US House Redistricting: Washington

[Meeker]

The only time a CD will cross the Cascades is along the Columbia.

The only time a CD will cross the Cascades is along the Columbia.

The only time a CD will cross the Cascades is along the Columbia.

If you don't already understand this, repeat it to yourself enough times until you do...

[Meeker]

I'm not going to go into too many details, but I'll say I've had multiple lengthy conversations with those directly involved in the process (including one of the members of the Redistricting Commission). You can value that as much as you wish.

The Commission itself isn't entirely opposed to the notion of a King/Kittitas district. The issue is local elected and community leaders - whose input is valued immensely in practice - are extremely opposed to being included in a district with Western Washington. They consider themselves Easterners and want to remain in a district with other Easterners. They don't feel they'll be represented by a district that crosses the Cascades. The political enmity between Eastern WA vs. Western WA runs high.

Unless the folks in Cle Elum decide for whatever reason they don't care anymore (breaking 120+ years of habit...) a district connected by one of the passes simply isn't going to happen. The Washington redistricting process isn't a touchy-feely, non-partisan exercise. It's a very political process that involves a lot of compromise and intangibles that no one outside of party insiders really notice.

[Meeker]

Butt hurt? What does that even mean?

Anyways, your obsession with me is getting kind of weird, dude. You've got some issues to work out.

[Meeker]

The Republicans have named their nominees to the Redistricting Commission: Former Gig Harbor State Rep. Tom Huff and (gag) Slade Gorton.

[Meeker]

In Inslee's defense, there was a run for Governor in between those Congressional runs.

[Meeker]

Those stupid Cascades .

I'm not totally opposed to how you drew the new 8th, while it is certainly way more Republican and it crosses over, it's still competitive, however, two crossings + a three way split of Yakima County is too much.... It was better when it was just between the third and eighth.

It could be done, but then the 8th has to do this ugly thing into Wenatchee. It's a question of whether you divide Yakima County three ways or divide Yakima County and Chelan County two ways each.

There could also be potential for the 3rd to pick up more of Yakima --> the 8th to pick up more of Pierce --> the 10th to pick up more of Lewis. Then you have to start splitting another county though.

[Meeker]

For the record, I agree with both of you. Unfortunately I don't see it changing anytime soon though. It would require a constitutional amendment and it makes little sense from a self-preservation perspective for the state legislature to change the system.

[Meeker]

How many people in the built-up Selah/Yakima portion of the 8th? Any way that could be avoided, perhaps by a huge counterclockwise shift?

It's about 55,000 people. It could be avoided with a 3rd taking more of Yakima --> 8th taking more of Pierce --> 10th taking in most of Lewis. This would result in another county getting split up though, along with the 10th becoming more Republican.

It's unfortunate for those affected, but as with the current map (which splits Olympia right down the middle) someone somewhere is going to have be split up to make the numbers work.

[Meeker]

Doesn't Dicks live in Mason (Belfair)?

Yeah, Dicks lives just south of Belfair on State Route 106. At least North Mason has to stay in the 6th.

As bgwah's map shows, we can have both a majority-minority district and an Olympia-based 10th. The issue is that Smith isn't going to be a fan of the 9th becoming majority-minority for obvious reasons.

ETA: In fact Smith doesn't even live in the 9th under bgwah's map.

[Meeker]

You're giving Dicks way too much of Pierce. He doesn't have Lakewood or Fort Lewis/McChord right now and isn't going to be picking them up.

[Meeker]

You're giving Dicks way too much of Pierce. He doesn't have Lakewood or Fort Lewis/McChord right now and isn't going to be picking them up.

But wouldn't that entail him keeping his hold on Clallam and Jefferson counties?

Yup. Give him back Clallam and Jefferson and give the non-Tacoma parts of Pierce to the 10th.

[Meeker]

I like that map better than your previous versions, Muon, but I still can't see them ever using a Lewis-Yakima crossing.

I don't understand why a path along the Columbia then across the Satus Pass is considered better than White Pass. In the end both connect Vancouver and Yakima. Am I missing something?

There's a number of reasons. Part of it is historical precedence. Part of it is that White Pass can get treacherous to go over during the winter. Part of it is that the southern part of Yakima County fits in with Klickitat and Skamania while putting Yakima proper with Vancouver just feels weird, especially if they aren't connected through anything besides White Pass.

While it might make sense from outsider perspective, it's not going to happen. No one will want it, including Herrera.

[Meeker]

Including Yakima proper in the 3rd is fine so long as it includes a significant part of the rest of the county along with Klickitat. Having Yakima proper being the only part of the area in a western Washington CD isn't going to fly. And relying on US 12 as the only connector won't fly either.

[Meeker]

Dang, still stuck in with Lewis county. And Bgwah, what's so bad about Heck? He actually seems to be pretty on top of things to me (and ran a pretty good race last year considering the wave).

It seems pretty likely that Thurston and Lewis will end up in the same district. And Denny Heck is boring, that's what!

[Meeker]

I think it's pretty realistic. The only critique I'd have is to have the 1st and 2nd try to trade some territory to make the 2nd more Democratic and the 1st more Republican.

[Meeker]

I think it's pretty realistic. The only critique I'd have is to have the 1st and 2nd try to trade some territory to make the 2nd more Democratic and the 1st more Republican.

I can tinker with the border a bit more. I don't want it to look too goofy by having some weird tentacle going even further into SW Snohomish.

I may also tinker a bit more with the Yakima area.

I'm thinking I'll probably "submit" something like this as my map though. I know it's probably fairly pointless and the commission doesn't care at all and the whole process is just supposed to make it look like they care what the public thinks, but it can't hurt to try!

They do take public input into account... just so long as it doesn't really affect the partisan outcome of the final maps.

[Meeker]

I think it's pretty realistic. The only critique I'd have is to have the 1st and 2nd try to trade some territory to make the 2nd more Democratic and the 1st more Republican.

I can tinker with the border a bit more. I don't want it to look too goofy by having some weird tentacle going even further into SW Snohomish.

I may also tinker a bit more with the Yakima area.

I'm thinking I'll probably "submit" something like this as my map though. I know it's probably fairly pointless and the commission doesn't care at all and the whole process is just supposed to make it look like they care what the public thinks, but it can't hurt to try!

They do take public input into account... just so long as it doesn't really affect the partisan outcome of the final maps.

How inspiring.

Do you think I should submit my map? I really don't want be in some awful Bellevue-to-Wentachee district!

Can't hurt.

[Meeker]

Oh, this was today?

[Meeker]

These maps are just so amateur...

And yes, Meeker, it was today! I'm surprised you haven't been following. Looks like Heck might get shafted, with Smith taking Olympia so as to leave South King County for a "majority-minority" district.

I think you may have misunderstood the tone of my post.

[Meeker]

The final map will look nothing like any of these drafts. I wouldn't give them too much thought.

[Meeker]

The final map will look nothing like any of these drafts. I wouldn't give them too much thought.

How can you be so sure?

The 1991 drafts looked nothing like the final map.

[Meeker]

LD maps sux

Huff's map is particularly bad in this department. Take a look at his drawings of the 2nd and 28th.

[Meeker]

What are the odds that the Commission will fail to agree on a plan, and let the Washington Supreme Court do it?  Do the Washington gurus have any opinion on that?

Won't happen. The Republicans would much rather take whatever deal the Democrats offer them than risk a court drawn map that would endanger Reichert.

[Meeker]

What are the odds that the Commission will fail to agree on a plan, and let the Washington Supreme Court do it?  Do the Washington gurus have any opinion on that?

Won't happen. The Republicans would much rather take whatever deal the Democrats offer them than risk a court drawn map that would endanger Reichert.

If the Democrats actually believe that, it will end up in the Courts. The Republicans aren't going to be that stupid. Already, three of the commissioner have chosen to cross the Cascades in the same way. Seems like we have an agreement on the first element of the final map. Given how much his district shifts East, Reichert would really have to be screwed not to have a better district.

The issue is the new seat. Democrats have been spouting the meme that the final map will be a trade of given Reichert a better seat for giving the Democrats the new seat. The reality is that the bulk of the growth has been in the four districts represented by Republicans. Drawing a fifth Republican seat is as easy of a task as drawing a sixth Democratic district. The natural compromise would be keeping the five Democrats, strengthening Reichert, and drawing a "fair fight" district.

Wrong. Democratic commissioners also have an incentive to keep incumbent members happy and keep them in their existing districts. That wouldn't happen under a court drawn plan. That leaves us in a situation where both sides have strong incentive not to go to court but one side (the D's) have slightly more leverage.

[Meeker]

My favorite comments from the Seattle Times article about the majority-minority proposals:

"You will be like SHARECROPPERS in the nation your ancestors founded."

"Pathetic. Racist voting districts, nothing more."

"The ruling Corporatist Statist party divides itself into Republicans and Democrats to give the illusion of choice to the public so that voting for one or the other is still giving legitimacy to a Corporatist Statist Elite. Citizens arise, Blow it up."

"We already have a minority congressman.Comrade Mc Dermott could not get ecected in 85 % of the districts in the US."