US House Redistricting: New York

[minionofmidas]

So yes, I did have Crowley and Velaquez swap CD's literally.

Lol, nothing of the kind. You were just setting up Velazquez a primary against a worthless weak incumbent... in a district drawn so that she might conceivably lose. The incumbent being Maloney.

You don't need 60% or even over 50% Hispanic in New York city by the way... provided that the remainder is atomized. (Except in trying to prove that one more district than the state is willing to draw must be drawn, but we're talking about either a court-drawn or a compromise map here.) A 45% Hispanic, 20% White, 15% Asian, 15% Black seat is an utterly safe Hispanic seat.

The bottom line is this, Torie. Forget this first draft existed. Go back to the drawing board. Start with bringing the minority-held districts up to population without changing their composition far to the adverse. Then do 4 Long Island seats, without bringing King's share down, with McCarthy's extending into New York City. Then draw what you have to from what's left. That's what a court would actually feel it had little choice but to do.

[muon2]

Yikes!  I thought that was Crowley's CD!  LOL.  My oh my.  OK, thanks muon2.  CD-09 is going to have to cross the border into Queens alas to pick up whites instead of Hispanics north of Broadway.  Man, I didn't realize there were that many Hispanics around. In fact there are so many, that the issue becomes whether to create two solid Hispanic CD's, or one solid and two more marginal perhaps. I see the fix.  It will mess up the map a bit, but not too much. The existing CD's are such a mess that it just got me confused. I thought that when I created a majority Hispanic CD by just giggling the lines a bit, and having looked at the existing Hispanic percentages in Velaquez's CD, that it must have been hers. The percentages just "fit" to well. My bad.

So yes, I did have Crowley and Velaquez swap CD's literally. That dog won't hunt. In any event, Crowley is going to end up with a very Hispanic CD after fixing generating the Velaquez CD with the Brooklyn-Queens border bisecting so that it has a sliver in Queens and a sliver in Kings, and then go and pick up the Hispanics near LaQuardia (sp) airport in Queens (that portion will be new to her).  NYC is segregation city isn't it?

Now you see why ny CD-12 was so bad. I took the existing district for VRA purposes and added the area near LaGuardia to bring the pop up. You may choose to drop the southern tail, but otherwise I expect you'll have something like the district I drew. In drawing CD-12 the way I did I was going for two solid Hispanic districts plus one simple majority Hispanic district.

[Torie]

So yes, I did have Crowley and Velaquez swap CD's literally.

Lol, nothing of the kind. You were just setting up Velazquez a primary against a worthless weak incumbent... in a district drawn so that she might conceivably lose. The incumbent being Maloney.

You don't need 60% or even over 50% Hispanic in New York city by the way... provided that the remainder is atomized. (Except in trying to prove that one more district than the state is willing to draw must be drawn, but we're talking about either a court-drawn or a compromise map here.) A 45% Hispanic, 20% White, 15% Asian, 15% Black seat is an utterly safe Hispanic seat.

The bottom line is this, Torie. Forget this first draft existed. Go back to the drawing board. Start with bringing the minority-held districts up to population without changing their composition far to the adverse. Then do 4 Long Island seats, without bringing King's share down, with McCarthy's extending into New York City. Then draw what you have to from what's left. That's what a court would actually feel it had little choice but to do.

We shall see. I have a draft of the Velaquez CD up to 56% Hispanic or so (it still needs some work on the Bradlee utility is slow on my mac as opposed to a PC for some reason, so it take more time). It does not affect the balance of my map much. It just makes things more erose. I don't understand your McCarthy point at all. What does that have to do with Hispanic CD's?  I will have to study Muon2's map some more. I find his light maps hard to read. Muon2 why can't you make them brighter? Take screen shots damn it! Do it my way. Please!

[minionofmidas]

It has nothing to do with Hispanic districts, but it has everything to do with simulating a reasonably likely outcome. (I'm not saying you absolutely can't move any of Nassau into Meeks' district, which is why I said to draw the minority seats first. But use as little as you feel possible and then excise another five precincts.)

[Torie]

It has nothing to do with Hispanic districts, but it has everything to do with simulating a reasonably likely outcome. (I'm not saying you absolutely can't move any of Nassau into Meeks' district, which is why I said to draw the minority seats first. But use as little as you feel possible and then excise another five precincts.)

I don't understand your few precincts comment. Yes, Meeks' CD must go into Nassau to get to 50% black VAP.  The alternative to getting it to 50% creates a ludicrous mess. Why would a court do that?  One problem is that the blacks and Hispanics are in competition for some precincts. To get the Hispanic percentage up in the Velaquez seat, the black percentage in NY-10 needs to go down.  Another problem is that it appears that at least two snakes, and maybe three will be needed to link disparate minority neighborhoods, while allowing NY-13 to get at a bunch of white and Asian voters that are in sort of an island in the middle of Queens, forcing the Velaquez CD to cut north to its west, rather than the more natural route to its east.  I am working on that, but it may be unavoidable.

[minionofmidas]

You still don't get it, do you? You're not drawing a partisan gerrymander that doesn't fail any of the (in minority-heavy areas, many, in others, none) explicit constitutional hurdles for them. You're drawing either half of a compromise map nobody of import will sue against, or a court-drawn map (that would have to pass some sort of SC scrutiny... but really just checking whether it's not outrageously partisan.) 50.1% is not as important as avoiding the creation of additional snakes. Not where the remainder is fractured.
And going into Nassau (except possibly heavily Black areas directly bordering heavily Black areas in Queens; even that, preferrably not though yeah, I know what the numbers look like, so probably it will happen) will feel like a snake to New Yorkers and Long Islanders even if it doesn't look it.

In Ohio, if R's were going to pass a disgusting map they had to do the black snake to Akron. That's not because the law actually demanded it - the law as its interpretation now stands technically doesn't demand any Black seat in Ohio at all: Any seat that stays in Cuyahoga fails the Gingles test because it's under 50.1 and any that head out to Akron fail the Gingles test because they do not represent a community of interest. Catch-22. It's because D's were going to use any easyish tangent to sue against an R gerrymander, and its existence puts the them in the Catch. These considerations don't apply here. One consideration does apply both here and in Ohio: the map doesn't need to be precleared.

[Torie]

I have some trouble understanding some of the content of your posts, Lewis. Story. Maybe it is a sign of incipient senile dementia. If your comments are all about my taking precincts out of Nassau to put in the Meeks CD, yes, they have significant black percentages, and are right next to the CD, and are not snakes at all. The snakes to which I was referring involve the shape of the Velaquez CD potentially to get its Hispanic percentage up.  I am seeing if there is a way to minimize them some more.

I should look again at Muon2's map again, to see what he did, but it is more fun to do my own work, and then see if Muon2 had some insight that I missed that makes sense to me (I am amazed that he said he created a third 50% Hispanic CD; I am not near that at all with the Crowley CD at present).

In any event, my effort is solely based on what I think a court might do that is trying to be fair and follow the law, and so forth. You might think my judgment sucks, but such is life. More detailed comments as to specific flaws would in any event be more helpful.

I agree that appending Akron to Cleveland is probably not legally necessary, but that is not for certain, and appending it eliminates a legal risk, albeit perhaps not a huge one. I so posted elsewhere.

[minionofmidas]

I agree that appending Akron to Cleveland is probably not legally necessary, but that is not for certain, and appending it eliminates a legal risk, albeit perhaps not a huge one. I so posted elsewhere.

Not just "not legally necessary" - it would not have been seriously considered in case of a court-drawn or compromise-drawn map. As sure to not happen as it was sure to happen in the actual circumstances.

I just expounded on the situation for contrast. None of these kind of tactical questions pertain to what you are (claiming to be) drawing here.
Then it got too long.

Anyways, going into Nassau is going to feel unnatural to people. It is going to be perceived as, at least somewhat, snaking even if it is not. And it is going to actually be snaking long before it starts to look like a snake at first glance - before the length you went to on your first draft, for instance, or so I think. I may not be entirely right here, but, basically, just bear in mind that Nassau Blacks are to be used with caution because that will be the case if at least one of the decision-making folks is from the geographical island of Long Island.

[muon2]

So yes, I did have Crowley and Velaquez swap CD's literally.

Lol, nothing of the kind. You were just setting up Velazquez a primary against a worthless weak incumbent... in a district drawn so that she might conceivably lose. The incumbent being Maloney.

You don't need 60% or even over 50% Hispanic in New York city by the way... provided that the remainder is atomized. (Except in trying to prove that one more district than the state is willing to draw must be drawn, but we're talking about either a court-drawn or a compromise map here.) A 45% Hispanic, 20% White, 15% Asian, 15% Black seat is an utterly safe Hispanic seat.

The bottom line is this, Torie. Forget this first draft existed. Go back to the drawing board. Start with bringing the minority-held districts up to population without changing their composition far to the adverse. Then do 4 Long Island seats, without bringing King's share down, with McCarthy's extending into New York City. Then draw what you have to from what's left. That's what a court would actually feel it had little choice but to do.

We shall see. I have a draft of the Velaquez CD up to 56% Hispanic or so (it still needs some work on the Bradlee utility is slow on my mac as opposed to a PC for some reason, so it take more time). It does not affect the balance of my map much. It just makes things more erose. I don't understand your McCarthy point at all. What does that have to do with Hispanic CD's?  I will have to study Muon2's map some more. I find his light maps hard to read. Muon2 why can't you make them brighter? Take screen shots damn it! Do it my way. Please!

Screen shots you want? Darker colors? I expect you want a zoom into CD 12, too! Despite the artistic license in my maps, I am a very accommodating individual.

[minionofmidas]

It won't look like that, either.

[Torie]

Oh my!  Moving right along, why don't you guys pick apart this map. I did some "minor" surgery. LOL. One things leads to another thing, which leads to another thing, and then an insight, and on and on it goes.  Remember, we are talking about a court drawn map here. Racial gerrymandering is just so much fun. But this puppy I think is really coming together - finally!  

Please be specific as to the flaws. Thanks. Yes, I know, NY-05 goes into Nassau. Lewis doesn't like it. I do. We shall just agree to disagree as to what a court will do there. What are the reasonable alternatives? None in my judgement. I did get rid of that one little spike jutting off to the NE, just to annoy Lewis, taking away one of his silly little bullets that he thinks is made of silver. I love when that happens!  

If this map is now the very embodiment of perfection, I think I may give it to the Pubbies to "help" them bargain with the Dems. Why not?  Life is beautiful.

Yes, NY-14 could probably be made majority Hispanic, if some court wants to screw the blacks. I doubt that will happen. But it is easy to do. Just switch out the blacks for the Hispanics in the Bronx. It might not quite get there, but it should be fairly close.

[muon2]

Oh my!  Moving right along, why don't you guys pick apart this map. I did some "minor" surgery. LOL. One things leads to another thing, which leads to another thing, and then an insight, and on and on it goes.  Remember, we are talking about a court drawn map here. Racial gerrymandering is just so much fun. But this puppy I think is really coming together - finally!  

Please be specific as to the flaws. Thanks. Yes, I know, NY-05 goes into Nassau. Lewis doesn't like it. I do. We shall just agree to disagree as to what a court will do there. What are the reasonable alternatives? None in my judgement. I did get rid of that one little spike jutting off to the NE, just to annoy Lewis, taking away one of his silly little bullets that he thinks is made of silver. I love when that happens!  

If this map is now the very embodiment of perfection, I think I may give it to the Pubbies to "help" them bargain with the Dems. Why not?  Life is beautiful.

Yes, NY-14 could probably be made majority Hispanic, if some court wants to screw the blacks. I doubt that will happen. But it is easy to do. Just switch out the blacks for the Hispanics in the Bronx. It might not quite get there, but it should be fairly close.

That certainly looks better for the Hispanics, but Velazquez will still be unhappy. I believe she lives in South Brooklyn, somewhere near Red Hook. Your new district for her starts half a borough away and crosses way into the Bronx. It's that piece in the Bronx you gave to her that I put with Rangel instead. That's how I got 3 Latino majority CDs.

[Torie]

OK. Thanks Muon2 for your comments.

If I were a judge, I would disregard incumbents' little problems. She can move. There is some merit where possible and reasonable for constituents staying together rather than being moved around every ten years, but I don't feel that way about where incumbents live. Heck in NY you don't even need to live in the CD to represent it. Her existing CD is a mess, and may well have been drawn that way because ten years ago that was the only way to get the Hispanic percentage as high as it was. If I were a judge I would have no interest in maintaining that excrescence. (Heck it even wanders into Park Slope (probably as a population equalizer), which isn't even Hispanic, after picking up maybe 50,000 Hispanics next to the docks who are an isolated Hispanic island, and you have to wade through a ton of whites to get there.  No thanks; there are plenty of Hispanics elsewhere for her.)

The guts of her CD  along the Brooklyn/Queens line have been maintained. It is just the a bunch of white precincts that were excised along with that wandering tail that goes down to the docks picking up white Brooklyn Heights and  Park Slope en route, plus a few Hispanic precincts next to NY-10 that were put in NY-10 to up the black percentage a bit (because NY-11 already has enough Hispanics). As to the latter, it was a balancing test between NY-10 and NY-11. That is my reasoning anyway.

I also think it unwise to dump a black incumbent for an Hispanic, which may or may not happen if you get the Hispanic percentage that high in NY-14. On that one however, I would listen to what the blacks and Hispanics have to say. It can go either way. The Pubbies certainly will not care much, although I suspect they would prefer to deal with Rangel than most of the minority congresspersons around in New York. He is a pretty savvy and realistic guy - and certainly genial. Perhaps a compromise is to pick up some of each in the Bronx, which would get rid of that little blue NY-16 indentation there jutting to the west at the NW corner, that is packed with Hispanics.

By the way, the Dem PVI as it happened went way down now in NY-06 (I corrected my matrix chart which had some errors), and given last night (all those Orthodox Jewish precincts in current NY-09 Queens), and if the Pubbies are able someday to make an effective play for Asians, that CD might potentially be put in play at some point.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Unfortunately my old laptop is sufficiently on the fritz that it doesn't seem to be able to handle large states in the App anymore without taking about eight years to fill in each precinct, but: given that the black population in Brooklyn goes to the water on the SE side but not on any other side, why wouldn't a court just bring the Brooklyn whites up the west side of the black districts, combining the Orthodox Jews with Park Slope, Williamsburg, etc?

[Torie]

Unfortunately my old laptop is sufficiently on the fritz that it doesn't seem to be able to handle large states in the App anymore without taking about eight years to fill in each precinct, but: given that the black population in Brooklyn goes to the water on the SE side but not on any other side, why wouldn't a court just bring the Brooklyn whites up the west side of the black districts, combining the Orthodox Jews with Park Slope, Williamsburg, etc?

Because NY-10 needs them (i.e. Williamsburg) to keep its black percentage up. There is a minority percentage of blacks there. The white CD in Brooklyn could potentially take Park Slope, but it really fits better with the Manhattan CD. There are direct subway lines and a bridge, and the place is more cosmopolitan. Heck, Lunar lived there.  It also would force NY-13 to jut more into Queens which creates its own problems, although NY-07 could move farther up the Hudson River, and force NY-14 to take more of the Bronx I suppose. But then where does NY-16 go?  It might have to cross into Queens, and that dog won't hunt. It was really a very tricky map to draw, with very tight constraints. There are walls everywhere as it were - ethnic walls, and water walls, and state line walls.

[minionofmidas]

Be that as it

OK. Thanks Muon2 for your comments.

If I were a judge, I would disregard incumbents' little problems. She can move. There is some merit where possible and reasonable for constituents staying together rather than being moved around every ten years, but I don't feel that way about where incumbents live.

Well, yeah. And this hispanic-opportunity district is based around Williamsburg and the Lower East Side. You will have to start from scratch and do the minority-held districts first if you want to be able to present a plan good enough to serve as a starting point for discussion.
You also need to get your intentions clear - do you want to simulate what is most likely to happen, or do you want to prove that Turner's district could conceivably survive? Your current maps would be good enough, minor corrections aside, to serve the second purpose - but then it hardly needed proving; I would have happily agreed to that immediately.

[Torie]

OK, I jiggled stuff around a bit, and shoved up the Hispanic percentage in NY-14 by a couple of percent, so that it is now about a point higher than it is in the existing CD. The black percentage goes up 6 points.  The lines look a bit better too. NY-07 finally gets to the southern edge of Columbia University. I think I will go with this fix.

[Torie]

Be that as it

OK. Thanks Muon2 for your comments.

If I were a judge, I would disregard incumbents' little problems. She can move. There is some merit where possible and reasonable for constituents staying together rather than being moved around every ten years, but I don't feel that way about where incumbents live.

Well, yeah. And this hispanic-opportunity district is based around Williamsburg and the Lower East Side. You will have to start from scratch and do the minority-held districts first if you want to be able to present a plan good enough to serve as a starting point for discussion.
You also need to get your intentions clear - do you want to simulate what is most likely to happen, or do you want to prove that Turner's district could conceivably survive? Your current maps would be good enough, minor corrections aside, to serve the second purpose - but then it hardly needed proving; I would have happily agreed to that immediately.

Yes, this exercise is all about guessing what a reasonable non partisan court would do. I understand that you think my efforts are incompetent. No problem. We will just have to disagree with what a court might reasonably do.  You can put up your own map.

I did do the minority CD's first actually. It was just that I got mixed up with the Velaquez CD,thinking it was the Crowley CD because its Hispanic percentage was so low.  I just screwed up. Stuff happens. It didn't help that the salient that you like so much is only about 30% Hispanic overall, which is in part why the Hispanic percentage in the CD was so low.  I discussed with Muon2 why I didn't go down to the Hispanic island next to the docks.  

As to the balance, below is what you are talking about. There are maybe 20,000 majority Hispanics to pick up in Manhattan. I don't think a court will go there, hopping the East River to pick up these 5 or 6 precincts, particularly since it needs to cut through a few rather low percentage Hispanic precincts.

As to the balance, below is what you are talking about. Maybe 30,000 Hispanics are involved in the precincts that are majority Hispanic. So this is not going to upset any apple cart. However, I do see a few very heavy Hispanic precincts to pick up in Williamsburg that I missed because I was drawing the black CD, and went through there to pick up a couple of precincts with a substantial black precentage (15%-20% or so), and was not focusing on the Hispanic percentages not realizing that it was an existing "Hispanic" CD. So I will correct that. Thank you for your comments Lewis.

[minionofmidas]

I just screwed up. 

Exactly.
Now you're scurrying about like a cat in a litterbox trying to not have to fix it.

[minionofmidas]

Why did i even bother replying.

Oh well. Won't any further.

[Torie]

I just screwed up. 

Exactly.
Now you're scurrying about like a cat in a litterbox trying to not have to fix it.

LOL. I thought I did,  but missed a few precincts, because I was focused on blacks. Thank you for pointing that out.  Have a great day Lewis.

Actually, an idea occurs to me. I am going to see if I can find some Pubbie NYC politician to look at my map when I finally get it right, and see what he or she thinks about it from the standpoint of what a court might do. 

At the rate we're going, you might soon have me on ignore.

[Torie]

The exercise in racial gerrymandering has reached its max. The clockwise turn cannot go any further. Every white precinct in Manhattan has been stripped from NY-14, and that to me is a hard wall. NY-14 can't be stripped any further. To do more, would require crossing into Manhattan from Queens to grab six precincts, sucking up 4 white ones on the way, and so forth, that I don't think any court would do. White cosmopolitan Park Slope is bisected between two black CD's, but such is life. That is the reality of geography and racial gerrymandering. None of the partisan numbers change much. The Hispanic percentages in NY-11 and NY-14 do go up some more, due to emphasizing drawing lines based on racial considerations. Sad, but that is the world in which we live. I hate it!

I will put up the numbers later.

[minionofmidas]

At the rate we're going, you might soon have me on ignore.

Probably, should you up the testosterone dose any further. I think I've located the issue, you see.

Anyways, maxing the racial gerry is a fun exercise I can relate to, but is not of course compatible with trying to simulate what a court might do (and also doesn't mix with retreating the 12th out of Manhattan... not that it affects the basic outline at this point). And there must be a five-digit number of further residents of white precincts in your NY-14, btw. All along the Hudson is white, pretty much. EDIT: Meh, that estimate is probably a bit high.

[minionofmidas]

I thought that when I created a majority Hispanic CD by just giggling the lines a bit, and having looked at the existing Hispanic percentages in Velaquez's CD, that it must have been hers. The percentages just "fit" to well.

That's demographic changes for you.

2000:
NY-7 40% Hispanic, 28% White, 19% Black, 13% Asian. A multiracial district that may go Hispanic eventually, but is safe for its White incumbent for the time being, thanks in part to being a political machine boss first and a Washington rep second.
NY-12 49% Hispanic, 23% White, 16% Asian, 11% Black. Safely Hispanic, also picking up as many Asians as can be along the way. (It was then the second most Asian district in the city, and they were - still are - at the Manhattan and Queens ends.)

2010:
NY-7 44% Hispanic, 21% White, 20% Black, 16% Asian. White flight. Crowley's still safe, but only because he's Crowley.
NY-12 45% Hispanic, 27% White, 18% Asian, 11% Black. Gentrification apace, and not along the edges but in the district's centerpiece, the undivided , but racially mixed neighborhoods of Williamsburg (never really "mixed". Micro-segregated is more like it) and Greenpoint.
And suddenly the 12th looks like the White district. The 11th and 15th also had their White populations increase notably.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, I played with the DRA a bit until it crashed on me.
A few things I noticed: The "Non-Hispanic Origin Black Only" figures of the DRA are really misleading for the Brooklyn-Queens Black districts. CD-6 is currently 54.8% Black, alone or in combination. The DRA has it 5.5 points lower. VAP or Total makes not much difference.
It's certainly not necessary to cross into Long Island at all to keep it over 50%... but I guess it's allowable to use the little majority-black cluster muon also used.
Williamsburg is actually split under the current map too. I never noticed that, lol.
The landbridge in the middle of CD-9 will have to go Black. There is quite literally nowhere else the Brooklyn Black CDs can conceivably go once its accepted that NY-12 will be viewed as a minority seat by a court (that is, nowhere of sufficient population; Park Slope Whites alone won't help you). Even the nearest Hispanic-majority cluster for CD12 to expand into is ... the northernmost part of that bridge.
You can't bring NY-12 much higher than 45% Hispanic VAP (plus a slight increase in the Asian population) without major amendations... so I guess it will look closer to what muon envisaged than I at first thought likely.
At that point, I wondered "why bother, then. Muon's nailed that much"... and just then my pc crashed.