US House Redistricting: Florida

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Now that we know it has two new seats (ugh, I was soooooooooooooooo hoping it'd be denied the second due to its current decline, maybe it'll lose a seat in 2020 ), so I drew this new non-partisan map:





District analysis coming up...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

FL-01 (blue): Not much different from the current one. Very safe R seat.
FL-02 (green): Also not much different. This district isn't as conservative as the other ones Blue Dogs were bounced from, and it still has some white liberals, so it might flip back in a good year.
FL-03 (purple): Quite a safe R seat. It has Gainesville but I doubt that's enough.
FL-04 (red): South bit of Jacksonville plus some very Republican counties. Safe R.
FL-05 (yellow): Practically a pure toss-up.
FL-06 (teal): Very interesting seat. Very Republican Nassau county plus most of Jacksonville, including the black parts. About 35% black. Probably voted for Obama narrowly, but only due to a surge in black turnout. This one could flip all over the place depending on turnout models, kind of like OH-01. Of course the Democrats need to nominate someone other than Corrine Brown.
FL-07 (gray): Very safe R seat.
FL-08 (light purple): Very safe D seat now that the gerrymandering in this area has been eliminated. Capable of returning the glorious ALAN GRAYSON to office! YES YES YES YES YES YES!

FL-09 (teal): A bunch of boring suburbs and some Democratic areas. Call it an R-leaning swing seat.
FL-10 (pink): This is the seat that douchebag Webster who will be taking Alan Grayson's seat but isn't fit to shine Grayson's shoes will probably take. Pretty safe R.
FL-11 (olive): Coastal seat but pretty Republican. Only Democratic area is St. Lucie.
FL-12 (light blue): Interesting seat, the two counties were only about 51% McCain. But that's still R+6 or so, and this isn't an area where there's lots of swing voters on either side. Any non-horrendous Republican could probably hold it, but it would never be truly "safe".
FL-13 (pink): Once the now misnamed Young retires, this will flip. And he almost certainly will in the next 10 years.
FL-14 (brown): Tough to tell how this one voted with no partisan data, but must be pretty Republican.
FL-15 (orange): Not like the old gerrymandered monstrosity. A bit less safe, but any competent Democrat should easily hold it. Kathy Castor should have no problems.
FL-16 (light green): Pretty safe Republican seat.
FL-17 (dark purple): Same. That election-stealing douche Buchanan should hold easily.
FL-18 (yellow): Decently Republican, but flippable in a good year.
FL-19 (that weird greenish color): Very safe Republican seat. Hellhole.
FL-20 (pink): Majority black, Alcee Hastings' new seat.
FL-21 (maroon): Also majority black, Frederica Wilson will hold.
FL-22 (brown): The old gerrymandered monstrosity that black Republican nutjob will hold is gone. This one will flip Dem.
FL-23 (tealish): I don't know if Deutch or Wasserman-Schultz is more likely to run here, but either one will win.
FL-24 (purple): Same, the other one of the Jewish Democrats will win here.
FL-25 (dark pink): Cuban majority, that new nutjob or Diaz-Balart will hold it.
FL-26 (gray): Same, probably will be the seat for Diaz-Balart.
FL-27 (light green): Cuban majority, the weakest Cuban seat but a gay-friendly moderate like Ros-Lehtinen shouldn't have much problems.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I used the new population estimates. Just confirmed it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Your central Florida map is pretty much what I drew. I never considered that one could argue the new seat in the Orlando area is the successor to Corrine Brown's seat, though I don't see that going far with recent court decisions and the fact that it's about even black and Hispanic.

Since south Florida is just one giant mass I don't think not crossing county lines is that big of a deal, and even if honored to preserve Alcee Hastings seat you basically have to connect two completely different areas with a bunch of empty territory which is far more egregious than merely crossing the county to include black neighborhoods that straddle the border. Even the majority black Palm Beach seat there would no doubt violate the "communities of interest" rule but it'll be ignored no doubt, no one really has any reason to challenge it, even the Democrats wouldn't gain anything by dissolving the seat as it's not possible to draw any non-Cuban Republican districts in south Florida without resorting to a now illegal monstrosity to most districts described as gerrymandered monstrosities to shame like the current FL-22.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Thing is the mass in the Everglades is also majority black.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Most maps seem to have a new seat in the Dayton Beach area that would basically be a pure tossup. Kosmas actually lives in that area, she could probably make a comeback as the district isn't a gerrymandered monstrosity.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well FL-22 is without question gone.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't think the Orlando area will really be a loss, from what I've drawn while it's true that there will be obviously be a Dem district based around that could return ALAN GRAYSON (!!!!!!!!!!!!) it'll also have a new Republican district near it. That fundie woman-hating piece of sh!t Webster will probably stick around in a new seat.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'll try later, but let's think. You can draw a seat in inner Jacksonville with all the black areas, one around Dayton Beach, can get two seats out of Orlando, two out of the Tampa Bay area, two black seats in South Florida, get a barely Obama Cuban seat including the Florida keys (this is what Ros-Lehtinen's district is), and three other Dem seats in South Florida. That's 12. I guess you could get a seat in central Florida if you managed to get Osceola County to St. Lucie.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So there's still a Dem seat in the Orlando area? Exactly the reason the GOP wouldn't want to do this. Better to just make the Orlando seat the Dem pack one.

Plus 10 points for Obama isn't necessarily enough to elect the Glorious One Alan Grayson. I want a much stronger district.

BTW something I just realized about Allen West: As unpopular as the Ryan budget is nationwide, for fairly obvious reasons it is probably more unpopular in his district than any other district held by a Republican, even in its current abomination of a form. Meaning West would be in huge trouble in even the current seat if it was somehow preserved.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Democrats might not be happy if Brown's district is dismantled. You can easily draw a slightly-McCain district in Jacksonville without it looking like a gerrymander.

But we get a new Democratic seat in Orlando in return. And Brown is useless and corrupt, but we all know what American hero the Orlando seat could elect...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Even with a spike into Orlando, trying to deny the Democrats all other seats in the Orlando area would be a dummymander of the worst type. Of course even then the Democratic seat might be strong enough for our hero.

I don't think Grayson would have too much trouble in a primary even in a majority-minority seat. There's only two State Reps I see being serious and likely candidates, one is also white, the other is half Italian and half Puerto Rican. There's only one Democratic State Senator from the area, and while he is black, he was convicted of a felony in his first term for misuse of his office but was re-elected anyway (even though this means that he couldn't even vote for himself amusingly enough.) I think we can rule him out.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Even if it doesn't specifically bar water contiguity abuse, it's tough to argue that areas that are not contiguously accessible except by boat constitute a "community of interest". If the GOP just opts to simply ignore the requirements altogether (not unlikely) they're just asking for a lawsuit, which could result in a court-drawn map, and thus an actually fair one.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

But I do think a black Jacksonville to Tallahassee seat might not be something the GOP would oppose, Democrats do better in Jacksonville locally so the Jacksonville seat would be at best a swing district without violating the VRA by splitting up and diluting the black precincts, and FL-02 is still a swing district too. In fact it may have even voted for Sink. So just conceding one seat in northern Florida rather than risk losing two might be seen as the better option.

St. Petersburg and Tampa are connected by a bridge, so that's not really an issue.

But still it's tough to argue the part of St. Petersburg in FL-11 is part of a "community of interest" with the rest of the district.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A Jacksonville-Tallahassee district may not stand up, being only plurality, the VRA is not always applied to such seats and it would be an obvious racial gerrymander. Depending on how you maneuver, you can get an Obama district or a McCain one completely within Duval County, down to about R+1.

The VRA doesn't work like that. Brown's current seat was only black plurality when it was first drawn in 1992 and there was no court order or anything. At the time the Democrats controlled the redistricting though they had many Dixiecrats in their ranks and many Dixiecrats in north Florida congressional districts. The Republicans wanted to open up some districts by drawing this seat to get the blacks all in one district. They were backed by Brown and some other black state legislators and thus were able to force the district in the new map. Basically it's a Dem pack seat that just happens to have blacks as the Democrats who are being packed (though there's also Gainesville liberals).

What would be a VRA violation would be splitting up the black parts of Jacksonville into separate districts to dilute them and get them into all Republican seats. Which is why the Republicans would probably prefer the pack route, which also would get Tallahassee out of a now swing district too.

And how about a Tallahassee to Gainesville district?

The Democrats would draw a district like that if they were controlling the gerrymandering. Don't see it happening any other way.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

One thing I think the Republicans have realized though is that trying to deny the Democrats any seats in Orlando can't be anything but a dummymander, even without the fair districts requirements. The current map sort of reflects this even, while the current FL-08 is a gerrymandered monstrosity it still voted for Obama and is a bad fit for Webster against anyone but Grayson. Webster needs a far safer district and you can't draw one without endangering other incumbents or having a Dem pack seat in metro Orlando. The chutzpa of the Florida Republicans is part of the reason I hate the state, but even they have to realize you can't draw all Republican districts in an area that voted for Obama by double digits.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Is Bill Young's son seriously only 25? He would've had to be in his 50s when he had him.

That district doesn't even have a bridge connection. That's the sort of thing the Republicans can try and end up getting their whole map tossed out in court.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And how about a Tallahassee to Gainesville district?

The Democrats would draw a district like that if they were controlling the gerrymandering. Don't see it happening any other way.

Maybe if Allen Boyd had somehow barely survived 2010 and a bipartisan incumbent protection plan a la California2000 was happening.

I don't think Boyd would want that seat. Remember, he was almost primaried in the current seat in 2010 despite it being obvious there would be no chance whatsoever of holding it without hiim. Add in Gainesville and he'd be more dead in the water than Orrin Hatch.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Diaz-Balart and Brown have lost their ridiculous lawsuit claiming that a law that explicitly requires district boundaries to respect the VRA violates the VRA.

That means GOOD RIDDANCE Brown and in her place the return of a true progressive hero....

ALAN GRAYSON ALAN GRAYSON ALAN GRAYSON ALAN GRAYSON ALAN GRAYSON ALAN GRAYSON ALAN GRAYSON ALAN GRAYSON ALAN GRAYSON ALAN GRAYSON ALAN GRAYSON ALAN GRAYSON ALAN GRAYSON ALAN GRAYSON ALAN GRAYSON ALAN GRAYSON ALAN GRAYSON ALAN GRAYSON!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I suppose we could consider the New Zealand system.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The main thing is that Brown's seat was never drawn but because of the VRA, but by Brown herself backed by Republicans who wanted to use the district as a vote sink. It's nothing more than a standard Dem pack district.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lawsuit time! The most likely result probably being the best too, that abomination being tossed a court-drawn map put in its place.

Though at least even under that Allen West is probably still toast and the Democrats could take FL-27 (though it'd have to be with someone other than Alan Grayson...which alone is enough reason to fight to get it tossed.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well as long as Grayson can get elected in the 27th I'm fine with that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There's no way the 3rd will be tossed if the legislature won't do it, I'm afraid.

Can you elaborate as to why not? I thought it wasn't VRA protected, and without that, it surely violates Fair Districts.

The Fair Districts Amendment has its own VRA-type language, though, that explicitly takes precedent over compactness requirements.

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Note the bolded parts. If it goes to court and the legislature justifies the 3rd district by arguing that it was necessary to prevent the "abridging of equal opportunity for racial minorities to elect representatives of their choice," then the compactness requirements would be thrown out the window for that district.

I have a tough time seeing the FL-10/11 split being protected by that though, resulting in that being tossed.

West's seat if 56% Obama probably will vote closer to a 53% Obama district as Obama overran a bit among some demographics in that area and it tends to favor GOP candidates a little more on downballot races, but that might still be too strong for West. They're probably hoping for another Republican to eventually win it. So if we get that and FL-27 and the GOP get the new seat in FL-26 it's overall D+2 with the R seats unchanged, though FL-10 could certainly flip too if not upheld. In fact even the current district would be competitive without Young, who has to go sometime.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The new Dem seat in Orlando (now the 9th) gave Obama 60%... but actually went for Bush by a whisper in 2004. Swings around Orlando were that huge (and not only 2004 to 8 - the area swung pretty heavily Dem over the 90s, then back a bit in '04, then back the other way to new extremes in '08.) Not safe for Grayson against an electable Republican.

Of course it's a heavily Hispanic seat so it's probably not likely any current Republican could replicate Bush's numbers...