US House Redistricting: Florida

[krazen1211]

Why wouldn't the Republicans run the 3rd from Jacksonville to Tallahassee (obviously noncompact) sucking up all the black areas?

The amendment that was passed allows for exceptions based on federal law. Justify it by saying you're avoiding retrogression.

Also, draw a new compact district in Orlando. Alan Grayson makes his comeback here. Once you put into place the 3rd and the new 26th, the rest of Northern Florida is pretty Republican.

The only rep that seems absolutely dead is Allen West, there's no way to get a clean Republican district in Broward/Palm Beach.

[krazen1211]

I found that you could hit majority black for Alcee Hastings just by drawing a really narrow strip that connects Fort Lauterdale to West Palm Beach, or thereabouts. That leavea a second narrow strip between the 1st strip and the Atlantic Ocean.

Rather than have that mass in the Everglades, just connect Delray and Deerfield beaches from the existing map. It's kind of shaped like a french fry.

As long as you don't give Allen West a FL-22 he can win (and I see no way to do that), I doubt anyone complains.

[krazen1211]

Thing is the mass in the Everglades is also majority black.

Yeah, but aren't there like 10 people living there?

[krazen1211]

Coalition districts (it's 49% black) don't get protected the way majority-black (or majority-Hispanic) districts do. This is why Corinne Brown is trying to challenge the fair districts law rather than waiting for the map to try and challenge it on VRA grounds.

But its still in the Republican's advantage to draw something like that anyway.  You effectively put all the Democrats in a compact Orlando district and a majority-black Jacksonville to Gainesville to Tallahassee district, and beyond that, all of North Florida is solid Republican across the board.

I have to figure the Democrats will be limited to 1 North Florida seat, 1 Orlando seat, 2 Tampa Bay seats, and the 5 seats in the Miami area. Or at least that will be the goal before the lawsuits start flying in every direction.

[krazen1211]

Well FL-22 is without question gone.

FL-10, too. No excuse for cutting out the black parts of St. Petersburg. Bill Young might be able to win the resulting D+5 or so seat, but he's old and will likely retire instead.

There will also have to be two Democratic seats drawn in the Orlando-Kissimmee area. One might be considered a replacement for Brown's seat (although there will also be a marginal or possibly lean D seat in Jacksonville), but the other will be totally new.

Those are the pretty much unavoidable losses for the GOP. There might be others.

I see easily where 1 district comes in (and the GOP will want to draw that anyway). I don't see where the second fits or why they would draw it.

[krazen1211]

Ugly as it is, the Jacksonville-to-Tallahassee seat probably gives the parties, ahm, security. I suppose it's what the smart money is on. Though the corridor to Gainesville will probably not be justifiable on VRA grounds and thus be out the window under the legislation adopted. Anyways, as long as it doesn't get its own seat along with Ocala, Gainesville can easily be swallowed up into a Republican seat.

It certainly guarantees the Dems the 1 seat in North Florida while the GOP takes all the rest.

You can shut the Democrats out entirely by splitting Duval properly and attaching to the heavy Dem parts to Nassau County.

The only 2 questions I see are whether they yield 1 Orlando seat (most likely), or 2, and of course Pinellas County. Water contiguity abuse for Tampa/St. Petersburg isn't barred by the amendment.

[krazen1211]

Between the Devil Rays, the lightning, the cross newspaper delivery, among other things, the 2 cities certainly have things in common. They're urban cores of the same metro area.

I guess you'd have to place a Republican district in North Pinellas, the Castor district cutting across the bridge, and another Republican district entirely in Hillsborough.

[krazen1211]

The St. Petersburg, Tampa connection would probably be a violation, there's no logical reason to do so other than partisanship and the amendments prohibit that. The only reason it's drawn like that is to protect Young and it's borderline racial gerrymandering at that.

Of course there is. You have to make that county crossing anyway somewhere, and the other option splits Clearwater in half.

There's no reason why splitting Clearwater is better than splitting St. Petersburg.

Here is a map of the Clearwater municipal borders; it is clear that the map that was posted a couple pages back does not adhere to them.

http://www.clearwater-fl.com/services/gis.asp

[krazen1211]

Of course there is. You have to make that county crossing anyway somewhere, and the other option splits Clearwater in half.

There's no reason why splitting Clearwater is better than splitting St. Petersburg.

Here is a map of the Clearwater municipal borders; it is clear that the map that was posted a couple pages back does not adhere to them.

http://www.clearwater-fl.com/services/gis.asp

You can fit most of Clearwater in with St. Petersburg, some precincts won't fit, but from the standpoint of compactness, it keeps Pinellas County from be divided up too much and that's one of the goals of the amendments.

That doesn't make any sense. Pinellas is split 2 ways regardless and Hillsborough is split 3 ways regardless. There is no need to put another district in either county.

'Compactness' has never been seriously litigated. Heck, even Illinois has a compactness standard and look at that map. Or the New Jersey legislative map which splits Somerset county at least 6 ways and has 1 district zig zag through 4 counties.

In addition, Clearwater is the Pinellas County seat and it certainly does not make much sense to split the county seat in a Pinellas district.

[krazen1211]

It makes perfect sense. If you bring the Tampa district into St. Petersberg just to keep FL-10 Republican, then you're going to end up with three district in Pinellas County, when there should only be two.

Other states have nothing to do with this, the amendments in Florida are very clear and county splitting is supposed to be kept at minimum and population doesn't dictate that Pinellas be split three ways. There is not point to it other than partisanship.

What on earth is the 3rd district?

You have 1 district for all of Pinellas and the most GOP part of St. Petersburg (still voted for Obama 50.3%), and the other district for the rest of St. Petersburg and Tampa and a few inner suburbs. You can fit a remaining district in the rest of Hillsborough County.




The only issue is that it cuts Bilirakis out of his house, but he will have to move rather than yield the 10th district, which Bill Young wants for his son now that Jr. is 25.

[krazen1211]

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/local/article448561.ece

I think he was born in 85. Curious how he didn't hand the seat down in 2010, perhaps that wasn't his intention after all.

I guess I missed the Gandy Bridge by a precinct. Easily fixable.

[krazen1211]

Certainly quite a bit better than before. Although that isn't saying much.

[krazen1211]

Certainly quite a bit better than before. Although that isn't saying much.

Basically, obeying the law except where it would hurt them.

With a hilarious consequence in the mainland part of Monroe.

Yep. A lot of the white Republican districts are cleaned up. John Mica for instance is placed out of his district.

'Compactness' is of course exceptionally difficult to litigate.

[krazen1211]

John Mica for instance is placed out of his district.

His tendril to Winter Park was lost and Daniel Webster gained a tendril to Winter Park.

I am confused as to what the purpose of that is other than to make the new district as Hispanic as possible. I believe its Hispanic VAP is in the 40s.

[krazen1211]

Lawsuit time! The most likely result probably being the best too, that abomination being tossed a court-drawn map put in its place.

Though at least even under that Allen West is probably still toast and the Democrats could take FL-27 (though it'd have to be with someone other than Alan Grayson...which alone is enough reason to fight to get it tossed.)

27 is a safe Democratic seat. It might still not end up as drawn - that 8th tendril is difficult to defend.
The only other part I would think problematic is 10/11.
There's no way the 3rd will be tossed if the legislature won't do it, I'm afraid.
Somewhere seen it claimed that West's new district is 55% Obama - not enough to doom him, but not favored against a strong challenger. The 16th is apparently also going to be highly swingy.

The more problematic jut seems to be 11 into Manatee County. I can't quite eyeball it but it appears to be there.

[krazen1211]

http://www.clearinghouse.net/chDocs/public/VR-FL-0151-0005.pdf

Page 42-44.



Prior litigation upholding the existing FL-03.

[krazen1211]

http://www.clearinghouse.net/chDocs/public/VR-FL-0151-0005.pdf

Page 42-44.



Prior litigation upholding the existing FL-03.

Pre-FRA and thus irrelevant, although the court may not throw it out anyway.

The findings of fact are still in place. Those include that FL-03 is compact, complies with traditional redistricting principles, and is not drawn primarily on race.

[krazen1211]

Just because the state once created it for reasons (officially) other than VRA doesn't mean it'll make that claim this time.

I'm not sure where this idea came from.

Prior court opinion states that FL-03 was drawn in 2002 as a black performing district and that such was intentional, and that such was fully consistent with a legal plan.

[krazen1211]

Just because the state once created it for reasons (officially) other than VRA doesn't mean it'll make that claim this time.

I'm not sure where this idea came from.

Prior court opinion states that FL-03 was drawn in 2002 as a black performing district and that such was intentional, and that such was fully consistent with a legal plan.

Doesn't mean there won't be a lawsuit about it! First, that was from a case in federal court regarding the VRA, whereas any new lawsuit will be in state court over the racial minority standards of the FDA- which might end up with a very different interpretation. Someone could make the case that the district was drawn with the intent to help an incumbent or political party, the prevention of which under the FRA is of equal importance to ensuring minority representation. Also note that the amendment's wording even seems to suggest that not favoring incumbents is more important than all Federal law.

Yeah... this stuff is definitely going to court.

Yes, of course there will be a lawsuit about it. I just don't see how it can get anywhere in federal court as it has not over a decade now. In state court they will surely make the exact argument you already posted.

In fact they already are making that argument.


Incidentally the 2002 district court was careful enough not to address whether FL-03 was a 'required' district per se. They merely said it was valid, which is of course good enough for the GOP's purpose.

[krazen1211]

What are the growth rates of the Cubans vs non Cubans in Dade? This decade it's almost a sure thing that the Cubans will crack the non Cubans again, probably successfully, for 10 years; you can accomplish that fairly easily while still placing 1 (or even 2) districts entirely in Dade.

Eventually though they might quarantine off all the Democratic Hispanics at the south end and use to Cubans to crack the semi liberal whites.

[krazen1211]

What are the growth rates of the Cubans vs non Cubans in Dade? This decade it's almost a sure thing that the Cubans will crack the non Cubans again, probably successfully, for 10 years; you can accomplish that fairly easily while still placing 1 (or even 2) districts entirely in Dade.

Eventually though they might quarantine off all the Democratic Hispanics at the south end and use to Cubans to crack the semi liberal whites.

I don't think this is really geographically possible. Nearly all of the non-Hispanic whites in Miami County live either (a) on the barrier islands or the nearby mainland, or (b) south of the city.

The northern whites are inaccessible except through the black areas (obviously not possible) or through downtown Miami. They would have to all be in one district because it's just too narrow to partition them otherwise. Drawing a district like that, I end up with 54% Obama--might be possible to lower that to 51-2% if you're more precise, but it can't go much lower, which is far from safe.

The southern whites are surrounded by and interspersed with non-Cubans, so they would go naturally in a south-Dade-and-Monroe Hispanic Democratic district (which is around 57-58% Obama and around 60% Hispanic VAP).

3 McCain districts, 2 of which sit entirely in Dade. Yellow, Blue, Brown. The Keys are removed and placed in the Naples district.




10 years from now someone might place the Keys, Homestead, Cutler Bay, etc in a new Democratic district, but certainly not today.  Depends on how whites in Broward County vote over the next 10 years.

The black district can of course assist in grabbing some non Cuban Hispanics.

[krazen1211]

Krazen, your map violates the FRA (or whatever it's called). There's an unnecessary and illegal county split between Dade and Broward; you only need one to simultaneously create three Hispanic districts and one black district, as my map showed (and you need a split both for population equality and to create the black district--actually I think you might be able to create a majority black district all in Dade, but it has to reach down U.S. 1 all the way to Homestead in a long tail and looks ridiculous).

If you say so. No court has found such, so its merely an opinion that isn't taken seriously.

[krazen1211]

The black district can of course assist in grabbing some non Cuban Hispanics.

Does so inevitably, actually. (Well, some Hispanic Democrats. It's clearly not the same thing.)

I do not see that a double county split between Dade and Broward is illegal per se, but it would need to be justified to be defendable in court. Krazen's parts of Broward are not really connected - he's cutting out a Hispanic area that doesn't vote the way he wants and places it in a White district, after all - and I'm not sure of the racial breakdown of the areas he includes instead. If they're White, it's should be very tough to defend.

Weston is about 31% Hispanic and 60% or so white. Mid 50s Obama territory. 'Political' and 'Geographical' boundaries obviously includes town boundaries as well as county boundaries and no heirarchy is placed among them. It is of course nice to assume one when it benefits your party, but other courts (such as the New Jersey Supreme Court) have ignored much stronger language that is less subject to interpretation.

I might add of course that the 2 districts I placed entirely in Dade is 1 more than the legislatures maps, or your own. The point of view of both parties in the legislature is reasonably clear in this regard.

In any event, taking out the Keys and placing in Miami Beach and Weston doesn't really make much sense this decade anyway, unless you really want to save Allen West that badly.

[krazen1211]

There seems to be a very real battle between the House and Senate on whether the bill should be faithfully executed or the GOP should just take its chances in court, in the Tampa Bay area. You'd almost think the House was under split partisan control.

This is what the Senate EDIT: the Senate Committee passed. Race stats. (I also found a document with loads of other statistics by district, but nothing political in there. Tenure, age groups, and whatnot.)

The House Committee, meanwhile, has narrowed the choice down to this, this, or this. http://censusvalidator.blob.core.windows.net/mydistrictbuilderdata/Legislative%20Plans/H000C9041.pdfHighly technical report, amend 1 to 3 or 5 at end of address for other two plans.

The FL Senate passed a pretty aggressive map today.  FL-22 and the new FL-27 are conceded.  None of the other 19 R seats gets worse than 51.5% Obama, but FL-02 could be a toss up with a Blue Dog.

Same map as the Senate committee map linked above, or do I need to go search for it?

Same I believe. 7 of the 12 Florida Democrats voted in favor of it. It will likely be difficult to claim that such a map is drawn for a partisan purpose.

[krazen1211]

They seem to have created a Senate district within Palm Beach that should be solid for a Republican. Of course, Senate districts are about 2/3 the size of the Congressional.




Sen. Oscar Braynon, D-Miami Gardens, questioned why the GOP had carved out District 29 stretching from just east of Fort Lauderdale north to take in most of coastal Palm Beach County when it could have been drawn entirely in Palm Beach.

Surrounded by districts that tilt Democratic, the new-look District 29 is similar to Republican Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff's current District 25.

The new district is a little more of a straight line in Palm Beach, but would still likely be a swing seat, with 37 percent Republican voters and 35 percent Democrat.