US House Redistricting: Florida

[lowtech redneck]

With a Republican-appointed court, the Florida GOP probably has enough wiggle-room within the regulations to limit Democratic gains to (at most) nine 'reasonably safe' (at least 55.0%) seats and one swing district that leans slightly Democratic (as well about ten swing districts that lean Republican); if Bill Young chooses to run in a 'natural' St. Petersburg seat (about 56.3% Democrat), then there is a reasonable chance that he would win.  Barring a nationwide landslide, the best-case scenario for the Republicans therefore seems to be 19-8.

The VRA will enable at leat three hispanic seats (including one Democratic coastal district) and one black seat centered around Miami-Dade, and its likely that the gerrymandered Alcee Hastings seat will be protected as well.  Interestingly, it seems that the Republicans would probably do better with an Orlando vote sink than they would with a majority-black Corrine Brown district (at least it seems that way within the limitations of DRA), as the latter seems to produce two extra Democratic-leaning swing districts.

I wonder if the VRA will protect Corrine Brown's extreme gerrymander?

[lowtech redneck]

With a Republican-appointed court, the Florida GOP probably has enough wiggle-room within the regulations to limit Democratic gains to (at most) nine 'reasonably safe' (at least 55.0%) seats and one swing district that leans slightly Democratic (as well about ten swing districts that lean Republican); if Bill Young chooses to run in a 'natural' St. Petersburg seat (about 56.3% Democrat), then there is a reasonable chance that he would win.  Barring a nationwide landslide, the best-case scenario for the Republicans therefore seems to be 19-8.

The VRA will enable at leat three hispanic seats (including one Democratic coastal district) and one black seat centered around Miami-Dade, and its likely that the gerrymandered Alcee Hastings seat will be protected as well.  Interestingly, it seems that the Republicans would probably do better with an Orlando vote sink than they would with a majority-black Corrine Brown district (at least it seems that way within the limitations of DRA), as the latter seems to produce two extra Democratic-leaning swing districts.

I wonder if the VRA will protect Corrine Brown's extreme gerrymander?

If were based solely on the proportion of the population there would be 6 Hispanic and 4 Black majority districts.

The spread-out nature of the minority population in Florida prohibits that; its well-documented enough that Republicans should have no additional problems on that front.  The question is whether Corrine Brown's district (I don't think its technically a VRA district, but the rulings on this matter are anything but consistent) is protected, given the fact that it could easily be made into an extremely ugly VRA district.

All that said, I'm still pretty new at redistricting politics and gaming, so it wouldn't be that surprising if I missed something. 

[lowtech redneck]

Brown's district is not VRA protected, it's not 50% Black and completely violates the amendments passed. That's why Brown was fighting so hard against it, there's no way that she could survive under a clean map.

If my findings are correct, then I hope you're right; it just doesn't seem that there are any consistent standards for this, though.  As an example, do you think the courts would have allowed the Georgia Republicans to turn Sanford Bishop's district into a 'leaning Republican' swing district (it wouldn't have been difficult) if they so desired?  The fact that it's technically possible to make the district majority-black without any major alterations might make the courts decide in Corrine Brown's favor.  The VRA (as interpreted by the courts) trumps other redistricting regulations after all....