US House Redistricting: Washington

[bgwah]

So, if understand the dynamics in WA with 10 seats, then there is a conundrum on the east side. Either Yakima is split with the city and its immediate suburbs in different districts, or there is a transcasade link over the Snoqualmie Pass.

The numbers would also seem to support keeping Yakima intact (except perhaps for the IR) and the Cascades inviolate, but linking Benton county to Klickitat. I assume that is just as bad politically as the other options, since it would split the tri-cities.

Based on precedence (including the current 15th legislative district), I'm fairly certain Yakima County will be split.

It's really quite interesting how closely the districts have come to splitting nicely East-West over the past several decades, and I've been saying for a long time that if we get a 10th district that we'll end up with a district containing significant portions of both sides of the state.

[CultureKing]

Taking that into account, here's a new version. I put Island County into the Olympic Peninsula seat because I wanted a separate Olympia seat, and Island County was the only other easily accessible place (via ferry from Port Townsend) that didn't quite feel like I was drawing a seat across the Puget Sound. Still had to split off a bit of western Thurston County, unfortunately.

I think there are too many county splits in that map:
King: 6 CDs
Pierce: 4 CDs
Thurston 3 CDs

Also how is the 3rd CD linked exactly? Does it link across White Pass? I guess I am not sure if there is even a road between Skamania and Eastern Lewis County. I will say that your map is nice in that it provides a 7-3 democratic advantage 

[Verily]

Taking that into account, here's a new version. I put Island County into the Olympic Peninsula seat because I wanted a separate Olympia seat, and Island County was the only other easily accessible place (via ferry from Port Townsend) that didn't quite feel like I was drawing a seat across the Puget Sound. Still had to split off a bit of western Thurston County, unfortunately.

I think there are too many county splits in that map:
King: 6 CDs
Pierce: 4 CDs
Thurston 3 CDs

Also how is the 3rd CD linked exactly? Does it link across White Pass? I guess I am not sure if there is even a road between Skamania and Eastern Lewis County. I will say that your map is nice in that it provides a 7-3 democratic advantage  

US-12 connects Lewis to Yakima, while US-97 connects Yakima to Klickitat. There's no connection directly from Lewis to Skamania. (There's also WA-410 that connects Yakima to Enumclaw, but I think it's seasonal.)

Some of the splits are gratuitous, in particular the WA-03 part of Thurston. And some of them, like Gig Harbor with WA-01, make more sense than not splitting the county.

Also, I designed an alternative that splits Seattle but keeps a distinct district for the eastern suburbs of King County. It doesn't seem possible to do so without splitting Seattle otherwise.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

FYI Jay Inslee used to represent WA-04, so even if he wasn't likely vacating his seat I'd say it doesn't matter much where he lives. The guy will move anywhere.

[Verily]

Here's another version devoted to reducing county splits. It also reintroduces the eastern King County district by splitting Seattle, although I don't think Reichert could win the WA-10 on this map (it now contains a lot more Democratic areas in northern King County and none of Pierce County).

King County is split four ways, Snohomish and Pierce are each split three ways, and Island, Yakima, Cowlitz and Spokane are each split two ways. Every other county is intact.

[minionofmidas]

Here's another version devoted to reducing county splits. It also reintroduces the eastern King County district by splitting Seattle, although I don't think Reichert could win the WA-10 on this map (it now contains a lot more Democratic areas in northern King County and none of Pierce County).

King County is split four ways, Snohomish and Pierce are each split three ways, and Island, Yakima, Cowlitz and Spokane are each split two ways. Every other county is intact.

This one has the advantage of a natural successor district for Reichert. Obviously the situation around Lewis county looks awkward, though I'm sure Herrera won't mind her new district.

[Sounder]

Some of the splits are gratuitous, in particular the WA-03 part of Thurston.

As a resident of there, I don't think it is a problem.  Thurston County is a weird animal.  The southern part identifies more with Centralia and Lewis County, the NW portion considers itself part of the Olympic Peninsula, Yelm and NE corner of the county are heavily influenced by Ft. Lewis and Pierce County. 

Splitting somewhere in Thurston County makes a lot of sense.  A lot more than that crazy trans-Cascade district the puts Longview and Vancouver in separate districts.  Doing the population math, the 3rd almost perfectly fits in Pacific, Lewis, Wahkiakum, Cowlitz, Clark, Skamania, and Klickitat Counties.   Makes geographical sense, and is clean.   Plus it all fits in the Portland TV market.   

[bgwah]

Longview can be kept in the third. Only a portion of NW Cowlitz County would need to be removed.

[Sounder]

Longview can be kept in the third. Only a portion of NW Cowlitz County would need to be removed.

SW Washington had 644,200 people on 7/09 according to OFM.   It is large enough to be its own district.   I do not see good logic in splitting it into multiple districts.   To get the remaining population it needs, it could go north into the Lewis County centric portion of Thurston County (Grand Mound) or head up the Columbia Gorge and take in Klickitat County, a Columbia River and former aluminum producing cousin of SW Washington.  

[CultureKing]

I kind of like Verily's second map, it looks pretty clean, neat. Though I feel like Seattlites would throw a fit over being split in two (though it would be nice to divide up the liberal vote to help in other places). In a bit I will try a democratic gerrymander even though nothing of the sort would happen because of the process.

[Verily]

Longview can be kept in the third. Only a portion of NW Cowlitz County would need to be removed.

SW Washington had 644,200 people on 7/09 according to OFM.   It is large enough to be its own district.   I do not see good logic in splitting it into multiple districts.   To get the remaining population it needs, it could go north into the Lewis County centric portion of Thurston County (Grand Mound) or head up the Columbia Gorge and take in Klickitat County, a Columbia River and former aluminum producing cousin of SW Washington.  

Except, if you do that, you're going to have to make an even more outrageous split crossing the mountains further north. Someone is going to have to be split up, and the Vancouver/Longview area makes the most sense. Plus, the two have very little in common; Vancouver consists solely of tax evaders from Oregon and is the only place in the state growing significantly faster than the average while Longview is old industry and is in decline.

[jimrtex]

According to the OFM, Eastern Washington grew more slowly than Western Washington.

Not very much slower.  If Washington had kept 9 districts, to keep the two in balance requires little more than moving Skamania to the east.

Going from 9 to 10 means that Eastern Washington goes from about 2 to 2.2 districts, and you have to shift 130,000 to the west.  You have 3 choices:

1) Really ugly split of Yakima County
2) Really ugly split of Tri-Cities
3) Kittitas and Chelan go west.

With most all the western population close to I-5, you end up with the districts pretty much chopping off pieces from north to south (start in Vancouver and go north until the district is full; continue in Olypmpia into Tacoma, etc.  Or you can start in Bellingham and go south.  So the 8th western district goes somewhere in the middle in the Seattle area.  But King County grew slower than the state, so to make room for the new seat it has too bulge outward.  But if you can add 130,000 in the middle, rather than the southern end, the changes are less dramatic.

[bgwah]

According to the OFM, Eastern Washington grew more slowly than Western Washington.

Not very much slower.  If Washington had kept 9 districts, to keep the two in balance requires little more than moving Skamania to the east.

Going from 9 to 10 means that Eastern Washington goes from about 2 to 2.2 districts, and you have to shift 130,000 to the west.  You have 3 choices:

1) Really ugly split of Yakima County
2) Really ugly split of Tri-Cities
3) Kittitas and Chelan go west.

With most all the western population close to I-5, you end up with the districts pretty much chopping off pieces from north to south (start in Vancouver and go north until the district is full; continue in Olypmpia into Tacoma, etc.  Or you can start in Bellingham and go south.  So the 8th western district goes somewhere in the middle in the Seattle area.  But King County grew slower than the state, so to make room for the new seat it has too bulge outward.  But if you can add 130,000 in the middle, rather than the southern end, the changes are less dramatic.

I'm well aware that the Westside only grew a little bit more quickly. I have a huge post about half written up on WA redistricting that covers this... I will post it soon when I'm done.

[Sounder]

Except, if you do that, you're going to have to make an even more outrageous split crossing the mountains further north.

The outrageous split is pairing Yakima with Vancouver.  Greater distance apart, higher elevation mountain passes with two lane roads as opposed to interstate freeway, less direct links, different TV markets...  Snoqualmie Pass is the cleanest link. 

Plus I disagree with your Longview/Vancouver comments.  Both are Columbia River ports.  Camas and Longview are both paper towns.  Plenty of former Oregonians and commuters north of the Clark County line in Woodland and Kalama.

[Sounder]

Vancouver consists solely of tax evaders from Oregon and is the only place in the state growing significantly faster than the average while Longview is old industry and is in decline.

That isn't true either.  

Fastest growing places over the last couple years:

1). Tri-Cities +5.4%
2). Grant County +3.7%
3). Olympia +2.9%
4). Kittitas County 2.8%
5). Vancouver +2.7%

[Verily]

Vancouver consists solely of tax evaders from Oregon and is the only place in the state growing significantly faster than the average while Longview is old industry and is in decline.

That isn't true either.  

Fastest growing places over the last couple years:

1). Tri-Cities +5.4%
2). Grant County +3.7%
3). Olympia +2.9%
4). Kittitas County 2.8%
5). Vancouver +2.7%

The Tri-Cities are embedded in a declining region, though. WA-04, although growing faster than the state as a whole, grew much more slowly than WA-03, and also slower than WA-02, and only barely faster than WA-09.

Somewhat surprisingly, the slowest-growing seat was WA-08, followed by WA-05. WA-01 and WA-06 lagged slightly, while WA-07 pretty much kept pace with the state as a whole.


Deviation from ideal (on a 9-district map) as of the 2009 estimates

WA-03 (Vancouver/Longview/Olympia): +41,828
WA-02 (Everett/Bellingham): +14,539
WA-04 (Tri-Cities): +10,443
WA-09 (Tacoma/Federal Way/Lacey): +6,223

WA-07 (Seattle): -3,213
WA-06 (Olympia Peninsula/Tacoma): -7,986
WA-01 (Kirkland/Edmonds/Shoreline): -11,127
WA-05 (Spokane): -21,238
WA-08 (Bellevue): -29,473

[bgwah]

Verily, I think you're using the completely inaccurate numbers from Dave's Redistricting App... Here are the estimates from the OFM. The 8th is the fastest growing district.

Ideal district population: 673,325
1st:  740,097 (66,772)
2nd:  764,906 (91,581)
3rd:  788,476 (115,151)
4th:  763,722 (90,397)
5th:  723,794 (50,469)
6th:  707, 393 (34,068)
7th:  707,220 (33,895)
8th:  811,073 (137,748)
9th:  726,568 (53,243)

[Sounder]

The Tri-Cities are embedded in a declining region, though.

Not according to the population trends.  5 of the 6 fastest growing counties in WA are in or partly in the 4th.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

WA-8 grew the fastest, WA-7 and WA-6 the slowest:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013739074_redistricting.html



You are a fountain of misinformation it seems.

[muon2]

According to the OFM, Eastern Washington grew more slowly than Western Washington.

Not very much slower.  If Washington had kept 9 districts, to keep the two in balance requires little more than moving Skamania to the east.

Going from 9 to 10 means that Eastern Washington goes from about 2 to 2.2 districts, and you have to shift 130,000 to the west.  You have 3 choices:

1) Really ugly split of Yakima County
2) Really ugly split of Tri-Cities
3) Kittitas and Chelan go west.

With most all the western population close to I-5, you end up with the districts pretty much chopping off pieces from north to south (start in Vancouver and go north until the district is full; continue in Olypmpia into Tacoma, etc.  Or you can start in Bellingham and go south.  So the 8th western district goes somewhere in the middle in the Seattle area.  But King County grew slower than the state, so to make room for the new seat it has too bulge outward.  But if you can add 130,000 in the middle, rather than the southern end, the changes are less dramatic.

So, of the three ugly choices, which would you support as a member of the redistricting commission? As I understand the process in WA, the legislature can only shift up to 2% of a district's population after the commission submits a map. That would suggest that whichever of these three paths is selected by the commission cannot be changed by legislative amendment.

[jimrtex]

According to the OFM, Eastern Washington grew more slowly than Western Washington.

Not very much slower.  If Washington had kept 9 districts, to keep the two in balance requires little more than moving Skamania to the east.

Going from 9 to 10 means that Eastern Washington goes from about 2 to 2.2 districts, and you have to shift 130,000 to the west.  You have 3 choices:

1) Really ugly split of Yakima County
2) Really ugly split of Tri-Cities
3) Kittitas and Chelan go west.

With most all the western population close to I-5, you end up with the districts pretty much chopping off pieces from north to south (start in Vancouver and go north until the district is full; continue in Olypmpia into Tacoma, etc.  Or you can start in Bellingham and go south.  So the 8th western district goes somewhere in the middle in the Seattle area.  But King County grew slower than the state, so to make room for the new seat it has too bulge outward.  But if you can add 130,000 in the middle, rather than the southern end, the changes are less dramatic.

So, of the three ugly choices, which would you support as a member of the redistricting commission? As I understand the process in WA, the legislature can only shift up to 2% of a district's population after the commission submits a map. That would suggest that whichever of these three paths is selected by the commission cannot be changed by legislative amendment.

(3) Because it also minimizes the changes in other districts.

I'm going to try to move all the excess population into CD 8 and 9 and then split that into three districts.  I think I would be tempted to try and swap Olympia and Tacoma, so that CD 6 becomes Olympia, Bremerton, and the Olympic Peninsula.   So CD 1 transfers its portion of Kitsap to CD 6, and CD 3 shifts its excess to CD 6, CD 9 shifts its portion of Thurston, and perhaps the area around Fort Lewis to CD 6.  This hopefully will produce enough to move Tacoma into CD 9.

I move Chelan and Kittitas to CD 8, along with the excess from CD 2 and CD 7 (CD 1 may need a little to make up for the loss of the Kitsap part of its district.  8 and 9 now have enough ti create 3 districts.  If this works out the Tacoma district becomes CD 10.

[bgwah]

If you want to make a realistic map, I would recommend crossing at Skamania-Klickitat.

Of course, with Dave's redistricting app underestimating WA-8's population by 100,000 or so, I wouldn't concern myself with the 8th's boundaries too much.

[jimrtex]

If you want to make a realistic map, I would recommend crossing at Skamania-Klickitat.

I you use Washington's numbers, the counties east of the Cascades are entitled to almost 2 of 9 districts (it is a tiny bit short which can be made by including Skamania in the east.

But with 10 representatives, it comes out to 9.2, which means 140,000 people from the East have to be added to West.  If that is not realistic, then it is because Washington's numbers are not realistic.

If you cross in the south, then you either have to split Yakima County or Benton County.   Most of the population in Yakima County is in the north, so the split ends up being in or very near the city of Yakima.  In Benton County, you could end up splitting Richland from Kennewick, and probably end up splitting one or the other cities.

Of course, with Dave's redistricting app underestimating WA-8's population by 100,000 or so, I wouldn't concern myself with the 8th's boundaries too much.

You naively assumed that I even looked at Dave's redistricting app.

[muon2]

According to the OFM, Eastern Washington grew more slowly than Western Washington.

Not very much slower.  If Washington had kept 9 districts, to keep the two in balance requires little more than moving Skamania to the east.

Going from 9 to 10 means that Eastern Washington goes from about 2 to 2.2 districts, and you have to shift 130,000 to the west.  You have 3 choices:

1) Really ugly split of Yakima County
2) Really ugly split of Tri-Cities
3) Kittitas and Chelan go west.

With most all the western population close to I-5, you end up with the districts pretty much chopping off pieces from north to south (start in Vancouver and go north until the district is full; continue in Olypmpia into Tacoma, etc.  Or you can start in Bellingham and go south.  So the 8th western district goes somewhere in the middle in the Seattle area.  But King County grew slower than the state, so to make room for the new seat it has too bulge outward.  But if you can add 130,000 in the middle, rather than the southern end, the changes are less dramatic.

So, of the three ugly choices, which would you support as a member of the redistricting commission? As I understand the process in WA, the legislature can only shift up to 2% of a district's population after the commission submits a map. That would suggest that whichever of these three paths is selected by the commission cannot be changed by legislative amendment.

(3) Because it also minimizes the changes in other districts.

I projected the eastern county populations forward to 4/1/2010 using recent population changes. Based on that It looks like CD 5 would shift Walla Walla to CD 4 and have all but 2 K people from Adams or Columbia and be on the mark.

Then, according to option 3, Klickitat goes to CD 3 and Kittitas and Chelan go to CD 8. I project CD 4 would now be about 8 K over population. One possibility to fix this would be to add East Wenatchee from Douglas to CD 8 and then put the eastern half of Klickitat in CD 4.

Finally CD 3 would only have to lose its portion of Thurston to be over by about 6 K. Presumably it could lose eastern Lewis to whichever district has the rest of Mt Ranier.

This would seem to do less to split communities of interest on the east side than either of the other alternatives.

[Sounder]

Washington State Office of Financial Management has 4/10 estimates.  OFM has access to the state's licensing data, so their numbers are pretty good.  In 2000, their estimates beat the census bureau estimates.  The numbers will be off slightly, as OFM estimates place the state's population at 6,733,250 while the 2010 count released last week was 6,724,540.

According to OFM:

Spokane, Stevens, Pend Oreille, Ferry, Okanogan, Lincoln, Adams, Whitman, Asotin, Garfield: 672,850

Benton, Franklin, Walla Walla, Columbia, Grant, Douglas, Yakima: 677,450

Clark, Cowlitz, Lewis, Pacific, Waukiakum, Skamania, Klickitat: 668,850


The Adams Panhandle and the East Wenatchee bench are both good places to even out the population counts.   Using the OFM #s, it looks like the 3rd above would have to grow slightly, so I had them adding the Westport Peninsula.  It is a natural geographic split from the rest of Grays Harbor County and unites Grayland Beach into a single district.

[Sounder]

If you want to make a realistic map, I would recommend crossing at Skamania-Klickitat.

Then what?  Climb over desolate Satus Pass and snag some distant population from Yakima?  Continue along the desolate Columbia and split up the Tri-Cities? 

There will be 10 Congressional Districts, you need to throw out your old way of thinking.   A lot has changed in the last 40 years.  For one, the Tri-Cities and Vancouver are both significant population centers.   And I doubt that 40 years ago a significant percent of the working population of Kittitas County commuted to King County for work.