US House Redistricting: Florida

[muon2]

With a Republican-appointed court, the Florida GOP probably has enough wiggle-room within the regulations to limit Democratic gains to (at most) nine 'reasonably safe' (at least 55.0%) seats and one swing district that leans slightly Democratic (as well about ten swing districts that lean Republican); if Bill Young chooses to run in a 'natural' St. Petersburg seat (about 56.3% Democrat), then there is a reasonable chance that he would win.  Barring a nationwide landslide, the best-case scenario for the Republicans therefore seems to be 19-8.

The VRA will enable at leat three hispanic seats (including one Democratic coastal district) and one black seat centered around Miami-Dade, and its likely that the gerrymandered Alcee Hastings seat will be protected as well.  Interestingly, it seems that the Republicans would probably do better with an Orlando vote sink than they would with a majority-black Corrine Brown district (at least it seems that way within the limitations of DRA), as the latter seems to produce two extra Democratic-leaning swing districts.

I wonder if the VRA will protect Corrine Brown's extreme gerrymander?

If were based solely on the proportion of the population there would be 6 Hispanic and 4 Black majority districts.

[lowtech redneck]

With a Republican-appointed court, the Florida GOP probably has enough wiggle-room within the regulations to limit Democratic gains to (at most) nine 'reasonably safe' (at least 55.0%) seats and one swing district that leans slightly Democratic (as well about ten swing districts that lean Republican); if Bill Young chooses to run in a 'natural' St. Petersburg seat (about 56.3% Democrat), then there is a reasonable chance that he would win.  Barring a nationwide landslide, the best-case scenario for the Republicans therefore seems to be 19-8.

The VRA will enable at leat three hispanic seats (including one Democratic coastal district) and one black seat centered around Miami-Dade, and its likely that the gerrymandered Alcee Hastings seat will be protected as well.  Interestingly, it seems that the Republicans would probably do better with an Orlando vote sink than they would with a majority-black Corrine Brown district (at least it seems that way within the limitations of DRA), as the latter seems to produce two extra Democratic-leaning swing districts.

I wonder if the VRA will protect Corrine Brown's extreme gerrymander?

If were based solely on the proportion of the population there would be 6 Hispanic and 4 Black majority districts.

The spread-out nature of the minority population in Florida prohibits that; its well-documented enough that Republicans should have no additional problems on that front.  The question is whether Corrine Brown's district (I don't think its technically a VRA district, but the rulings on this matter are anything but consistent) is protected, given the fact that it could easily be made into an extremely ugly VRA district.

All that said, I'm still pretty new at redistricting politics and gaming, so it wouldn't be that surprising if I missed something. 

[DrScholl]

Brown's district is not VRA protected, it's not 50% Black and completely violates the amendments passed. That's why Brown was fighting so hard against it, there's no way that she could survive under a clean map.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I suppose we could consider the New Zealand system.

[lowtech redneck]

Brown's district is not VRA protected, it's not 50% Black and completely violates the amendments passed. That's why Brown was fighting so hard against it, there's no way that she could survive under a clean map.

If my findings are correct, then I hope you're right; it just doesn't seem that there are any consistent standards for this, though.  As an example, do you think the courts would have allowed the Georgia Republicans to turn Sanford Bishop's district into a 'leaning Republican' swing district (it wouldn't have been difficult) if they so desired?  The fact that it's technically possible to make the district majority-black without any major alterations might make the courts decide in Corrine Brown's favor.  The VRA (as interpreted by the courts) trumps other redistricting regulations after all....

[muon2]

Brown's district is not VRA protected, it's not 50% Black and completely violates the amendments passed. That's why Brown was fighting so hard against it, there's no way that she could survive under a clean map.

FL-3 is over 50% black VAP by counting black alone or in combination with other races. The difficulty is keeping it over 50% while adding almost 40 K people to bring it up to the required population.

[DrScholl]

If my findings are correct, then I hope you're right; it just doesn't seem that there are any consistent standards for this, though.  As an example, do you think the courts would have allowed the Georgia Republicans to turn Sanford Bishop's district into a 'leaning Republican' swing district (it wouldn't have been difficult) if they so desired?  The fact that it's technically possible to make the district majority-black without any major alterations might make the courts decide in Corrine Brown's favor.  The VRA (as interpreted by the courts) trumps other redistricting regulations after all....

Bishop's district was only plurality black overall and plurality by VAP, it wasn't really protected. They could have attempted that, but it was more in their interest to put more black voters into Bishop's district to strengthen a neighboring district.

Brown's district was drawn as a Democratic vote sink. You got get it to 50%, but it would make for a very oddly drawn district, which the courts probably wouldn't like.

FL-3 is over 50% black VAP by counting black alone or in combination with other races. The difficulty is keeping it over 50% while adding almost 40 K people to bring it up to the required population.

It's about 44% Black in VAP now. With it possible to draw a compact minority-majority district in Orlando, that could clearly be seen as a successor district to Brown's current seat, at least it could to the court.

[muon2]

If my findings are correct, then I hope you're right; it just doesn't seem that there are any consistent standards for this, though.  As an example, do you think the courts would have allowed the Georgia Republicans to turn Sanford Bishop's district into a 'leaning Republican' swing district (it wouldn't have been difficult) if they so desired?  The fact that it's technically possible to make the district majority-black without any major alterations might make the courts decide in Corrine Brown's favor.  The VRA (as interpreted by the courts) trumps other redistricting regulations after all....

Bishop's district was only plurality black overall and plurality by VAP, it wasn't really protected. They could have attempted that, but it was more in their interest to put more black voters into Bishop's district to strengthen a neighboring district.

Brown's district was drawn as a Democratic vote sink. You got get it to 50%, but it would make for a very oddly drawn district, which the courts probably wouldn't like.

FL-3 is over 50% black VAP by counting black alone or in combination with other races. The difficulty is keeping it over 50% while adding almost 40 K people to bring it up to the required population.

It's about 44% Black in VAP now. With it possible to draw a compact minority-majority district in Orlando, that could clearly be seen as a successor district to Brown's current seat, at least it could to the court.

I'm not sure where you get the 44% from. The US Census 2010 data reports that the single race BVAP is 48.9% for FL-03. There is an additional 1.5% VAP who report black in combination with another race. They count as well, so the total is over 50%.

[DrScholl]

I'm not sure where you get the 44% from. The US Census 2010 data reports that the single race BVAP is 48.9% for FL-03. There is an additional 1.5% VAP who report black in combination with another race. They count as well, so the total is over 50%.

I was looking at the redistricting app. Even with the 50%, the shape is what is the problem. NC-12 was struck down more than once because of how it was drawn. The courts do look at compactness to some extent even for the VRA.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The main thing is that Brown's seat was never drawn but because of the VRA, but by Brown herself backed by Republicans who wanted to use the district as a vote sink. It's nothing more than a standard Dem pack district.

[muon2]

I'm not sure where you get the 44% from. The US Census 2010 data reports that the single race BVAP is 48.9% for FL-03. There is an additional 1.5% VAP who report black in combination with another race. They count as well, so the total is over 50%.

I was looking at the redistricting app. Even with the 50%, the shape is what is the problem. NC-12 was struck down more than once because of how it was drawn. The courts do look at compactness to some extent even for the VRA.

The courts require compactness when necessary. NC-12 in 1992 was majority-black, but it failed to show the compelling state interest that justified the shape. The version from later in the decade was not a majority-black district, and eventually survived as a political but not racial gerrymander. IL-04 has survived because the non-compact form was the only way to achieve the VRA-protected district the past 20 years, and that did count as a compelling state interest.

I used DRA to get a new CD 3 that was over 49% BVAP. It's heavily gerrymandered with thinner connectors. I'm confident that it could break 50% at the block level, and probably does already if dual race white+black are added to the total (that's the DOJ standard).

Even though its ugly, it may be needed. FL is a section 5 state and that means its is subject to the no retrogression provision. Reducing the number of black-majority districts from 3 to 2 would be retrogression, and such a plan could fail a section 5 challenge. The compactness and respect for political boundaries in the new constitutional amendment are second tier requirements and explicitly defer to protection of racial and language minorities.

[Miles]

Here we go. The State Senate's Congressional draft.

[RBH]

CD10 and CD11 are brought to you by "Screw you Fair Districts Amendment!"

[Miles]

And 22 looks just as ugly as before.

[minionofmidas]

CD10 and CD11 are brought to you by "Screw you Fair Districts Amendment!"

Not to mention Orange County...

[krazen1211]

Certainly quite a bit better than before. Although that isn't saying much.

[minionofmidas]

Certainly quite a bit better than before. Although that isn't saying much.

Basically, obeying the law except where it would hurt them.

With a hilarious consequence in the mainland part of Monroe.

[Brittain33]

Also, it's like they knew some areas would be litigated and revised so they may as well just use a broad brush in Microsoft Paint.

[Brittain33]

Alcee Hastings lives in Pembroke Pines and is drawn out of his district.

[krazen1211]

Certainly quite a bit better than before. Although that isn't saying much.

Basically, obeying the law except where it would hurt them.

With a hilarious consequence in the mainland part of Monroe.

Yep. A lot of the white Republican districts are cleaned up. John Mica for instance is placed out of his district.

'Compactness' is of course exceptionally difficult to litigate.

[Brittain33]

John Mica for instance is placed out of his district.

His tendril to Winter Park was lost and Daniel Webster gained a tendril to Winter Park.

[krazen1211]

John Mica for instance is placed out of his district.

His tendril to Winter Park was lost and Daniel Webster gained a tendril to Winter Park.

I am confused as to what the purpose of that is other than to make the new district as Hispanic as possible. I believe its Hispanic VAP is in the 40s.

[minionofmidas]

John Mica for instance is placed out of his district.

His tendril to Winter Park was lost and Daniel Webster gained a tendril to Winter Park.

I am confused as to what the purpose of that is other than to make the new district as Hispanic as possible. I believe its Hispanic VAP is in the 40s.

And the purpose of that is... to make that double split of Orange and Polk easier to defend in court?

Looking at South Florida... the 23rd lost its southern extension, wonder how much to the Dem side it moved (nothern part of the gerry is of course easily defended because it borders a Black district, so no surprises it doesn't change much). Debbie Schultz gets a saner district.
21st is weird, but partly covered by precedent (a slightly larger part of Collier is currently in the 25th, and Hendry is split roughly across that same line though with a different district in the western half.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lawsuit time! The most likely result probably being the best too, that abomination being tossed a court-drawn map put in its place.

Though at least even under that Allen West is probably still toast and the Democrats could take FL-27 (though it'd have to be with someone other than Alan Grayson...which alone is enough reason to fight to get it tossed.)

[minionofmidas]

Lawsuit time! The most likely result probably being the best too, that abomination being tossed a court-drawn map put in its place.

Though at least even under that Allen West is probably still toast and the Democrats could take FL-27 (though it'd have to be with someone other than Alan Grayson...which alone is enough reason to fight to get it tossed.)

27 is a safe Democratic seat. It might still not end up as drawn - that 8th tendril is difficult to defend.
The only other part I would think problematic is 10/11.
There's no way the 3rd will be tossed if the legislature won't do it, I'm afraid.
Somewhere seen it claimed that West's new district is 55% Obama - not enough to doom him, but not favored against a strong challenger. The 16th is apparently also going to be highly swingy.