whiter West Seattle in the 7th).

With its population pushed close to 200K under with these losses, the 7th extends north to the King County border, taking Shoreline and Lake Forest Park from the 1st. Not enough, obviously, so it also crosses the I-90 bridge, taking in Mercer Island, Newcastle, the Gold Coast, and most of Bellevue from the 8th.

With Shoreline and LFP lost, the 1st absorbs Redmond and a bit of Bellevue from the 8th.

The 8th eats up the whiter parts of the 9th in the suburban Pierce County.

The numbers:
-Dave Reichert would be satisfied: his new district is 54-46 Rossi, just as good if not better than than the proposals where his district extends into Eastern Washington.
-Dicks gets Kitsap, which Meeker claims he wants.
-Heck still gets his new Democratic-leaning 10th district anchored by Olympia, which anyone with a brain could figure out he wants.
-Herrera still gets to cut out leftist Olympia and gain part of Eastern Washington for a more solid 55-45 Rossi district.
-The 1st doesn't change too much, being a 56-44 Murray district.
-The 7th is still solid Democrat (75-25 Murray)



All things considered, the 7th becomes pretty ridiculous looking losing South Seattle and extending to Bellevue. Nobody on the Eastside would like this map, having the region even more mutilated than it already is and put into three districts despite only having ~400,000 people. And the 9th is only 52-48 minority. It does, however, become much more Democratic, voting 65-35 Murray.

[CultureKing]

Doesn't Dicks live in Mason (Belfair)?

[Meeker]

Doesn't Dicks live in Mason (Belfair)?

Yeah, Dicks lives just south of Belfair on State Route 106. At least North Mason has to stay in the 6th.

As bgwah's map shows, we can have both a majority-minority district and an Olympia-based 10th. The issue is that Smith isn't going to be a fan of the 9th becoming majority-minority for obvious reasons.

ETA: In fact Smith doesn't even live in the 9th under bgwah's map.

[bgwah]

I don't really expect the majority-minority CD to happen, looking at that map. Besides, it's not like whites wouldn't still dominate the district.

The LD doesn't seem impossible, though.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Here's something that the people who frequent this thread might be interested in:

http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/WAStateRedistricting.html

[Kevinstat]

How many people in the built-up Selah/Yakima portion of the 8th? Any way that could be avoided, perhaps by a huge counterclockwise shift?

It's about 55,000 people. It could be avoided with a 3rd taking more of Yakima --> 8th taking more of Pierce --> 10th taking in most of Lewis. This would result in another county getting split up though, along with the 10th becoming more Republican.

It's unfortunate for those affected, but as with the current map (which splits Olympia right down the middle) someone somewhere is going to have be split up to make the numbers work.

What if the 8th district was the only district to cross the Cascades, not just the only district to cross the Cascades north of the Columbia River Gorge + the range(s) that the Satus Pass crosses, but the Cascades period (or rather the line between Whatcom, Skagit, Snohomish, King, Pierce, Lewis and Skamania counties on the one hand and Okanogan, Chelan, Kittitas, Yakima and Klickitat counties on the other)?  After Kittitas County, how much of Yakima County could go into the 8th district?  Could all of the core Yakima area be included in the 8th district without the 4th district (which would include the remainder of Yakima County and Klickitat County, as well as the Tri-Cities area, the line between the 4th and 5th perhaps becoming more a line of latitude) relying on the Satus Pass for functional contiguity (ie. all of the 4th district's portion of Yakima County connected by decent roads to Benton County; one could pretend that the Satus pass was at the Klickitat-Yakima boundary to avoind splitting Klickitat County, or better yet have southern Yakima County (but a portion connected to Benton County via decent roads) in the 4th along with Klickitat to make the distinction between Satus Pass and the county boundary irrelevant)?  How many people live in Klickitat County north of Satus (or Yakima County south of Satus) anyway?  Sounder spoke in page 1 of this thread as if his map (which used the Klickitat-Yakima boundary as a boundary between congressional districts) relied on Snoqualmie Pass for functional contiguity rather than Satus Pass, and through all the dabate as to Snoqualmie v. Satus I don't remember people pointing out the range(s) Satus crosses doesn't follow a county boundary.

If Yakima County were still to be deeply divided under such a plan, perhaps some of Skamania County could remain in or some more territory go to the 4th to make for a less deep division of Yakima.  Alternatively, some of Klickitat county could go into a Western Washington district if that made sense from a community of interest perspective.  I know most people here want to have the one trans-Cascade district go along the Columbia Gorge but I thought I'd get people thinking about how the boundary between the 4th and the (3rd?) in a crossing Snoqualmie scenario could be further west than Satus and the Klickitat-Benton county boundary.  Isn't Klickitat county considered part of Eastern Washington (as opposed to Western Washington) after all?

[muon2]

I'm still somewhat partial to my Yakima-Vancouver connection.

The consensus seems to be that the Snoqualmie Pass link is undesirable, but so is a split of Yakima city. The discussion about using US 12 as a connection led me an idea. One can keep Yakima intact and connect it to Vancouver by way of US 12 and I 5. It does put Longview and Kelso in two different districts, but that doesn't seem as bad as some other alternatives.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Starting to sound like Washington as is shouldn't be a state if it's so hard to get to one side from another, not that I'd support splitting it as that'd benefit Republicans.

[minionofmidas]

Starting to sound like Washington as is shouldn't be a state.

Well duh, it should be a province.

[CultureKing]

Starting to sound like Washington as is shouldn't be a state.

Well duh, it should be a province.

Hmm... I wouldn't be too opposed to Washington joining Canada. Although my personal dream is to see Cascadia become a reality.

[CultureKing]

Ok... I tried to take a stab at two Cascade crossings. Basically Reichart gets to take in Kittitas and Chelan counties, helping to make his district much, much more moderate. Although in this map I do have the 8th gaining a little bit of Redmond which serves to cancel out many of the conservatives on the east side of the mountains.

Looking at the map I think the most important/difficult task for the redistricting group will be deciding where to draw the lines in Central King county between the 8th and the 9th districts.

Anyways, here you go:






...And numbers!

CD1:  55D 45R (73.5% white) Basically solid D.

CD2:  51.3D 48.7R (79.2% white) I think(?) this is about the same, it would mean that Larsen would always be somewhat vulnerable. It would be hard to get this district very reliably democratic. Slight lean D.

CD3:  44.7D 55.3R (81.5% white) And Herrera jumps for joy at seeing her new and improved district, Solid R. Note: yes, the Yakima county portion of the district is ugly, but it seems that the East side of the state will have to somehow be split in a not-so-lovely fashion anyway you look at it.

CD4:  34.8D 65.2R (58.9% white) Stays solidly R, interesting to note that the white percentage bumps down to below 60% though.

CD5:  41.8D 58.2R (85.5% white) Also solidly R, also note that the two Eastern Washington districts are both the most and least white.

CD6:  53.3D 46.7R (73% white) Moderate D, should be pretty easy for Dicks to hold, also he gets to keep hold of all his precious military bases (McChord, Lewis and even gets to add Bangor to the mix)

CD7:  81.4D 18.6R (63.7% white) Extremely partisan D. If only we could share the Seattle love.

CD8:  50.4D 49.6R (70.8% white) The district that sees the most change. While I added two Eastern Counties to the CD via Snoqualmie Pass the CD remains a tossup. Should the parts of Renton that are in the district get cut out it would probably become a lean R district.

CD9:  52.5D 47.5R (60.4% white) Becomes much more compact and logical. Also remains a lean D district, I think Smith would be fairly happy with this result.

CD10: 51.2D 48.8R (78.7% white) The new district takes in the Olympic Penninsula (except for Mason which stays in the 6th thanks to Dicks living there), Olympia and parts of rural Pierce county. This would be a dynamic district that could move either way in the next few elections although at the moment it would enter into the scene as a slight D leaning district.

Honestly after looking this over I think I still prefer a district that crosses over via the Columbia (basically the 3rd taking in Yakima), it would mean there are only three CDs in the East rather than 4. And personally I refuse to connect Yakima to the 8th, for some reason Chelan and Wenatchee make more sense to me than Yakima.

Thoughts?