US House Redistricting: Florida

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Did you use the new population estimates or the old ones? I did a map this morning and some of the county proportions look a lot different from yours.

I tried to minimize county splits, but sometimes it's unavoidable. Open the images in a new window to see them more clearly.



Starting at the panhandle...



FL-01 (blue, Jeff Miller - R) - Not much changed here (the district shrunk toward the west), extremely safe R district.
FL-02 (green, Steve Southerland - R) - Shifts a little to the west accordingly, but still will be a safe Republican district.
FL-03 (purple, Corrine Brown - D) - The current monstrosity gets eliminated, and instead we have a greater Jacksonville area district. Would probably lean to the Dems, but Brown would have no chance of holding this seat.
FL-04 ( red, Ander Crenshaw - R) - Contracts to become all of the area surrounding Jacksonville. Safe R.
FL-06 (dark teal, Cliff Stearns - R) - Gainesville is balanced out by some heavily-Republican counties. Should probably still lean R, though elections might actually be interesting in this district for once.
FL-07 (grey, John Mica - R) - The problem is Mica lives outside this district (he's in Winter Park in Orange County, the same place Daniel Webster lives). He'd have to move, but this district would be safe for him, assuming he'd win a primary here (it's mostly new territory to him).
FL-27 (light mint green, new district) - Open seat consisting of Volusia, Flagler, Putnam, and part of St. Johns. Swing district.

Central Florida:



FL-05 (yellow, Rich Nugent - R) - Fairly Republican district. Shouldn't be too tough to hold.
FL-08 (purple, Daniel Webster - R) - Mostly Orlando and western Orange County. This one would probably be fairly Democratic, especially since it's 48% white, 26% black, and 19% Hispanic.
FL-09 (light teal, Gus Bilirakis - R) - Mostly unchanged, the borders are a bit different. Should lean R.
FL-10 (magenta, Bill Young - R) - Basically the entire peninsula of Pinellas County. I'm guessing the bits that are chopped out currently are Democratic, so it probably moves a few points to the Dems.
FL-11 (light green, Kathy Castor - D) - Tampa and the surrounding area, safe Dem.
FL-12 (light purple, Dennis Ross - R) - All of Polk and part of Osceola. Should have a decent Republican lean.
FL-15 (orange, Bill Posey - R) - Brevard, Indian River, and a little bit of Volusia. Definitely a Republican district.
FL-24 (dark purple, Sandy Adams - R) - I have no idea where Sandy Adams lives, but this is the other half of Orange County, and parts of Osceola and Seminole. I'm guessing this one would either be a swing district or lean Dem? It's 53% white, 33% Hispanic.

South Florida:



FL-13 (pink, Vern Buchanan - R) - Buchanan lives in Sarasota, which is in the southern end of the district. Mostly Manatee and parts of eastern Hillsborough. Should have a slight Republican lean.
FL-14 (brown, Connie Mack - R) - Hard to see, but this one's part of Lee, and almost all of Hendry and Collier. Safe R.
FL-16 (light green, Tom Rooney - R) - Rooney is in the tiny slice of northern Palm Beach County. The district stretches across the state from St. Lucie and Indian River to DeSoto and Hardee. Should have a decent Republican lean.
FL-26 (grey, new district) - Charlotte and parts of Sarasota and Lee. Definitely leans Republican.

Miami area:



FL-17 (purple, Frederica Wilson - D) - Pretty much unchanged; 54% black.
FL-18 (yellow, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen - R) - Also pretty much the same, although it picks up the mainland part of Monroe to keep the county within one district. 61% Hispanic.
FL-21 (dark red, Mario Diaz-Balart - R) - V-shaped to take in all the non-black northern parts of Miami. 76% Hispanic.
FL-25 (pink, David Rivera - R) - Pretty much the same as before. 73% Hispanic.

Palm Beach and Broward Counties:




FL-19 (brownish yellow, Ted Deutch - D) - Most of the white parts of Palm Beach County; safe Dem. I didn't even bother trying to figure out where the Reps in the southeastern part of the state live, given how much of a mess the current map is.
FL-20 (pink, Allen West - R) - Picks up quite a bit of territory from FL-22, which should push the district to the Dems.
FL-22 (brownish red, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz - D) - Southern Palm Beach and northern Broward; I'm assuming it's still a Dem district, although probably not as packed-in. It picks up some parts of FL-19.
FL-23 (light green, Alcee Hastings - D) - The black parts of Palm Beach and Broward Counties connected by a big tract of vacant land. 52% black.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I think Orlando is the only place outside of Miami with a big enough Hispanic population for that. You can draw about a 41% Hispanic district across Orange and Osceola Counties. That's assuming that the Hispanics who live there aren't Cuban, about which I have no idea.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It looks like the Hispanics in Broward are too spread out to make a Hispanic-opportunity district. I just messed around with it, and to get about to 35% Hispanic, it has to stretch the entire length of the county.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Coalition districts (it's 49% black) don't get protected the way majority-black (or majority-Hispanic) districts do. This is why Corinne Brown is trying to challenge the fair districts law rather than waiting for the map to try and challenge it on VRA grounds.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The DOJ okayed the redistricting amendments that were passed last year.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Democrats might not be happy if Brown's district is dismantled. You can easily draw a slightly-McCain district in Jacksonville without it looking like a gerrymander.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

St. Petersburg and Tampa are connected by a bridge, so that's not really an issue.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

DKE has a nice breakdown of the new districts (they also did one for California):

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/02/10/1063407/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Florida-cheat-sheet

I don't understand why Mica is running in FL-07, when FL-06 is mostly from his old district and it's more Republican.

Also, Crist won three of the districts in 2010, FL-13 (Bill Young), FL-21 (Ted Deutch), and FL-23 (Debbie Wasserman Schultz). Edit: four, actually, he won FL-14 (Kathy Castor) by a hair.